The Queen Elizabeth II Stakes at Ascot was a thrilling race that saw several horses with a chance to win down the final stretch. But at the end of the day, it was Roaring Lion that took the victory with a brilliant stretch run that saw him run down the competition without breaking too much of a sweat. This race was instructive from a punter’s perspective, as the outcome of the race was a good reminder of a few things that horse racing bettors shouldn’t forget.
It’s Okay To Back a Favourite
Value is the name of the game in horse racing betting, and that can often mean finding a favourite whose odds are more favourable than they should be. In the case of this race, that is exactly what happened, as the favourite in Roaring Lion turned out to be the right choice to win the race based on the results. At 2/1 odds, Roaring Lion proved that it isn’t always bad to back the favourite to win a big race, as long as the price is right.
Often in horse racing, you will see tips that suggest that taking longshot horses is the way to go, as there is the potential for high value in horses with big payouts if they were to win. But those longshots tend to hit less frequently than favourably priced favourites, which means that there is room for both philosophies to work in this ecosystem as long as you are backing the right horses.
In the case of Roaring Lion, this win was his eighth in 12 career starts, meaning that he has won in two-thirds of the races he’s been in lifetime. That is a great ratio, and one that justified a bet at 2/1 odds. And given how little jockey Oisin Murphy appeared to be pushing Roaring Lion in this race, it’s clear that the victory could have been even more convincing if he wanted it to be.
All in all, there can usually be some value at each level of a race, and here there was plenty of value to be had in the favourite at the top of the board.
Experience Isn’t Everything
One of the most interesting storylines heading into the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes was the fact that there was a pretty clear experience gap between some of the horses in the race, including the winner of the race in Roaring Lion. Some horses were no strangers to Ascot, with others being seasoned veterans on the surface that this race was being run on. But experience is only as good as a horse’s execution, and that is something worth taking away from this race.
In Oddschecker’s Queen Elizabeth II Stakes race preview, they mention the experience gap at Ascot as one of the reasons that bettors should stay away from the likes of Roaring Lion. On the surface, it’s a good piece of advice, as it’s usually better to back something you know, in the form of a horse that has performed at a high level on a specific track or surface before. But that advice often fails to account for specific horses or situations, at least in the eyes of bettors.
When you have a horse that has been as successful as the winner has been in such a small number of starts, it could just be because that horse is special, and superior to many of its competitors. And that can often supercede any conventional wisdom when it comes to wagering on horse racing.
Don’t Be Afraid Of Longshots
Longshot bets in horse racing are usually thought of in one of two ways by bettors. They are either seen as worth taking a shot at when the occasion is right, given that they have the ability to yield massive payouts, or that they are more pipe dream than realistic investment. But Ascot is a venue with a history of longshot successes, and this race was nearly one of them yet again.
I Can Fly, with jockey Donnacha O’Brien, came just short of winning the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes outright at 50/1 odds. The horse came into the race tied as the second-biggest longshot on the board, with only Gabrial at longer odds at 100/1. Gabrial finished in last place as the biggest longshot in the race, but the horses that were valued at 50/1 odds had a great showing as a whole.
In addition to the second place performance put forth by I Can Fly, there was another 50/1 horse in the top four finishers of the race. Stormy Antarctic finished in fourth place in this race, using a late surge to get ahead of Recoletos who finished in fifth. Recoletos looked to have run out of gas by the final stretch, allowing one of the longshots to sneak past him for the fourth place finish. Recoletos, by the way, was the second favourite heading into this race at 5/1 odds.
This race belonged to underdogs in general aside from the fact that the favourite of the race came out on top. Spots two through four in the pecking order were all taken by horses at 18/1 odds to win or higher, with 18/1 Century Dream taking the third spot. All of this is to say that longshots aren’t always a bad bet, and that there is usually at least one capable of providing a handsome payout, or at least a good chance at one.
Don’t Believe The Hype
Hype in sports can be a bad thing for bettors, in that it can distort the betting odds on a particular event or competitor. And in the case of this race, there were a couple of instances where that was the case when all was said and done. One of those instances came during the race itself, while the other came in the winner’s next time out.
In terms of hype heading into the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes, there weren’t many horses hyped more than Laurens, who was a rather late addition to the field. A multiple-time G1 race winner, Laurens came into this race as one of the clear favourites to win the race at 6/1 odds. But the filly was anything but a favourite throughout the race, as she failed to figure into what was a crowded picture at the end of the race. Laurens will have the chance to redeem herself in March at the Dubai Turf, where it will be interesting to see how she rebounds from this disappointing effort.
Focusing back on the winner, Roaring Lion was another reminder that believing the hype in horse racing can be a huge problem. He followed up his performance in the Queen Elizabeth with a trip to the Breeders Cup Classic in the United States. One of the richest horse racing events in the world, it was set to be a great measuring stick for a horse that has proven that it is capable of competing on high levels. Unfortunately, though, things did not pan out for him at all, as Roaring Lion went out with a whimper.
Roaring Lion finished dead last in the Breeders Cup Classic, looking every bit like the 20/1 underdog that he was deemed to be heading into the race. Ironically enough, he was one of the longshots in this race, a race that was also won by the favourite in Accelerate. For Roaring Lion, the tables had turned in this race, as he was the proverbial small fish in a big pond, rather than the other way around.
For one race, there was clearly a lot to take away from the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes from all over the list of results. As horse racing bettors, there are always takeaways to be had in the hope of placing another winning bet on the next race.
