Newbury Horse Racing Trends & Free Tips: Fri 29th Nov 2019

It’s DAY ONE of the Newbury Gold Trophy Meeting this Friday and we’ve four LIVE races on ITV to take in that include the Grade Two Long Distance Hurdle.

Did you know 12 of the last 17 Long Distance Hurdle winners were aged between 7-9 years-old?

As always, here at RACING AHEAD we’ve got all the LIVE races covered with key trends and free tips.

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Newbury Horse Racing Trends (LIVE RacingTV/ITV)

1.50 – Get Your Ladbrokes £1 Free Bet Today Handicap Chase Cl2 (4yo+) 2m3f187y ITV4

12/12 – Won between 1-3 times over fences
11/12 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
10/12 – Aged 9 or younger
10/12 – Didn’t win last time out
10/12 – Carried 10-11 or more in weight
9/12 – Had won over at least 2m4f (fences) before
7/12 – Rated between 131 and 140
7/12 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
7/12 – Had raced in the last 6 weeks
2/12 – Trained by Alan King
2/12 – Trained by Colin Tizzard
0/12 – Winning favourites
Oldgrangewood (6/1) won this race in 2017
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 8/1

Kalashnkov looks set to go off as the favourite and after a recent second in the Old Roan Chase at Aintree should make another bold bid – he’s finished in the top two in 12 of his 13 career runs! However, OLDGRANGEWOOD (e/w), who gets 20lbs off the market leader, won this race in 2017 and after a solid third last time out might be worth having onside again this year – he could be the value against the market leader. This Dan Skelton-trained runner will be fitter for that last run as it came off a break and is also dropped a pound. He’s also now running off a mark 10lbs lower when successful in this race 2 years ago and at the age of 8 still has time on his side. Of the rest, Alan King has done well in the race before so his Azzerti is another to note, while the powerful Nicholls (San Benedeto) and Henderson yards (O O Seven and Wenyerreadyfreddie) are sure to be popular. Gala Ball and Glen Forsa are others to consider.

2.25 – Ladbrokes Novices’ Chase (Registered As The Berkshire Novices’ Chase) (Grade 2) Cl1 (4yo+) 2m4f ITV4

11/12 – Aged 5 or older
11/12 – Returned 7/2 or shorter in the betting
10/12 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
9/12 – Favourites placed in the top 2
9/12 – Ran in the last 7 weeks
7/12 – Yet to win over fences
7/12 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
5/12 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
5/12 – Winning favourites
3/12 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/12 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty
2/12 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 5/2

Some very promising young chasers on show here, including Black Op, Vision Des Flos and Dashel Drasher. Of that trio, Vision Des Flos is the top-rated in the field so commands respect, while Black Op won well on it’s chase debut – making all and winning with plenty in hand. However, CHAMP also won well on his first time over fences and that also came here at Newbury. Therefore, this track experience over the bigger obstacles will be a plus and he had Dashel Drasher 3 ½ lengths back that day too. He’s actually 3-from-3 at the Berkshire track now too, after two hurdles wins here as well. He looks the one to beat again with Barry Geragthy riding.

 

3.00 – Ladbrokes Long Distance Hurdle (Grade 2) Cl1 (4yo+) 3m52y ITV4

14/17 – Grade One winner over hurdles
14/17 – Had won over at least 3m (hurdles) before
12/17 – Won on their seasonal reappearance
12/17 – Winning distance – 3 lengths or more
12/17 – Aged between 7-9 years-old
12/17 – Placed favourites
12/17 – Had won a hurdles race at Newbury before
11/17 – Ran at either Aintree (7) or Cheltenham (4) last time out
10/17 – Winning favourites
9/17 – Returned 15/8 or shorter in the betting
8/17 – French bred
8/17 – Won last time out
7/17 – Returned odds-on in the betting
7/17 – Went onto win that season’s World Hurdle
7/17 – Won by a previous winner of the race
5/17 – Won by trainer Paul Nicholls (inc 5 of last 10 renewals)
Unowhatimeanharry won the race in 2016 & 2018
Beer Goggles won the race in 2017
Thistlecrack won the race in 2015
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 6/1

Just the five runners but we’ve actually the last four winners of the race in attendance again. Thistlecrack won the race in 2015 and at the age of 11 is still going. He’d be a big threat on his best form, but you can’t help thinking his age is a negative. The same would apply to last year’s winner – Unowhatimeanharry – who is also 11 years-old. Of the two old-timers he’s the more reliable and the reports out of the Harry Fry yard have been positive. Beer Googles is the other past winner in the field (2017), but he’s clearly had his issues and has been off the track for 671 days. Therefore, it would be a big ask. The Worlds End is another that can run well and heads here in-form after a solid win at Wetherby last time. But the clear form pick from the five runners is the current champ in this sphere – PAISLEY PARK. This 7 year-old improved bundles over last season to mop-up the Long Walk Hurdle, Cleeve Hurdle and the Stayers’ Hurdle at the Festival and it should be more of the same this season. He’s won first time out for the last two seasons and at the age of 7 should even have more to come.

3.35 – Ladbrokes Handicap Hurdle Cl2 (4yo+ 0-145) 3m52y ITV4

11/12 – Placed 5th or better last time out
11/12 – Raced in the last 4 weeks
11/12 – Carried 10-10 or more in weight
10/12 – Raced at either Cheltenham (5), Wincanton (3) or Wetherby (2) last time
10/12 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
9/12 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
8/12 – Placed favourites
8/12 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
8/12 – Irish-bred winners
7/12 – Won just 1-2 times over hurdles
7/12 – Yet to win over 3m (or further) over hurdles
5/12 – Winning favourites
5/12 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
3/12 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
2/12 – Ridden by Richard Johnson
Viva Le Roi won this race in 2018
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 9/1

Vive Le Roi won this race 12 months ago so has to be considered but needs to bounce back from unseating last time out and is also 8lbs higher this time. It was good to see CHAMPERS ON ICE (e/w) return to winning form last time out at Ffos Las – he did it well from the front that day and is a past course winner that will handle the soft ground. He’s up 5lbs for that win, but is still well-treated on old form and with the Pipe yard going well might be hard to peg back – one for the shortlist. As I See It, Anytime Will Do and One For The Team are others to note, but the Hobbs yard have a decent record in this race so their runners – Dolphin Square and SAMBURU SHUJAA (e/w) are the others to fear. Of the pair, the later might be the better value and has Dickie Johnson riding too. Yes, he flopped in the Pertemps Final Hurdle at the Festival last season, but was improving prior to that – winning twice at Chepstow. It might just have been a race too many as that was his seventh run of the season and he’s only a 6 year-old. With another summer to freshen-up and get stronger then he looks a horse that could have more to come still.

 

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