Saturday Horse Racing Trends & Free Tips: 31st Aug 2019

More LIVE horse racing action this weekend as the ITV4 cameras head to Sandown, Chester and Beverley – we’ve got it all covered with the key trends and stats to help you whittle down the runners and find the best profiles of past winners.

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Saturday 31st August 2019

 

SANDOWN Horse Racing Trends (Live ITV/RacingTV)


1.50 –
Play 4 To Score At Betway Handicap Cl3 5f ITV4

10/11 – had raced in the last 6 weeks
10/11 – Aged 4, 5 or 6 years-old
10/11 – Didn’t win last time out
10/11 – Carried 8-12 or more in weight
9/11 – Had won over this 5f trip
8/11 – Rated between 80-93
8/11 – Had run at Sandown before (3 winners)
8/11 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
7/11 – Finished in the top 5 last time out
7/11 – Drawn 7 or higher
5/11 – Rated between 85-87
2/11 – Trained by Mick Channon
2/11 – Ridden by Jim Crowley
0/11 – Winning favourites
Global Applause won this race in 2018
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 9/1

RACING AHEAD VERDICT: With 10 of the last 11 winners aged between 4-6 years-old then this is a key trend that is a negative for the likes of Tinto and Heartwarming, who are both 3. Having raced in the last 6 weeks, not winning last time out and carrying 8-12 or more in weight are other factors to consider. CD winners Jumira Bridge, Gnaad and Spoof have proven they’ve gone well here in the past but it’s another course and distance winner – SAAHEQ (e/w) – that just edges it for me. This Mick Appleby-trained 5 year-old lost his way a bit after winning at Musselburgh back in April, but he’s dropped a bit down the handicap since and is now only 3lbs higher than that success. The good ground will also suit, and he showed a return to form last time out at Doncaster when second in a similar race.

2.25 – Betway Heed Your Hunch Handicap Cl2 1m2f7y ITV4

14/17 – Had 4 or more runs that season
13/17 – Ran at Haydock, York, Newmarket or Goodwood last time
12/17 – Unplaced favourites
11/17 – Winning distance 1 length or less
10/17 – Won 3 or more times before
10/17 – Aged 4 years-old
9/17 – Carried 9-0 or more
8/17 – Had run at Sandown before (4 won)
7/17 – Returned a double-figure price
7/17 – Won last time out
3/17 –Winning favourites (1 joint)
2/17 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
Dubai Horizon won the race in 2018
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 9/1

RACING AHEAD VERDICT: CD winner – Migration – can go well, while with the Sir Michael Stoute yard having a fair record in this race over the years then their Solid Stone is another to note. Mutaabeq looks like running into form after a good second at Bath last time and gets in here off the same mark. Mr Top Hat and Hyanna are consistent enough to be worthy of a second glance, but the two I like here are MORDIN (e/w) and COUNTRY. The later looks a fast-improving 3 year-old after winning his last three races and there should be more to come. The stiff Sandown finish looks a plus as he seemed to look better the further they went last time at Redcar over this same trip. Mordin gets a handy 7lb jockeys’ allowance but is another that is running into form after a good third at Donny last time. He’s off the same mark but with the jockey claim is 7lbs better off and that will be a big plus.

3.00 –Betway Atalanta Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 1m14y ITV4

14/17 – Had 3 or more runs that season
13/17 – Had won over a mile before
13/17 – Priced 9/2 or shorter
13/17 – Winning distance 1 ¼ or less
12/17 – Aged 3 years-old
11/17 – Placed last time out
11/17 – Had won 3 or more times before
11/17 – Had won a Listed or Group class race
10/17 – Rated between 98 and 108
7/17 – Winning favourites
6/17 – Won last time out
5/17 – Ran at Ascot last time out
5/17 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
4/17 – Had run at Sandown before
The average winning SP in the last 11 years is 4/1

RACING AHEAD VERDICT: Course winner, Look Around, ran well to be second at Ascot last time out behind another runner here – Duneflower. Both are sure to be popular, especially the latter with Frankie and John Gosden teaming-up. But the ratings suggest the one to beat here is the Sir Michael Stoute runner – JUBILOSO. This 3 year-old was a bit disappointing to be third in the Oak Tree Stakes at Goodwood last time out but the step up from 7f to 1m here is a huge plus. She was staying on well that day and prior to that run was an excellent third in the Group One Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot – a repeat of that run would make her hard to beat – Ryan Moore rides. Of the rest, the Cheveley Park Stud pair of Exhort and Red Starlight warrant respect, as do Solar Gold and Lavender’s Blue on their best form. But it’s a race the Stoute yard love to win and they look to have a big chance of doing so again.

3.35 –Betway Solario Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 7f16y ITV4

16/17 – Never raced at Sandown before
16/17 – Had won at least one race before
15/17 – Had won over 6 or 7f before
14/17 – Foaled in Jan, Feb or March
12/17 – Placed favourites
11/17 – Had 2 or more previous runs
11/17 – Won last time out
8/17 – Had won over 7f before
8/17 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
7/17 – Winning favourites
5/17 – Won by trainer John Gosden
Too Darn Hot (Evs fav) won the race 12 months ago
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 9/4

RACING AHEAD VERDICT: The Mark Johnston runner – Visinari – had a lot of hype attached to him after a nice debut win at HQ, but he’s failed to build on that in better races so has a bit to prove now. He was easily put in his place behind the classy Pinatubo last time out in the Vintage Stakes and even though that winner looks useful it was still a big beating. The ‘boys in blue’ of Godolphin had the winner that day and it’s interesting they run two here – Full Verse and AL SUHAIL. It’s the last-named that I’m siding with. He was a very impressive winner last time at Yarmouth and even though this is a big step up, the turn-of-foot was eye-catching and with some very fancy up-coming entries then connections clearly feel he’s a talented colt. He won’t have it all his own way as Positive sets a fair standard too. This Clive Cox runner was runner-up in the Vintage Stakes last time and if building on that effort looks sure to be involved too. Of the res, the Gosden yard have a cracking record in this race so their ESHAASY (e/w) might be worth a small saver of those at bigger prices. He won well last time at Kempton on just his second start and could have more to offer.

Beverley Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

 

2.05 William Hill Silver Cup Handicap Cl2 (3yo 0-105) 1m2f ITV4

10/10 – Returned 11/1 or shorter in the betting
10/10 – Never raced at Beverley before
10/10 – Had run in the last 6 weeks
8/10 – Drawn in stall 5 or lower
8/10 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
8/10 – Rated between 85-95
8/10 – Won over at least 1m before
8/10 – Finished fourth or better last time out
7/10 – Carried 9-0 or less in weight
7/10 – Won 2 or more times
6/10 – Irish bred
4/10 – Won last time out
3/10 – Winning favourite
2/10 – Trained by Richard Fahey
2/10 – Trained by Mark Johnston
2/10 – Trained by Karl Burke
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 6/1

RACING AHEAD VERDICT: Only six runners here so the draw might not play a big part. It still might be better to be drawn low though so that’s a good sign for Good Birthday (1), Victory Command (2) and Dark Vision (3). The last two-named are both from the powerful Mark Johnston yard and the stable have a fair record in the race. Of the two, Victory Command is the only course winner in the field and wasn’t disgraced last weekend when 5th of 14 behind the useful-looking Forest Of Dean. However, you suspect that jockey Joe Fanning would have had the choice of the Johnston pair so the fact he’s riding DARK VISION looks significant. This 3 year-old is a pound lower for his recent 6th at York, but the longer trip here looks a good move having run well over it back in July at HQ. The consistent Desert Icon is another that will be popular with the in-form Danny Tudhope riding with the yard having a decent 32% strike-rate with their 3 year-olds at the track.

3.15 – William Hill Beverley Bullet Sprint Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 5f ITV4

13/15 – Winning distance 1 length or less
14/15 – Had 3 or more runs that season
13/15 – Had won over 5f before
13/15 – Unplaced last time out
13/15 – Won 3 or more times before
11/15 – Had won a Listed or Group race before
11/15 – Placed favourites
9/15 – Run at Beverley before (6 won)
4/15 – Aged 3 years-old
3/15 – Ridden by Tom Eaves
3/15 – Trained by Bryan Smart
3/15 – Winning favourites
2/15 – Trained by Ian Semple
2/15 – Trained by Dave Griffiths (last two runnings)
No winner from a double-figure draw in the last 13 runnings
9 of the last 13 winners came from stalls 1-4 (inc)
6 of the last 11 winners came from stalls 1 or 2
The horse from stall 9 has been placed in 7 of the last 13 runnings
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 7/1

RACING AHEAD VERDICT: A decent renewal of the ‘Bullet, despite only 10 runners. The horse from stall 9 has a good record of being placed, so that’s a plus for Danzeno, but with 9 of the last 13 winners coming from stalls 1-4 then this is too big a stat to ignore – QUEENS GIFT, TIS MARVELLOUS, JUDICIAL and ORNATE – fit that draw trend. All four look to have a decent say too. ORNATE (e/w) represents the winning stable (Dave Griffiths) of the last two seasons and will find this drop in grade easier after running in the Group One Nunthorpe Stakes last time. He won well here back in June and was a good winner of the Epsom Dash this season too. Queens Gift is a fast-improving sprinter and draw 1 makes her dangerous, but the 111-rated TIS MARVELLOUS is also well-drawn in 2 and looks the one to beat based on his easy Ascot Handicap win last time out. He beat a big field by 2 ½ lengths last time so deserves to take his chance in this Listed race and could finally be starting to fulfil the promise he showed as a 2 year-old. The final one that can go well is FAIRY FALCON (e/w). The Bryan Smart yard like to target this race and draw 5 might just about be okay. The first-time blinkers are an interesting addition and the in-form Danny Tudhope has been booked to ride. She gets the fillies allowance too and can be expected to out-run her big odds.

Chester Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)


2.45 –
Sportpesa Chester Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 1m5f89y ITV4

16/16 – Won over 1m4f or further before
13/16 – Drawn in stall 7 or lower
13/16 – Had won 3 or more times before
13/16 – Winning distance 1 ½ lengths or less
12/16 – Aged 3, 4 or 5 years-old
11/16 – Returned 5/1 or bigger in the betting
10/16 – Carried 9-3 or less
10/16 – Placed favourites
9/16 – Placed last time out
9/16 – Ran at either Pontefract, Ascot or Goodwood last time out
7/16 – Had run at Chester before (3 won)
4/16 – Won last time out
3/16 – Winning favourite
2/16 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
1/16 – Winners from stall 1
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 11/2

RACING AHEAD VERDICT: Tribal Craft, Vivid Diamond and Mackaar have cases, but really this looks to rest between Outbox and the rare Chester runner for trainer Dermot Weld – STIVERS. The former has been running well without winning in handicaps at Goodwood and Newmarket but does have a bit to prove for me after getting turned over as a short-priced favourite last time at HQ. The step up in trip will help but it’s still hard to ignore the Irish Weld yard bringing one over. STIVERS is having it’s first run for 231 days but it’s unlikely to be making the long trip over unless fit and ready to run. It’s the horses first run for the yard but had some solid Group form in Argentina to it’s name so if bringing that to the table would be hard to beat.

 

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