Saturday Horse Racing Trends & Free Tips: 7th Sept 2019

This Saturday the ITV cameras head to Haydock, Kempton and Ascot to take in races across the three venues. The Group One Sprint Cup is the clear highlight of the weekend from Haydock – Did you know that 14 of the last 17 Sprint Cup winners were aged 5 or younger, while 12 of the last 17 came from stalls 5 or higher?

So, as always, we’ve got it all covered here at RACING AHEAD with all the key trends, plus our verdict, on each of the LIVE ITV races – we’re confident these trends will point you in the direction of a few winners, or at least help narrow down some of the big fields – So, let’s get cracking!


Saturday 7th September 2019


HAYDOCK Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV)

 – Garswood Handicap Cl2 1m6f ITV

10/10 – Came from stalls 3-10 (inc)
10/10 – Had run in the last 4 weeks
9/10 – Had won over at least 1m4f before
8/10 – Rated between 81-89 (inc)
8/10 – Carried 9-1 or less in weight
8/10 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
6/10 – Came from stalls 6-10 (inc)
6/10 – Irish Bred
6/10 – Placed favourites
5/10 – Won last time out
5/10 – Ran at either York (2) or Newbury (2) last time out
4/10 – Winning favourites
Mekong (9/4) won the race in 2018

RACING AHEAD VERDICT: Many promising sorts on show here with seven of the 12 runners last time out winners. Despite being run over this 1m6f trip it’s interesting that ALL of the last 10 winners came from stalls 3-10 – so if that’s to be repeated then Alemagna, Elysian Flame, Laafy, Zoffee, Calculation, Gabrials Boy, Trueshan and Mondain fit the bill. All of the last 10 winners had also run in the last 4 weeks, while 8 of the last 10 were rated between 81 and 89. Of the recent winners – Moon King – has done little wrong in winning it’s last five races and is a CD winner too, but is another 9lbs higher here and upped in grade. The same applies to the Queen’s Calculation, who is also a CD winner and has won it’s last three. He’s up 7lbs from last time but looks a fast-improving stayer – with Ryan Moore and Stoute teaming-up, he’ll be popular. Frankie and Gosden are also in partnership here with First In Line, who ran well to be second at York in the Melrose last time out and is only 4lbs higher – he should have more to come. However, getting the weight the two that might be value against the main players are – LAAFY (e/w) and ELYSIAN FLAME (e/w). Both were recent winners last time out with the former another from the Stoute yard. With Moore riding their other runner this one might go under the radar a bit, but he was a good winner at Nottingham last time over this trip and any rain would help his cause. Elysian Flame is a proven course winner that won’t mind any rain either. The step up in trip is an unknown but he won well over 1m4f last time to suggest it’s worth a crack.

2.25 – Unibet Mile (Registered as The Superior Mile Stakes) (Group 3) Cl1 1m ITV

13/15 – Won over 1m or further before
13/15 – Won 3 or more times before
12/15 – Winning distance 1 length or more
12/15 – Had won a Listed or better race before
11/15 – Returned 11/2 or shorter in the betting
11/15 – Had 3 or more runs that season
9/15 – Placed favourites
8/15 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
7/15 – Ran at either York or Ascot last time out
6/15 – Winning favourites
4/15 – Won last time out
3/15 – Had won at Haydock before
3/15 – Trained by Roger Charlton
3/15 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
5 of the last 10 winners came from stalls 1 or 4
Here Comes When (3/1) won the race in 2018

RACING AHEAD VERDICT: HERE COMES WHEN (e/w) took this race last season and it looks like he’s had this prize as a target again. He’s lightly-raced this season with just one run back in May, but has gone well fresh in the past and the booking of Oisin Murphy is a plus. Any rain would help his cause too. Of the rest, Sharja Bridge is the top-rated in the field so commands respect and after running in Group Ones the last twice will find this ease in grade more to his liking. The unbeaten Miss O Connor was a Listed winner here last time out and looks to be going the right way. The Haggas yard do well with their 4 year-olds at the track, but this is another step up and might just lack for experience for me (only had 3 runs). Raising Sand and Great Scot are other CD winners at the track too so can’t be ruled out, while What’s The Story was a good York winner last time and will have the in-form Danny Tudhope riding, while Moore riding for Hannon – Walkinthesand – is a reason why this one might be supported.

3.35 – Old Borough Cup Handicap Cl2 1m6f ITV

15/16 – Had won over at least 1m4f before
15/16 – Had won at least twice before
14/16 – Had run 4 or more times that season
14/16 – Aged 3, 4 or 5 years-old
13/16 – Finished 4th or better last time out
12/16 – Rated 90 to 101
12/16 – Drawn in stall 7 or higher
9/16 – Winning distance ¾ lengths or less
8/16 – Carried 9-0 or more
8/16 – Had run over 1m6f before
7/16 – Ran at Haydock before
6/16 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
6/16 – Ran at York last time out
4/16 – Trained by Mark Johnston
2/16 – Ridden by Joe Fanning
Reshoun (6/1) won the race in 2018

RACING AHEAD VERDICT: We’ve another race with the winner from last year running – Reshoun. This Ian Williams runner has not won since but is now only 3lbs higher than last year. He won by an easy 3 ¼ lengths that day so can’t be ruled out, but will be a lot better if the ground turns soft. 3, 4 and 5 year-olds have the best record in the race so Clever Cookie (11), Not So Sleepy (7), Rainbow Dreamer (6), Arrowtown (7), Restorer (7), Putting Green (7) and My Reward (7) would have this as a negative. Time To Study, who also represents last year’s winning trainer, bounced back to form last time out with a good win in France, while the hat-trick seeking ALRIGHT SUNSHINE is certainly going the right way. Yes, a 5lb rise makes life harder again but he looked to have a bit left after his win at Musselburgh last time out and has now won 3 of his 5 flat runs. Danny Tudhope rides. Of the rest, the Stoute yard run two – Crystal King and MELTING DEW (e/w). The last-named is the pick of Ryan Moore and might just be running into form. This 5 year-old was an improved fourth at York last out and gets in here off the same mark. The drop back to 1m6f is fine and any rain will be a plus too.


4.10 – Sprint Cup (British Champions Series) (Group 1) Cl1 6f ITV

15/17 – Unplaced horses from stall 1
14/17 – Aged 5 or younger
14/17 – Had 4 or more career wins to their name
14/17 – Rated 111 or higher
14/17 – Had won over 6f before
13/17 – Didn’t win their previous race
13/17 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
12/17 –Had 4 or more runs that season
12/17 – Winning distance 1 length or less
12/17 – Drawn in stall 5 or higher
11/17 – Had won a Group race before
9/17 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
9/17 – Ran at Deauville (4) or York (5) last time out
8/17 – Had run at Haydock before (3 had won)
7/17 – Drawn in a double-figure stall
7/17 – Had won a Group 1 before
5/17 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 17 years is 9/1

RACING AHEAD VERDICT: With two of the big midweek fancies – Ten Sovereigns and Advertise – ruled out of the race this gives a much more wide-open feel to this Group One.THE TIN MAN (e/w)was a good winner of the race last year and despite not having a great season so far can’t be discounted and if back on-song might be worth an each-way interest. He certainly won’t mind the softer ground and might just be worth giving one more chance too. Fairyland and the Charles Hills runner –Khaademare big players too, especially the later. This 3 year-old was a very easy winner of the Stewards’ Cup at Goodwood last time out and deserves to take his chance in this better race. He looks useful, but this is a huge rise in grade.Brando can go well too and is a proven CD winner here, plus runner-up in this race 12 months ago, while if you can forgive it’s last run, then Dream Of Dreams would enter the mix on his close second to Blue Point in the Diamond Jubilee at Royal Ascot back in June. Finally, German raider –Waldfad is turning into a consistent sprinter and shouldn’t be far away, but the other play here is going to be HELLO YOUMZAIN (e/w).This CD winner was beaten less than two lengths behind Advertise in the Commonwealth Cup, but I feel the softer ground and this track will suit better. James Doyle catches the eye in the saddle too, while with just 6 career runs should have more to come.

Ascot Horse Racing Trends (ATR/ITV)

2.45 – Cunard Handicap Cl2 7f ITV

Only 8 previous runnings
8/8 – Didn’t win last time out
8/8 – Had run at the course before
8/8 – Had won over 7f before
8/8 – Had raced in the last 6 weeks
8/8 – Winning distance 1 ¼ lengths or less
7/8 – Carried 9-0 or less in weight
6/8 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
6/8 – Irish bred
6/8 – Unplaced last time out
4/8 – Rated between 95-97
4/8 – Had between 4-7 wins already
3/8 – Aged 5 years-old
2/8 – Winners from stall 12
0/8 – Winning favourites
Ripp Orf (7/1) won the race in 2018

RACING AHEAD VERDICT: Several old favourites here. Tabarrak, Breanski and Shady McCoy are past CD winners that can go well, but another horse that loves it here at Ascot is RIPP ORF. This 5 year-old actually took this race 12 months ago too and a recent second at Newbury suggests he’s heading here in tip-top order. Any rain is fine and this 7f trip is his best. Yes, he might be a tad short in the betting for a race of this nature, but he looks sure to be involved and is only a pound higher than when winning this last season. Two of the last 8 winners have come from stall 12, so ESCOBAR (e/w) will be trying to add to that record so might be worth a small saver too, while with 6 of the last 8 winners aged 4 or 5 years-old this is another key trend to have on side. Of the 17 runners, this is a negative for Tabarrak, Spanish City, Sanaash, Pogo, Ventura Ocean, Fanaar and Shady McCoy.

3.55 – Lavazza Stakes (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 1m4f ITV

Only 9 previous runnings
7/9 – Rated between 84-95
7/9 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
6/9 – Had won just once before
5/9 – Horses placed from stall 10
5/9 – Returned a double-figure price
5/9 – Carried 9-0 or more
5/9 – Had run at Ascot before (3 won)
4/9 – Horses placed from stall 8
4/9 – Won last time out
3/9 – Ran at Ascot last time out
3/9 – Winning favourites (1 co, 1 joint)
2/9 – Won by trainer Saeed Bin Suroor
Note: the 2015 running was a dead-heat
Duke Of Bronte (5/2 jfav) won the race in 2018

RACING AHEAD VERDICT: This could end up being a bit of a battle between the boys in blue of Godolphin and the Maktoum clan as they’ve both got two runners in the race. Godolphin run Cirque Royal, who won his last two, plus Court Poet, while Maktoum has Faylaq and Baasem. They all bring a decent level of form to the table. However, it was hard to not be impressed with the way the Owen Burrows-trained BAASEM won last time at Doncaster. This 3 year-old got the job done by 14 lengths and despite being raised 12lbs for that looks a fast-improving middle distance performer. He’s won on a variety of ground too, so no issues there. Of the Godolphin pair, jockey bookings suggest the William Buick-ridden Cirque Royal is their main player. He’s not been out since March, but we can expect him to be tuned up for this and was last seen winning easily at Lingfield by 7 lengths. Of the rest, the Mark Johnston runners – I’ll Have Another and Persian Moon have each-way squeaks, while the Gosden runner – Travel On – and the consistent Balding-trained entry – Never Do Nothing – must enter calculations too.

Kempton Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV)


2.05 – Sun Racing September Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 1m4f ITV

12/13 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
11/13 – Had won a Listed or Group race before
10/13 – Placed favourites
9/13 – Didn’t win last time out
9/13 – Had won between 4-7 times before
9/12 – Had won over 1m4f before
9/13 – Winning distance – 1 ¼l or more
8/13 – Horses from stall 2 that finished in the top 3
8/13 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
7/13 – Had run at Kempton before
5/13 – Ran at York (3) or Windsor (2) last time out
5/13 – Aged 4 years-old
5/13 – Winning favourites
4/13 – Godolphin-owned runners
3/13 – Winners from stall 2
3/13 – Trained by Saeed Bin Suroor
1/13 – Winners from stall 1
Enable (8/15) won the race in 2018

RACING AHEAD VERDICT: John Gosden used this race for Enable to get a prep run before heading to the Arc last season and he’s got another with a fair chance – Royal Line. This 5 year-old isn’t heading to France but still has the form to go well here. He was a fair fourth of the Listed Gala Stakes at Sandown last time out and can be expected to have come on for that race as it came off a break. The step back up to 1m4f will also be in his favour. Sun Maiden and the CD winner Gibbs Hill can make their presence felt, but the ratings suggest BEST SOLUTION is the one to beat. This Godolphin runner is the top-rated in the race at 121 and despite a break is a horse that goes well fresh. This drop into a Group Three will be easier for him and looks to be using this race for a stepping stone for some bigger engagements later in the year. Thundering Blue and Prince Of Arran are others to note, but the later might just find this trip a tad on the short side.

3.15 – Sun Racing ‘London Mile’ Handicap (Series Final) Cl2 1m ITV


13/13 – Had run at Kempton before
11/13 – Had won over a mile before
11/13 – Won between 3-7 times before
11/13 – Unplaced favourites
9/13 – Aged 4 years-old
9/13 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
7/13 – Returned 20/1 or bigger in the betting
5/13 – Rated between 77-85
5/13 – Horses from stall 9 that finished in the top 3
4/13 – Ran at Kempton last time out
4/13 – Won last time out
2/13 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
1/13 – Winning favourites
5 of the last 7 winners came from stalls 14 (3) or 16 (2)
War Glory (20/1) won the race in 2018

RACING AHEAD VERDICT: A very open race, with many chances. The Fellowes camp have two runners – Freerolling and Mayfair Spirit – but both need to bounce back from average last runs. Horses from stall 9 have gone well in this race in recent years so FELIX THE POET (e/w) might be worth chancing. This Archie Watson runner was only 2 lengths behind another runner here – Kuwait Currency – over this course and distance last time but is 5lbs better off this time. Of the rest, CD winners – Kasbaan, Motawaj, Directory, Gossiping and King’s Slipper are others to consider, but the Watson yard have a fair 25% record with their 3 year-olds at the track so I’m happy to stick with Felix.


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