Tepin (10/1 generally) looks the best value bet at this stage for the 2016 Queen Anne Stakes at Royal Ascot.
The Queen Anne Stakes is the highlight of Tuesday‘s racing, with a glorious roll of honour including Frankel, Paco Boy, Goldikova and Canford Cliffs. Last year’s renewal was won by French challenger Solow, and that horse heads the market this time around.
Solow (6/4 generally) won this race in good style last season from fellow French raider Esoterique, and is currently on a winning streak of ten consecutive victories. His winning margins of late aren’t spectacular, but he has amassed five consecutive Group One victories, and he is admirable in his consistency. The Champion Miler is a tough nut to crack, and he always seems to run his race, but perhaps this year may prove vulnerable to something with the star quality of Tepin.
Tepin is trained in America by Mark Casse, and was something of a late bloomer in her racing career to date. She only had one start at two, followed by four disappointing runs as a three year old. Towards the back end of her four year old campaign however she became really progressive, culminating in her devastating win in the Breeders’ Cup Mile. That day she admittedly got the run of the race, but couldn’t have been more impressive, and had some of the top European milers (including Esoterique) well beaten behind her. This season she has proven her wellbeing with two minor wins at Tampa Bay Downs, and her recent Grade One win at Keeneland showed that she has lost none of her ability from last season.
Genuine challengers to Solow’s reign as top miler look thin on the ground, and the door is wide open for a new star to step in. Limato (10/1) is unproven over the mile distance, and has seemingly had his limitations exposed last season. Time Test (7/1) is more interesting, with improvement a definite possibility this season, but he has plenty of ground to make up on Tepin from their Breeders’ Cup form.
Obviously there will be major obstacles as regards travelling for Tepin, not to mention an unfamiliar racing environment and track, but I think punters are more than compensated for these factors with the generous price on offer. It isn’t too often you get to back a Breeders’ Cup winner at 10/1 in a race that may only have a final field of five or six, but that is the proposition here.
Should Tepin make the Queen Anne Stakes in good form, I would imagine she will go off around the 7/2 mark.
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