I am not going to look specifically ahead
to August, but with this being such an unusual season I wanted to offer up a
few ante-post bets as we hit the second half of the campaign.
I was really disappointed to hear that
Magical was taken out of the King George as I thought she would be more of a
match for Enable than in previous encounters.
I know the John Gosden trained mare has
had her number in the past, but MAGICAL lived up to her name on
her season debut at the Curragh when making some nice horses look like
telephone boxes when she was let down.
In contrast, albeit against better
opposition in the Eclipse, Enable looked sluggish and to my eyes didn't really
race with her usual enthusiasm.
They may well meet at the back end of the
season in what could be Enable's swansong in the Breeder's Cup Turf, a
race they finished first and second in at the end of the 2018 season.
However, that run from Magical was
incredibly her ninth of the season and she will arrive in Keeneland this year a
much fresher horse. Of course having already once misread Aidan's mind it is no
certainty she will run in the 2020 renewal, but if she does I doubt she will be
anyhere near the 12/1 available now.
Back to these shores now and the St
Leger is my next port of call. I really wanted to back English King who
looked all at sea at Epsom and only really raced for the last quarter mile of
the Derby, making stealthy late headway without been given the full Dettori
treatment. However, connections look as though they have decided to run this
big baby of a three-year-old in the Grand Prix Paris.
There is little doubt that Serpentine
will see out this trip and the long stretch at Town Moor will suit him, while
the highly rated Al Aasy really knuckled down to good effect to land the
Bahrain Trophy at Newmarket where he held at bay DAWN PATROL
However, there are reasons to believe that the latter will reverse that form.
That was only the fourth run of his
career and it was easy to see he was using up excess energy in the
preliminaries; sweating profusely and then leading the field along in the race
itself, a place he simply didn't want to be.
The Irish Derby form may not be out of
this world, but being held up off a fast pace enabled the son of Galileo to
relax and he made up stacks of ground on both Santiago and Tiger Moth in the
last three furlongs.
The stop-start nature of the Newmarket
race was not to his liking as it became a speedball game over three and a half
furlongs and a true run extended mile and three quarters test will be much more
to his liking. A double figure price is still widely available.
My final ante-post bet does run in August
in the valuable Ebor Handicap at York and the Alan King trained TRUESHAN.
When I spoke in depth to Alan at the
beginning of 2019 about his hopes for the flat campaign I brought up this horse
straight away as I thought there was a chance he could upgrade to a Cup horse,
but Kingy was quick to put me straight.
He told me two miles and more was off the
agenda and that a mile and three quarters with some give in the ground would
almost certainly be his optimum trip.
Subsequent runs in the Buckhounds Stakes,
behind the smart Dashing Willoughby, and a hard fought win over Alignak in a
moderately run Tapster Stakes at Haydock Park confirmed this and means he will
almost certainly be rated high enough to garner a place in the line-up.
However, the most important factor will be the going. If the word firm appears in the description Alan simply will not let him run. Deep ground is also not his preserve, but good or good to soft will do fine and I believe an end to end gallop over that famous course and distance will bring out the very best in the progressive four-year-old.
Happy Racing
Paul
