Saturday TV Horse Racing Trends & Tips: 24th Oct 2020

Doncaster Horse Racing Trends (ITV/ATR)


1.45 –Doncaster Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 6f ITV

12/12 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
11/12 – Raced in the last 4 weeks
11/12 – Drawn in stall 9 or lower
11/12 – Foaled in February or later
11/12 – Had won over 6f before
11/12 – Won between 1-2 times before
10/12 – Won last time out
9/12 – Carried 9-1 in weight
9/12 – Favourites placed in the top 3
8/12 – Raced at York, Nottingham or Kempton last time out
8/12 – Drawn in stall 6 or lower
8/12 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
6/12 – March-born foals
6/12 – Irish bred
5/12 – Winning favourites
2/12 – Trained by the Richard Hannon yard
2/12 – Trained by Brian Meehan
Trainer Marco Botti has won 2 of the last 4 runnings

RACING AHEAD VERDICT: Only six runners here and the four last time out winners in the field – Helmont, Intrusive, Just Frank and Shark Two One all look improving sorts, but the ratings suggest Zamaani and LIPIZZANER are the ones to beat. The former hails from the Simon and Ed Crisford yard and was last seen running a close second in the 2 year-old Trophy at Redcar. With seven races he’s the most experienced in the race but I’d just be a tad worried he’s now three races without a win and was turned over at 4/7 in one of those races. Therefore, for me, the Aidan O’Brien runner – Lipizzaner – just shades it. This 2 year-old has had plenty of experience too (6 runs) and should find this slight drop in grade more to his liking after running at Group level the last twice. He was a fair 6th in the G1 Middle Park Stakes and that form would make him hard to beat. If there is a slight niggle it might be the trip (6f) as his only win came over 5f and his breeding suggests he’d probably not want it to get any softer, but Ryan Moore takes the ride so that helps and I’m hoping his class sees him though in this Listed race.

2.20 – Vertum Very Different Stockbrokers Handicap Cl2 (3yo+ 0-105) 5f ITV4

15/15 – Ran 5 or more times that season
14/15 – Had won over 5f before
14/15 – Aged 5 or younger
12/15 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
10/15 – Returned 9/1 or bigger in the betting
10/15 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
9/15 – Carried 8-10 or less
9/15 – Unplaced favourites
9/15 – Had run at Doncaster before (4 won)
5/15 – Ran at Pontefract (3) or Ayr (2) last time out
5/15 – Won last time out
4/15 – Winning favourites
2/15 – Winners from stall 1
2/15 – Ridden by Oisin Murphy
2/15 – Trained by Andrew Balding (2 of last 6)
1/15 – Winning mare/filly
Tarboosh (8/1 jfav) won the race in 2018
9 of the last 12 winners came from a double-figure stall

RACING AHEAD VERDICT: The Paul Midgley team won this race when it was last staged in 2018 and try again, this time with Tanasoq and Orvar. In fact, Orvar, plus Victory Angel and Venturous are the three proven course winners in the field so have that in their favour, while with 14 of the last 15 winners aged 5 or younger then the older runners in the field – Orvar, Victory Angel, Tanasoq, Venturous and Dark Shot are overlooked. Wrenthorpe is the only last time out winner in the line-up but he’s up 5lbs for that recent Nottingham win and is also up in grade here – so more is needed. If you can forgive the last run of Came From The Dark then a case can certainly be made for this Ed Walker runner, while the consistent Mighty Spirit should be thereabouts off a light weight, but with just one career win from 15 is a horse that is placed more often than winning. So, a chance is taken on the Oisin Murphy-ridden ISHVARA (e/w). Murphy has ridden the winner of this race twice since 2013 and this Robert Cowell runner looks to be running into form after a close second at Leicester last time. He’s off the same mark here and seems to act on any ground so any more rain would be fine too.

2.55 – Vertem Futurity Trophy (Group 1) (Entire Colts & Fillies) (CLASS 1) (2yo) ITV 1m

16/18 – Winning distance – 1 ¼ lengths or more
16/18 – Had won either 1 or 2 races before
15/18 – Placed favourites
15/18 – Foaled in February or later
15/18 – Finished in the top two last time out
15/18 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
13/18 – Had raced at least twice previously
12/18 – Winning favourites
11/18 – Won their last race
11/18 – Foaled in either Feb or March
11/18 – Ran at either the Curragh (3) or Newmarket (7) last time out
10/18 – Had won over a mile in the past
7/18 – Won by an Irish-based yard
6/18 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
4/18 – Won by a Montjeu-bred colt
4/18 – Ridden by Andrea Atzeni (won 4 of the last 7)
4/18 – Went onto win the 2,000 Guineas (inc the last 3 winners)
3/18 – Went onto win the Epsom Derby
1/18 – Went onto win the St Leger
Five winners have gone onto win the following season’s Epsom Derby
Aidan O’Brien has won the race 9 times – 1997, 1999, 2001, 2002, 2009, 2011, 2012, 2017 & 2018
The average SP in the last 18 runnings is 13/2

Note: The 2006 renewal was staged at Newbury
Note: The 2019 renewal was staged at Newcastle

RACING AHEAD VERDICT: One Ruler, for Godolphin, looks an exciting colt that won well last time when stepped up to a mile for the first time. He should have a lot more to come, acts well on soft ground should there be any more rain and is at least proven over this 1m trip – William Buick rides. However, the clear form pick, for me, is the Aidan O’Brien runner – WEMBLEY – who can hopefully hit the back of the net for the Ballydoyle yard and give O’Brien an incredible tenth win in this Group One. He’s been placed at G1 level the last twice over 7f – most recently a ¾ runner-up in the Dewhurst. But the key is the step up to 1m. He’s been looking as if he’s crying out for this extra yardage after staying on well in both those recent races. His breeding also suggests his future lies over at least a mile and more likely further, while he’s acted well on all ground. Ryan Moore will ride and with O’Brien having a terrific record in this race that’s the final plus. Of the rest, Andrew Balding won this race 12 months ago and tries again with a horse called King Vega. He’s still a maiden from just two runs but the signs in the betting suggest he’s thought to be up to this G1 level and has to be respected too. STATE OF REST (e/w), for trainer Joseph O’Brien, has decent form too and was only a length behind the useful Chindit in the Champagne Stakes last time out here so that track experience will be a plus. Tom Marquand rides and the O’Brien jnr yard are having a good time of it this season when sending their runners over to the UK – he can give his dad’s horse most to think about.

Newbury Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)


3.35 – Cancom Stakes Stakes (Registered As The Horris Hill Stakes) (Group 3) Cl1 7f ITV

15/16 – Foaled in Feb or later
13/16 – Priced 15/2 or shorter in the betting
13/16 – Won just 1 or 2 races before
11/16 – Never raced at Newbury
12/16 – Placed 1st or 2nd last time out
11/16 – Had at least 3 previous career runs
10/16 – Drawn in stall 5 or higher
9/16 – Favourites unplaced
8/16 – Won over 7f before
8/16 – Won their last race
7/16 – Foaled in February
7/16 – Winning distance – ¾ lengths or less
4/16 – Trained by the Richard Hannon yard
4/16 – Raced at Newmarket last time out
1/16 – Winning favourites

RACING AHEAD VERDICT: The Gary Moore-trained Champagne Piaff was a nice winner at Salisbury last time out on only it’s second start and should have more to come as also looked a bit green that day. More is needed in this better race too, but he’s certainly a horse on the up to note. Trainer Richard Hannon has a fair record in the race too so his Fountain Cross can’t be totally ruled out, but is starting to look a bit exposed with 8 runs now and was well behind LANEQASH at Doncaster last time out in the Listed Flying Scotsman Stakes. That looks decent form and with that coming on only his second career run should have more in the locker. Jockey Jim Crowley also prefers to ride him over the other Maktoum runner in the field – Mujbar. Of the rest, Percy’s Lad is 2-from-2 so has done little wrong, but this is harder, while Nastase and Autumn Twilight were both nice winners last time out. But the other improver in the race could be the John Gosden runner – EXISTENT (e/w) – who bolted up last time at HQ when facing heavy ground. That also came over this 7f trip and even though this is a big step up in grade the ability to handle conditions will be a big plus and this Kingman colt is taken to go well too with Cieren Fallon booked to ride.

4.10 – Teddington RBL Poppy Appeal Stakes (Registered As The St Simon) (Group 3) Cl1 1m4f5y ITV

17/17 – Aged 5 or younger
15/17 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
15/17 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
15/17 – Had won at least twice before
14/17 – Had at least 4 runs that season
13/17 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
12/17 – Placed favourites
11/17 – Rated 107 or higher
10/17 – Had run at Newbury before (4 won)
10/17 – Drawn in stall 6 or higher
10/17 – Placed horses from stall 6
7/17 – Winners from stalls 6 or 8
6/17 – Won by a filly or mare
6/17 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
5/17 – Winning favourites
3/17 – Won last time out
3/17 – Trained by Andrew Balding
1/17 – Winners from stall 1
Morando (8/1) won the race in 2018
Young Rascal (Evs) won this race in 2017

RACING AHEAD VERDICT: Course winner – Raymond Tusk – would be interesting if back to his best – he was only beaten 5 lengths in the Melbourne Cup last year, but has been off the track for 285 days so that would be a concern. Euchen Glen was a surprise winner of the Cumberland Lodge Stakes a few weeks ago and if able to back that up would be a player. Yes, he does have to give weight away to the others as a result but he handles the ground well and this doesn’t look the strongest G3 ever run so he might just be able to back that up. He’s won two of his last three now and in between that was 4th to the useful Addeybb at Ayr, so not too shabby form. Maybe he’s found a new lease of life at the age of 7! The Queen’s NATURAL HISTORY has won it’s last two and is the danger. This Andrew Balding runner has now won it’s last two since returning from a long break and also from being gelded and is still lightly-raced enough (7 runs) to think there could be more still to come. Of the rest, course winner Away He Goes, plus the Roger Varian runner – Litigator – have squeaks, while the top-rated runner in the field – Alounak – has to have a mention but does need to bounce back to form and is now seven races without success.

Cheltenham Horse Racing Trends ITV/RacingTV)

 

2.05 – Masterson Holdings Hurdle Cl2 2m110y ITV

8/11 – Having their first run of the new jumps season
6/11 – Returned 3/1 or shorter in the betting
6/11 – Carried 10-12 in weight
6/11 – Placed in their last race
5/11 – Irish bred winners
4/11 – Favourites placed
4/11 – Won 3 times over hurdles previously
3/11 – Winning favourites
3/11 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
Quel Destin (1st 7/2) won the race in 2019

RACING AHEAD VERDICT: Paul Nicholls has a good record in this race so his Stratagem will be very popular. He was an easy winner at Kelso last time out and should be revved-up to run well here despite a 238-day absence. He’ll be looking to give his owner David Maxwell something to cheer about after the popular jockey suffered a bad fall recently. Anna Bunina heads over from Ireland and gets the fillies’ allowance so could be dangerous with only 10st 5lbs to carry and it’s interesting that Richard Johnson has been booked to ride too! She’s fit from several runs in Ireland too and off that featherweight could be hard to beat. But the negative would be that she was pulled-up on her only run here at Cheltenham (Mares’ race at the Festival), albeit at 100/1. Zurekin, Nordano and The Pink’n are all certainly useful prospects too, but Allmankind and BOTOX HAS are the ones for me here. Allmankind got the better of Botox here last November by 2 ½ lengths off level weights but the Moore runner gets a handy 4lbs here this time and I feel he’s improved since too. He followed that run up with an easy win at Cheltenham and connections have taken their time since. His proven course experience will be a big plus and he’s taken to improve again this season. Of course, Allmankind won’t be a pushover and was last seen running third in the Triumph here in March, but had Goshen not unseated Jamie Moore at the last that day he’d have been fourth and well back so the actual form of that run might look a tiny bit better than it actually is – we’ll see.

 

2.40 – Best Odds At Matchbook Novices’ Chase (GBB Race) Cl2 (4yo+) 2m4f ITV4

10/10 – Won no more than 3 times over fences
9/10 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
9/10 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
7/10 – Had run at Cheltenham before
7/10 – Unplaced favourites
7/10 – Had run over hurdles at Cheltenham in the past (3 won)
7/10 – Won between 0-1 times over fences
6/10 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
5/10 – Won over at least 2m4f (fences)
3/10 – Won last time out
3/10 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/10 – Trained by Gordon Elliott
2/10 – Trained by Colin Tizzard
1/10 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 10/3

RACING AHEAD VERDICT: Just the four runners, but this could be another one for the Paul Nicholls yard, that have won this race three times since 2010 – they run Southfield Stone This 7 year-old has run well off a break in the past so the 245-day break is fine and it’s interesting he’s also had a wind op over the summer. He’s had a habit of jumping a bit left during his races but that might not be as big an issue here at Cheltenham – he can go well. Of the rest, Coole Cody is a proven course winner but you feel Nicholls might have a line on this one as he was beaten by his Solider Of Love last time out, while at the age of 9 might not have the scope of the others. Not That Fuisse has had the benefit of a recent run and that will help, after winning well at Perth last month. But a chance is taken on the Philip Hobbs runner PILEON to get off the mark over fences at the first try. He’s got useful hurdles form and was a close second in the Martin Pipe race at the Festival here in March. Dickie Johnson will help in the saddle and he’s sure to have been well-schooled for this – he could be a nice prospect and at the age of 6 might just have more improvement over fences than the other three.

 

3.15 – Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle (Series Qualifier) Cl2 2m7f208y ITV

8/11 – Priced 17/2 or bigger in the betting
8/11 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
7/11 – Carried 10-13 or less in weight
8/11 – Had run at Cheltenham before (4 winners)
7/11 – Aged between 6-8 years-old
7/11 – Last ran 6 month+ ago
6/11 – Unplaced favourites
5/11 – Won last time out
4/11 – Irish Bred
2/11 – Mare winners
2/11 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
2/11 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
2/11 – Winning favourites
Tobefair (8/1) won this race in 2019

RACING AHEAD VERDICT:  Speredek has lost his way a bit over the last few seasons after running well in the 2018 Clarence House so needs to bounce back and is now 13 races without a win (2018). TOBEFAIR won this race 12 months ago and has to be one for the shortlist after running well in the Stayers’ Hurdle here too in March (6th). He’s only 2lbs higher than his win last year but connections are putting on the useful 5lb claimer Jack Tudor to help with his 11st 12lb in weight and that would bring him right into the mix. Yes, it’s still a lot of weight, but it’s hard to ignore his recent track record here at Prestbury Park – 2-1-1-3-4-6! Because Tobefair is in the race that means the bulk get in here with very light weights though – with a massive 16 of the 18 runners having only 10st 8lbs to carry! Tom Lacey’s Neville’s Cross has won his last two well and can’t be ruled out, but is up a massive 12lbs for the last of those wins. Sirrobbie, Story Of Friends and I’d Better Go Now are others to consider, but the other of interest is the Philip Hobbs runner – FLINCK (e/w). This 6 year-old hails from the Philip Hobbs yard, that have a good fair record in the race. He should be a lot fitter for a recent third at Chepstow and the way he ran on that day over 2m4f suggests this 3m trip will worth a crack and could bring out more improvement – Richard Johnston rides. It’s worth noting that Hobbs also has COTSWOLD WAY (e/w) in the race – he was sixth in the same race Flinck ran in last time, but was also staying on well to indicate this trip might suit and off a dropping mark of 129 might be dangerous with only 10st 3lbs to carry – of the bigger-priced runners he’s interesting.



3.50 – Matchbook Betting Exchange Handicap Chase Cl2 3m1f ITV

12/13 – Priced 10/1 or shorter in the betting market
12/13 – Won over at least 3m previously
10/13 – First run of the season
10/13 – Winning distance – 3 lengths or less
9/13 – Rated 134 or higher
9/13 – Irish bred winners
8/13 – Carried 10-11 or more in weight
8/13 – Favourites unplaced
7/13 – Had won at Cheltenham previously
6/13 – Won by a horse aged 8 years-old
6/13 – Unplaced in their last race
5/13 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
5/13 – Ridden by jockey Richard Johnson
1/13 – Winning Favourites
The Conditional (14/1) won the race in 2019
Cogry (13/2) won the race in 2017
Cogry was 2nd in the race last year
Relentless Dreamer (16/1) won the race in 2018

RACING AHEAD VERDICT: The big star here is the 2019 Ryanair Chase winner – FRODON – who returns in a handicap giving a lot of weight way. As a result, several runners will be running out of the handicap and he’s got to give 17lbs+ away to the rest – with the next highest rated runner in the field West Approach. It’s an interesting move by Nicholls, but he must feel he’s up to the task and maybe feel that he’s used to carrying this sort of weight in Graded races anyway – he’ll be ridden by regular jockey – Bryony Frost, who has a 39% record riding over fences at the track. Course winner – Perfect Candidate – would have a chance on old form but at 13 years-old is not getting any younger, while Cogry, who won this race in 2017 and was runner-up last year, so has to be one for the shortlist – even though he’s aging too at 11. The in-form Manofthemountain will catch the eye of punters with a string of 1’s after his name. He certainly looks progressive and has won 4 of his 5 chase runs – 8lbs higher this time though makes life harder and taking on a rival like Frodon. Course winner’s Cobra De Mai, Bob Maher and Sensulano are others to consider but the danger can come from the Jonjo O’Neill runner CLOTH CAP (e/w), with just 10st to carry. This Jonjo O’Neill runner stays further than this after running third in the 2019 Scottish National in the past and at the age of 8 could have more to come.

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