I used to think February was a bit of a dull month when it came to the racing, but actually I’m changing my opinion…it’s not half bad.
As well as the races already covered in this edition, we also the decent Newbury Saturday card on February 13 that includes the Denman Chase, Betfair Exchange Chase (Game Spirit) and the Betfair Hurdle. It’s that last-named race I’m going to focus on now in more detail. For markets on the Betfair Hurdle and any other popular horse race, get yourself online for up to the minute odds.
Generally, one of the most competitive handicap hurdles on the calendar, this Grade Three contest is run over 2m 1/2f and is always well-supported by the big National Hunt yards – backed up in recent years with the Paul Nicholls, Nigel Twiston-Davies and Nicky Henderson stables winning six of the last nine renewals between them.
So, what are the other main trends to look for?
Weight – Being a handicap weight carried is, of course, worth considering. ALL of the last 18 winners carried 11st 8lbs or less, which will be the bulk of the runners, but we can take this trend a bit further with 10 of the last 18 carrying 10st 9lbs or less. However, a small word of caution here as this weight trend could be taking a turn in the other direction as the last four winners all carried 11st 1lb or more, with 6 of the last 9 also ticking that stat.
Age – In short, horses aged 7 or younger have dominated this race in recent times – winning 17 of the last 18. In fact, a 5 or 6 year-old has won ALL of the last 14 renewals too! Since 1988, we’ve only seen two winners aged older than 7 years-old – King Credo (1993) and Geos (2000).
Recent Form – With 15 of the last 18 (83%) winners having raced in the last 8 weeks, this is another trend to look for, while that same percentage also finished in the first three in their most recent outing. With 8 of the last 18 (44%) winners having won last time out too this is a fairly high percentage for such a competitive race. In summary, we are looking for horses that have been on the track in the last few months, that either won last time out or finished in the top three.
Betting – Despite the race being ultra-competitive, it’s generally one the punters have done well in. Okay, 12 months ago we saw a 33/1 winner in Pic D’Orhy, but with that one being trained by Paul Nicholls you feel he wouldn’t have been totally unsupported. However, in the last 18 runnings we’ve seen a massive 7 winning favourites (39%), while 50% came from the top five in the betting and 78% hailed from the first seven in the market.
Stables To Note – In the intro I mentioned the Paul Nicholls, Nicky Henderson and Nigel Twiston-Davies yards, who all have a fine recent record in the race. Twiston-Davies has landed three of the last seven runnings, so is just edging it, but with five overall successes anything the Henderson camp run should also be respected.
Nicholls won the race 12 months ago, so will be keen to follow-up, plus he also took the prize in 2012. The other yard to have on your radar is the Gary Moore camp – they’ve won this three times since 2007 and are sure to be firing a few bullets again in 2021.
Recent Betfair Hurdle Winners
2020 – PIC D’ORHY (33/1)
2019 – AL DANCER (5/2 fav)
2018 – KALASHINKOV (8/1 co-fav)
2017 – BALLYANDY (3/1 fav)
2016 – AGRAPART (16/1)
2015 – VIOLET DANCER (20/1)
2014 – SPLASH OF GINGE (33/1)
2013 – MY TENT OR YOURS (5/1 fav)
2012 – ZARKANDAR (11/4 fav)
2011 – RECESSION PROOF (12/1)
2010 – GET ME OUT OF HERE (6/1)
2009 – No race
2008 – WINGMAN (14/1)
2007 – HEATHCOTE (50/1)
2006 – No race
2005 – ESSEX (4/1 fav)
2004 – GEOS (16/1)
2003 – SPIRIT LEADER (14/1)
2002 – COPELAND (13/2)
2001 – LANDING LIGHT (4/1 fav)
Betfair Hurdle Betting Trends
18/18 – Carried 11-8 or less in weight
17/18 – Aged 7 or younger
16/18 – Rated 130 or higher
15/18 – Won between 2-4 times over hurdles in the UK/IRE before
15/18 – Had raced within last 8 weeks
15/18 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
15/18 – Aged either 5 or 6 years-old
14/18 – Came from first 7 in the betting
14/18 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
13/18 – Won by 3 lengths or less
13/18 – Placed favourites
10/18 – Carried 10-9 or less in weight
9/18 – Came from top 5 in the betting
9/18 – Returned a double-figure price
8/18 – Irish bred
8/18 – Won last time out
8/18 – Aged 5 years-old (8 of last 14)
7/18 – Winning favourites
4/18 – Raced at Cheltenham last time
3/18 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (has won the race 5 times in all)
3/18 – Trained by Gary Moore
3/18 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies (3 of the last 7)
2/18 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (2 of the last 9)
2/18 – Raced at Leopardstown last time out
2/18 – Owned by JP McManus
1/18 – Went onto win the County Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival that season (Spirit Leader 2003)
23 of the last 24 winners have been aged 7 or younger
The average winning SP in the last 18 runnings is 14/1
