by Herbie Fogg
Eboracum, the Roman name for York, a name not forgotten in these parts, handed down via Anglo-Saxons, Vikings and highwaymen. York has seen them all, with horse racing upon the Knavesmire since at least 1731 and in all probability for centuries beyond. The ‘Ebor‘ is the pivotal meeting of York’s season and features all three of its annual Group 1’s; the Yorkshire Oaks, Nunthorpe and Juddmonte International, not to mention the venerable Ebor Handicap, run since 1843.
It’s also a pivotal time for trainers, some of whom have kept their powder dry through May and June waiting for the likes of Gosden, O’Brien, Hannon and Stoute to fire their major guns. The Ebor meeting is often difficult, because the trainers who got you through Newmarket, Epsom, Ascot and Goodwood , won’t work nearly so well here. In August, it’s time to change up.
So from a betting perspective, who are the yards of prime interest? The prolific winners of races, or the yards who regularly land winners at bigger prices.
The Major Players
For the big players look south, or indeed west across the sea. Mark Johnston doesn’t greatly target this meeting , preferring Goodwood, while Kevin Ryan, David O’Meara and Richard Fahey do, but in the face of very stiff competition. Fahey is due a good one, he hasn’t produced a winner at this meeting since 2012, while Ryan 2-Y-O’s and O’Meara in general will be overbet.
Instead we’d suggest your primary ports of call should be: William Haggas, Godolphin, Aiden O’Brien & Khalid Abdullah:
Yorkshireman Haggas places a huge emphasis on this meeting and routinely sends several classy unexposed types. Focus on runners with between 1 and 10 prior starts, who have run in the last 45 days. He targets the better races, so rule out any runner with a BHA mark below 90 and any race where the first prize is below £24,900. Since 2009 there have been 21 qualifiers, producing 11 winners, for +£77.75 LSP (+370.2% ROI). 2014 was exceptional with winners at 8/1, 12/1 and 20/1. Qualifiers without a mark are fine.
With Dubai in mind, Godolphin work to a different rhythm than other big Newmarket operations, so York is a natural home for a unit that tends to come alive from August onwards Focus on well-fancied runners, SP 7/1 or less, in Class 1 races run over 9fl or further. Since 2000 their record is; 11 wins from 23 qualifiers, +£26.88 LSP (+116.9% ROI).
Ballydoyle are far less prolific here than at many other major meetings, however when they have a suitable runner they do tend to target three races with consistent success; the Gimcrack, Yorkshire Oaks and Ebor. This century all 5 entries for the Gimcrack have made the frame, worth backing blind if available at an EW price. Ditto any Ebor handicap runners, who are 1 winner and 2 seconds from 4. Finally in the Yorkshire Oaks, support any runner in the first 3 in the betting ridden by a primary stable jockey (i.e. currently Moore or O’Brien); 3 winners from 5 qualifiers since 2006.
Khalid Abdullah likes a strong presence at this meeting which he helps to sponsor via the Juddmont organisation. Sir Michael Stoute has been his most successful trainer over the years. Betting any runner from this owner/trainer combination aged 3 to 4-Y-O, in the first three in the betting has produced 5 winners from 12 for +£10.83 LSP (+90.2% ROI).
Widening The Net
The really good thing about the Ebor meeting are the number of other trainers we can turn to, excellent in their own right and trying very hard at this meeting, who land consistently excellent prices. Our shortlist is: C Hills, J Quinn, H Candy, B Ellison.
Charlie Hills is a trainer who doesn’t seem to get going until June, but he’s a young trainer with powerful owners and ammo to fire. With his mid-season profile, York is a natural target and we’ve noticed this is where he often targets his best improving 2yo’s. Focus on any 2-Y-O with 3 to 5 previous runs. Since 2012, 4 from 7 have made the frame, two winners at 7/1 and 16/1 (both in 2014), plus placed qualifiers at 6/1 and 16/1. Thus he produces cracking EW bets, and even to level win stakes is already +£18.00.
Another very good trainer who has switched on to the Ebor meeting with his 2-Y-O’s is Henry Candy. Much depends on whether he has the ammo to fire, but he’s a trainer who only turns up when he does. This century he’s sent just three 2-Y-O’s, producing 2 winners at 11/1 and 18/1. All three runners have been since 2010.
On the handicap side Brian Ellison’s runners are consistently underbet. Since 2009, with his handicap runners aged 2 to 6-Y-O he is 2 wins from 15. However those winners were both at 25/1, while making the frame with a further four at 5/1, 14/1, 16/1 & 40/1, for a superb 40% win or placed, simply outstanding at the prices.
John Quinn has a similar record. Anything he sends that goes off at 14/1 or less is worth close consideration. Since 2005, such runners are 3 wins from 12 (almost all in handicaps), with winners at 8/1, 17/2 & 10/1, plus five placed at 14/1, 11/2, 9/1, 12/1 and 10/1. He’s only had 1 qualifier since 2010, Pearl Castle who was placed in 2014.
Herbie is a noted pro-backer and the editor of Key Racing News, www.keyracingnews.com
