We’ve had better LIVE Saturday ITV race days, but with the Cheltenham Festival on the horizon then it’s no surprise the quality is slightly down – Newbury, Kelso and Doncaster provide the LIVE ITV action this week, and, as always, we’ve got all the races covered from a trends and stats angle.
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NEWBURY HORSE RACING TRENDS (ITV4/RacingTV)
**NOTE** – Newbury’s Saturday card has been called off due to a waterlogged track
2.05 – William Hill Supporting Greatwood Veterans´ Handicap Chase (Qualifier) (Leg 3 of Veterans´ Chase Series) Cl2 3m2f110y ITV4
9/10 – Returned 9/1 or shorter
8/10 – Aged 10 years-old
8/10 – Won over at least 3m (chase)
6/10 – Favourites unplaced
5/10 – Carried 11-4 or more in weight
4/10 – Finished in the top 3 in their last race
2/10 – Won their last race
1/10 – Winning favourites
Carole’s Destrier (6/1) won the race in 2019
Trainer David Pipe won the race in 2015 and 2016
Trainer Paul Nicholls won the race in 2013 and 2017
The average winning SP in the last 6 renewals is 6/1
RACING AHEAD VERDICT: Course winners that could line-up are Horatio Hornblower, Strong Pursuit & Joe Farrell, while Singlefarmpayment is another that is sure to be popular with punters in a race like this. However, the Tom George runner is a very hard horse to win with and has recorded only one chase win from 18 starts – but in his defence is often placed and is slipping to a very attractive handicap mark. The consistent LE ROCHER is another that should be involved – he’s finished in the top three in 7 of his 9 starts and looks a solid e/w option. The Gary Moore-trained Antony is running from 3lbs out of the handicap so that’s not ideal, but Theatre Guide looks the main danger to the pick after running a close third at Sandown last time out and is only a pound higher.
3.15– William Hill Supporting Greatwood Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Grade 3) Cl1 2m4f ITV4
15/16 – Carried 11-5 or less in weight
14/16 – Won by a horse aged 8 or younger
14/16 – Had run within the last 6 weeks
13/16 – Had won between 1-4 times over fences previously
13/16 – Raced at Newbury (hurdles or fences) previously
13/16 – Won over this trip previously
11/16 – Officially rated 139 or higher
11/16 – Placed in the top 5 last time out
10/16 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or less
9/16 – Favourites placed
9/16 – Won by the Paul Nicholls stable
8/16 – Winners that came from the top 3 in the market
8/16 – Won by a French-bred horse
7/16 – Won by a horse aged 8 years-old
6/16 – Went onto run at the Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
5/16 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
5/16 – Favourites to win (1 joint)
3/16 – Ridden by Nick Scholfield
2/16 – Won by the Pipe yard
2/16 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty
2/16 – Ridden by Sam Twiston-Davies
1/16 – Won their last race
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 9/1
Note: The 2006 renewal was a dead-heat
RACING AHEAD VERDICT: This is a race the Paul Nicholls team love to win. They’ve bagged the top prize here a staggering 9 times in the last 16 years so their runners – SECRET INVESTOR, MONT DES AVALOIRS and last year’s winner of the race SAN BENEDETO have to be respected. Secret Investor and Mont Des Avaloirs both head here off the back of good seconds – Secret Investor’s runner-up finish to Native River in the Denman Chase was particularly eye-catching. However, I’m going to stick with the current champ in this race – SAN BENEDETO (e/w). He beat another runner – Gala Ball – by 2 ¼ lengths last year and is only rated 3lbs higher. But it’s interesting that Nicholls is offsetting that by putting up 5lb claimer Bryan Carver to ride, so the horse is actually 2lbs better off than 12 months ago. He’s also been kept fresh for this with 3 months off, with this race looking to have been a clear target for him. Of the rest, Bennys King and Tiquer are proven course winners so command respect based on that, while Clondaw Castle was a nice winner at Warwick last time and should go well again. But the other of interest is the bottom weight – ENRICHISSANT (e/w). This 6 year-old caught my eye when winning well at Huntingdon a week ago and gets in here with just 10-0. Yes. This is a big jump up in grade and he’s been raised a massive 13lbs for that last win, but he jumped and travelled well and at just 6 years-old looks a horse on the up with more to come.
DONCASTER HORSE RACING TRENDS (ITV4/RacingTV)
1.50 – 888Sport Handicap Hurdle Cl2 3m96y ITV4
Only 7 previous runnings
7/7 – Aged 9 or younger
6/7 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
6/7 – Priced 9/2 or shorter in the betting
6/7 – Finished 4th or better last time out
6/7 – Carried 10-13 or more in weight
6/7 – Irish bred
5/7 – Ran in the last 3 weeks
5/7 – Favourites place in the top two
4/7 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
4/7 – Ran at Doncaster (2) or Ascot (2) last time out
3/7 – Winning favourites
2/7 – Aged 9 years-old
2/7 – Won last time out
RACING AHEAD VERDICT: The Nicholls runner – Blackjack Kentucky – got off the mark at the sixth try at Chepstow last time out and has to enter the mix if running for the powerful Paul Nicholls yard. Shades Of Midnight is the top-rated in the field so commands respect too, but as a result has a big weight (11st-12lbs) to carry and that won’t be easy off a break too. Flemcara, Coded Message and Culture De Sivola are all proven stayers that can’t be discounted, while Brydon Boy is the only CD winner in the field and could run better than his odds might suggest. But the call is Geordie B, who ran well (4th) at Newbury back in November and is lightly-raced so could have more to come. This Venetia Williams runner acts well in soft ground and has gone well fresh in the past. He’s clearly a horse that’s had a few issues but also has ability and might just be able to improve past some of these with only six career runs to it’s name.
2.25 – 888Sport Bet £10 Get £30 Handicap Chase Cl2 2m90y ITV4
8 previous runnings
8/8 – Priced 15/2 or shorter
6/8 – Aged between 6-8 years-old
5/8 – Carried 11-1 or less in weight
5/8 – Placed 1st or 2nd last time out
3/8 – Raced at Musselburgh last time out
2/8 – Trained by Brian Ellison
2/8 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
RACING AHEAD VERDICT: With 6 of the last 8 winners aged between 6-8 years-old, then this would be a negative for the likes of Nuts Well, Gino Trail & Katpoli, if running, who are either too old or too young. It’s also another race the Paul Nicholls yard like to target so it might pay to not overcomplicate things here. They run DOLOS, who bounced back to winning ways at Sandown last time out – beating First Flow by ½ a length. The form of that win has since been franked with the runner-up winning and a 4lb rise for that looks fair enough. The trip and ground are fine and with 11 top three finishes (4 wins) from his 15 runs over fences, that’s a 79% strike-rate of landing a gold, silver or bronze. Of the rest, Dalila Du Seuil and Destrier are others to consider.
3.00 – 888Sport Take ‘Em On Mares´ Novices´ Hurdle (Listed Race) Cl1 3m96y ITV4
6 previous runnings
6/6– Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
5/6 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
5/6 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
5/6 – Favourites placed in the top 2
5/6 – Ran in the last 7 weeks
3/6 – Won by the favourite (1 co-fav)
3/6 – Irish bred
RACING AHEAD VERDICT: Only six previous runnings of this race, but with 5 of the last 6 winners aged either 5 or 6 years-old then this is a good stat. This will, however, apply to most of the runners – including the likely hot-pot Nicholls runner – CILL ANNA. This 5 year-old is the top-rated in the field and if those ratings are anything to go by she has 12lbs in-hand on her nearest rival – Eleanor Bob. The pick beat Miss Honey Ryder by 7 lengths last time at Wincanton and with that horse having since bolted-up at Huntingdon then the form looks rock solid – she can take this before going onto bigger things. Eleanor Bob is certainly no back number though and should make a race of it based on her last two wins. But, as mentioned, she’s 12lbs to find based on the ratings so would need to improve further. Aimee De Sivola and Early Morning Rain should do best of the rest.
3.35 – 888Sport Grimthorpe Chase (A Handicap Chase) Cl2 3m2f ITV4
15/15 – Aged 8 or older
14/15 – Won over at least 3m (fences) before
13/15 – Won no more than 4 times over fences
12/15 – Ran within the last 8 weeks
11/15 – Carried 10-12 or less in weight
11/15 – Aged 9 or older
10/15 – From the top 3 in the betting
10/15 – Priced 11/2 or shorter in the betting
10/15 – Rated 131 or less
9/15 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
7/15 – Raced over fences at Doncaster before (3 winners)
7/15 – Won their last race
7/15 – Irish bred
4/15 – Went onto run in that season’s Grand National (no winners)
2/15 – Favourites
8 year-olds have won 3 of the last 5 runnings
Chidswell won the race in 2019
Definitely Red won this race in 2017
RACING AHEAD VERDICT: We’ve got the last two winners of this race in action again. Chidswell took the honours last year, while Definitely Red landed the prize in 2017. Both head into the race off the back of decent recent runs and have to enter calculations. Boldmere was in the process of running a big race last time until falling late on at Wetherby. He’s had 4 weeks to get over that race and is sure to have been well-schooled since. If his jumping holds-up he looks an improving chaser with a future. Clondaw Anchor and Worthy Farm are others to note, but with 11 of the last 15 winners aged 9 or older, then these 7 year-olds will have this age stat against them. With that in mind, it’s two of the 9 year-olds that I’m interested in – AARON LAD (e/w) and CAPTAIN CHAOS (e/w). The former was a nice winner at Exeter last time out and is only 3lbs higher. He gets into this better race with only 10st 3lbs to carry and is still not too badly treated based on old form. Captain Chaos was last seen running second in the Classic Chase at Warwick and gets in here off the same mark. A slight hike in grade, but that means a lower racing weight too. He stays further than this 3m2f trip too, so that proven stamina will be a big asset in the closing stages in what is likely to be desperate conditions.
KELSO HORSE RACING TRENDS (ITV/RacingTV)
2.45 – William Hill Premier Kelso Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 2) Cl1 (4 yo+) 2m2f ITV4
10/11 – Aged 7 or younger
10/11 – Favourites placed in the top three
10/11 – Raced in the last 7 weeks
9/11 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
8/11 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
7/11 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
7/11 – Had won at least twice over hurdles before
6/11 – Won last time out
6/11 – Had raced at Kelso before
5/11 – Irish bred
3/11 – Winning favourite
3/11 – Ran at Musselburgh last time out
2/11 – Trained by Lucinda Russell
RACING AHEAD VERDICT: CHEDDLETON (e/w) gets the nod here. This 5 year-old has won it’s last two in the style of an improving hurdler and clearly handles soft/heavy ground well. He’s also a course winner and over this extra two furlongs could have more to come. Of the rest, the Paul Nicholls yard won this race in 2016 and have a decent 43% record with their rare hurdle runners at the track – they have Calva D’Auge entered, who has won his last two well and looks another useful sort for the yard. Of the rest, the Brian Hughes-ridden Clondaw Caitlin is another that can’t be ruled out. She’s won her last three and will also get a handy 7lbs mares’ allowance here. She’ll need to step up again in this big rise in grade but looks a mare going the right way and the ratings suggest she should be bang-there. Course winner, Elf De Re and the consistent Ebony Jewel can do best of the rest.
