I don’t think I’ve
ever been this excited about a racecard at Newcastle but given it is the first
meeting in a couple of months, I think I have every right to be.
It’s going to be
hard for tipsters and punters up and down the land as so many horses will be
needing their first run so it’s probably wise not to go mad early on. Newcastle
tends to be a specialist track too as not all horses act on the surface and
with the stiff finish races often feel a furlong longer than they actually are.
You need a horse
that stays well and finishes his races off strongly and I think LITTLE JO does just that. His big day
came in the Silver Cambridgeshire in 2018 and he was expected to progress in
2019 but unfortunately didn’t make it to the track until very late in the year.
He showed glimpses of his best but was never consistent. Such performances have
led to his handicap mark dropping and he now looks on a favourable mark. He has
ran well here in the past and with some bookmakers offering 4 places, he is
worth a punt at 12/1.
I’ve tried to leave
most of the novice action alone but at 3/1 BOND’S
BOY looks a belting bet in the 2.10 given his rock solid form in the book.
A good winner on debut at Redcar, he followed that success with an impressive
run in a strong sales race at Newmarket. The experience gained from those runs
makes him the one to beat here and his price of 3/1 puts him right at the top
of my list.
I mentioned
Newcastle is a specialist track and after 5 course wins I think TATHMEEN fits that category perfectly.
However, all those wins have come over 5 furlongs and he now tries 6 furlongs
at Newcastle for the first time. He has though, finished his races off strongly
enough to suggest 6f should be within his compass. A fast finishing 2nd at
Wolverhampton last time out proved that and if Cam Hardie can seek plenty of
cover early I think he has a great chance of going close.
I love a good
middle distance handicap on the flat and the 5.05 looks a pretty decent one.
Obviously it would have been better if some of these had had a run so you can
gauge a better idea as to who is fit and who is not. I rate December Second as
a horse to keep on side throughout the year but with form only on a sound
surface, this slow surface at Newcastle may not be to his liking.
If you like at Mark
Johnston’s all time strike rate, he clocks his three best months in January,
February and March. There could be many reasons for that but I do think one reason
is that he gets his horses fitter than most first time out. He runs two here
and it would be no surprise to see both run well but for Star Of The East, off
a 613 day absence with top weight, this will be tough. His stablemate however, BO SAMRAAN, looks to stand a better
chance and is the sort of horse who keeps on improving this year. His dam was a
stayer and he looks like he could step up in trip too, in time. This stiff 1m
4f will be right up his street for now though and with form on similar tracks I
like his chances each way at a tidy price.
Newcastle 1.35 – Little Jo – 0.5pts each way
Newcastle 2.10 Bond’s Boy – 1pt win
Newcastle 3.20 – Tathmeen – 1pt win
Newcastle 5.05 – Bo Samraan – 1pt each way
