We’ve another busy afternoon in store with seven LIVE ITV races spread across three tracks – Kempton, Lingfield and Newcastle.
The Betway Handicap Chase tops the bill at Kempton, with four LIVE races at the Sunbury-On-Thames track, while the stayers are out again up at Newcastle for the gruelling Eider Chase that’s run over 4m1f. Then down at Lingfield the All Weather racing fans get their fix with a top-notch card that includes the Group 3 Winter Derby.
So, as always, we’ve got it all covered here at RACING AHEAD with all the key trends, plus our verdict, on each of the LIVE ITV races – we’re confident these trends will point you in the direction of a few winners, or at least help narrow down some of the field to highlight the horses that fit the best profile of past winners – So, let’s get going!
Kempton Park Horse Racing Trends (ITV4)
1.15 – Betway Pendil Novices´ Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 2m4f110y ITV4
13/15 – French (8) of Irish (5) bred
12/15 – Favourites that finished in the top 3
12/15 – Returned 5/2 or shorter in the betting
11/15 – Aged 6 or 7 years-old
11/15 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
11/15 – Ran in the last 5 weeks
10/15 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (won 7 of the last 10)
9/15 – Had won between 1-2 times over fences before
8/15 – Won last time out
8/15 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 10 renewals is 13/8
RACING AHEAD VERDICT: This has been a very good race for the Paul Nicholls yard in recent years – winning 7 of the last 10! With that in mind this pair – Southfield Stone and MASTER TOMMYTUCKER – look interesting. The former was a nice winner at Musselburgh earlier this month under Bryony Frost, who continues in the saddle. This will be harder and he’s a bit to find at the ratings but looks a fast-improving chaser. However, Master Tommytucker might just have the better scope for improving with only five career runs. This 9 year-old is lightly-raced for his age but has shown plenty of ability this season over fences – beating Who Dares Wins, who goes here too, at Kempton back in November. He fell next time at the same venue on Boxing Day in the Kauto Star Novices’ Chase, but was running well. The drop back to 2m4f here (from 3m) will suit and being a proven course winner is a bonus. Nicholls has given him plenty of time to get over that fall (2 months) and is sure to have been well-schooled since – providing his jumping holds out looks to have a good chance. Of the others, Commanche Red was a nice winner here over CD on Boxing Day – beating a useful sort in Simply The Betts by 9 lengths – and can go well too. Erick Le Rouge is another player that likes the track and won here last time out, but this is a step up in grade again, so you feel he’ll just have to find a bit more to figure.
1.50 – Weatherbys Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide Adonis Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 2) Cl1 2m ITV4
15/16 – Priced 8/1 or shorter in the betting
14/16 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
14/16 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
13/16 – Had won no more than once over hurdles in the UK
12/16 – Had raced within the last 7 weeks
12/16 – Winners that went onto run in the Triumph Hurdle (3 winners)
12/16 – Placed favourites
12/16 – Had won over 2m (hurdles) before
10/16– Won carrying either a 4lb or 7lb penalty
9/16 – Won last time out
8/16 – Winning favourites
6/16 – French bred
5/16 – Irish bred
4/16 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
4/16 – Trained by Alan King (won two of last 3 runnings)
4/16 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
3/16 – Winners that went onto win that season’s Triumph Hurdle
Zarkandar, Soldatino and Penzance went onto land that season’s Triumph Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 4/1
Note: The 2006 renewal was staged at Sandown Park
RACING AHEAD VERDICT: With the Paul Nicholls yard having won 3 or the last 10 runnings of this race then their SOLO gets the thumbs up here. This French import is having his first run in this country but could easily be another nice recruit for the yard after dotting-up by 15 lengths over in France last time out. That also came in heavy ground so no issues with the conditions and the fact Nicholls is pitching him into a Grade Two on his British debut – also in race he loves to target – looks to be a good sign. Of the rest, the unbeaten Fujimoto Flyer will also have her supporters if coming over from the Emmey Mullins yard in Ireland. Soft/Heavy ground is fine, and she’ll get a handy 7lbs mares’ allowance off the selection. Fantastic Ms Fox looks best of the others on what we’ve seen to date, while – if running – the Alan King-trained BLAME IT ON SALLY – is worth noting in the betting with the yard having won two of the last three renewals.
2.25 – Betway Kingwell Hurdle (Grade 2) Cl1 1m7f65y ITV4
16/16 – Raced within the last 8 weeks
15/16 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
14/16 – Priced 4/1 or shorter in the betting
14/16 – Favourites to finish in the top 3
14/16 – Had won at least 3 times over hurdles before
12/16 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s Champion Hurdle (1 winner Katchit)
12/16 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
10/16 – Aged either 5 or 6 years-old
9/16 – Rated 155 or higher
8/16 – Winning favourites
8/16 – Won last time out
6/16 – Raced at Sandown last time out
4/16 – Trained by Alan King
1/16 – Winners that went onto win the World Hurdle (Inglis Drever)
RACING AHEAD VERDICT: Rescheduled from the cancelled meeting at Wincanton last Saturday, but I’m happy to stick with what I said last week. Several with chances here – most notably, Song For Someone and Ch’tibello. However, I think it might be worth taking a chance on the Alan King runner – ELGIN – who won this race in 2018 and gets a handy 4lbs from the Nicholls horse. Yes, he’s had his problems since and been off the track a long time – was last seen 582 days ago on the flat, while his last hurdles run was just over 700 days ago. The King team have also won this race twice in the last three seasons, and three times since 2011. We can expect Elgin to be tuned-up, being that he’s running back after a lay-off in a race of this nature and at 8 years-old he’s still got time on his side. He’s also a proven CD winner at the track and is also returning after a wind operation, which should hopefully bring out some more improvement. Of the rest, the Nicholls runner – Diego Du Charmil must be respected too.
3.02 – Sky Bet Dovecote Novices´ Hurdle (Grade 2) Cl1 2m ITV4
13/14 – Ran within the last 5 weeks
13/14 – Had won over 2m (hurdles) before
12/14 – Had never raced over hurdles at Kempton before
11/14 – Won between 0-2 times over hurdles before
11/14 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
10/14 – Placed favourites
9/14 – Aged either 4 or 5 years-old
8/14 – Won last time out
6/14 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
5/14 – Winning favourites
4/14 – French bred
4/14 – Trained by Alan King
4/14 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
3/14 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty
3/14 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/14 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 4/1
Note: The 2006 renewal was staged at Sandown Park
RACING AHEAD VERDICT: If running, the Henderson runner – Buzz – will be very popular having won both starts over hurdles. This former useful flat performer for Hughie Morrison has jumped well in both races but has only just got home each time (neck) so you feel something might just improve past him here. Benson had every chance of causing an upset at big odds at Sandown last time until unseating late on, so if none-the-worse for that tumble has to enter the mix. However, the call here is to side with the hat-trick-seeking HIGHWAY ONE O TWO. This 5 year-old was a nice winner at Plumpton the last twice and looks a nice sort for the Chris Gordon yard. This will be a rise in class, but he’s won by 19 and 11 lengths in those recent runs so deserves to take his chance in this better race, while soft/heavy ground is fine. If running, West Cork and Kid Commando are others that have form in the book that would see them run well.
3.35 – Betway Chase (Handicap) (Grade 3) Cl1 3m ITV4
15/17 – Finished in the top 5 last time out
14/17 – Aged 9 or younger
14/17 – Rated 139 or higher
12/17 – Had raced within the last 8 weeks
11/17 – Won a class 2 chase or better before
11/17 – Carried 10-13 or more
11/17 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
11/17 – Came from the top 4 in the betting
11/17 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or more
11/17 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
10/17 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
10/17 – Rated between 139 and 150
8/17 – Carried 11-5 or more
7/17 – Had won at least 4 times over fences before
7/17 – Won last time out
6/17 – Aged 8 years-old
5/17 – French bred
4/17 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s Grand National (all unplaced)
4/17 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
3/17 – Ridden by Paddy Brennan
3/17 – Winners that went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (1 winner)
2/17 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
2/17 – Ridden by Richard Johnson (won it 5 times in all)
2/17 – Trained by Tom George
2/17 – Trained by Neil Mulholland (won 2 of the last 3)
2/17 – Trained by Philip Hobbs (won it 4 times in all)
2/17 – Ran in the King George VI Chase last time out
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 12/1
Note: The 2006 running was staged at Sandown Park
RACING AHEAD VERDICT: Talkischeap was a fair fifth in this race last year but being rated 12lbs higher this time would suggest he’s got more on his plate. On a plus, he’s an improved horse since and won the Bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown last April, while has also had a wind operation since his last run. Romain De Senam was also fourth in this race last year, while Adrien Du Pont was third. This Nicholls runner has been popular in the betting all week and should be hitting peak fitness after two runs this term and is also rated 6lbs lower than last season. We’ve also got the runner-up from 12 months ago – Double Shuffle. The Tom George yard have won well in this race in recent years so his Double Shuffle must enter the mix again. This 10 year-old has, however, only won twice from 24 runs over fences, but been second 8 times. He’s been placed in some big races over the years, most notably when runner-up in the 2017 King George, but despite his dropping mark is now 15 runs without a win. With a light weight, Just A Sting will have supporters based on being proven CD winners and coming here off the back off decent runs, but the horse that ticks a lot of the main stats is the Paul Nicholls-trained BLACK CORTON (e/w). This popular 9 year-old will be having his 36th race under rules and with 19 top three finishes to his name from 23 runs over fences, then he’s as consistent as they come. A recent fourth at Ascot was another good effort and being dropped another 2lbs gives him a great chance. He’s starting to look well-handicapped again on old form, while his form at the track is outstanding – 1-2-1-2- so is yet to finish out of the first two from four runs here. Whatmore, Dashing Perk, Kildisart and Sametegal are others to consider, but of those at bigger prices last year’s fourth – ROMAIN DE SENAM (e/w) might be worthy of a small interest. Yes, he’s rated 11lbs higher, but that’s due to running much better since that run in the race last year. The softer ground would be a worry, but he’s won in very soft conditions in France before. He also returns from a 242-day break but has won off a lay-off in the past and has clearly been aimed at a return in this race for a while. He’ll be fresher than most and in conditions that will be a plus.
Newcastle Horse Racing Trends (ITV4)
2.45 – Vertem Eider (A Handicap Chase) Cl2 4m1f ITV4
16/16 – Had won over at least 3m before
14/16 – Aged 10 or younger
13/16 – Carried 10-13 or more
13/16 – Priced 12/1 or shorter in the betting
12/16 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
11/16 – Irish-bred
11/16 – Winners came from the top 3 in the betting
11/16 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or less
11/16 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
10/16 – Officially rated between 131-140
10/16 – Aged either 8 or 9 years-old
8/16 – Placed favourites
5/16 – Won last time out
5/16 – Won over 3m4f or further before
3/16 – Carried 11-12 in weight
2/16 – Winning favourites
2/16 – Irish-trained winners
The average winning SP in the last 16 runnings is 10/1
RACING AHEAD VERDICT: Most of these horses would not have gone anywhere near this far in trip during their careers so backing anything would have a certain amount of risk attached to it. Course winner – Fortified Bay – heads here in the form of it’s life after wins at Market Rasen and Newcastle. He’s up another 7lbs here but is clearly a horse on the up and is sure to be popular. Calipso Collonges and Glittering Love are others that have been running well of late, but, again need to prove themselves over this sort of trip. Over To Sam is another improving staying chaser that got off the mark at Plumpton last month, but I’d just be worried about his lack of experience in a race like this – it will only be his third career run over fences. Course winner, Ascot De Bruyere should go well, while Very First Time and Theligny were both nice winners last time out so head here in form, but with stamina a must-have in this race, especially in soft/heavy ground, then the Evan Williams runner – PRIME VENTURE (e/w) – looks a good option. He was fourth in the Welsh National over 3m6f back in December and is only a pound higher in the ratings. Yes, it won’t be easy with 11st 12lbs to carry, but 3 horses (from last 16) have won this this burden so it can be done. A recent second at Exeter was another fair effort – doing his best work at the finish, so, unlike most of the others, at least we know he’s run well over this sort of trip in the past. Of the rest, Petite Power and the Pipe-trained Hugo ‘N Taz are others to consider.
Lingfield Horse Racing Trends (ITV4)
2.05 – Betway Hever Sprint Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 5f6y ITV4
12/13 – Rated 96+
11/13 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
10/13 – Had raced at Lingfield before
9/13 – Raced 6 weeks or longer ago
9/13 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
9/13 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
8/13 – Placed favs
8/13 – Ran at Lingfield last time out
4/13 – US bred
4/13 – Winning favourites
4/13 – Mare winners
3/13 – Trained by David Barron
0/13 – Winners from stall 1
Royal Birth won the race in 2017
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 15/2
RACING AHEAD VERDICT: Royal Birth took this race in 2017 so has to enter the mix, but at 9 years-old is not getting any younger – but is 10 races without a win now, so that would be a worry. Watchable is a CD winner that heads here in form after a nice win at Wolverhampton, but the 105-rated Good Effort sets the standard and has won it’s last three in decent fashion. Draw one will be a bonus to his backers too, but he’s not going to be much value in the betting. So, I’m going to take a chance on the Karl Burke runner – HAREEM QUEEN (e/w). This 4 year-old has won three of her last five races and despite those coming at Southwell has looked a pacey sort that should cope with the different surface here at Lingfield. Being a mare, she will also get a handy 8lbs off Good Effort and that brings her mark of 93 a lot closer to the likely favourites. Of the rest, Furious would have a squeak, as would the proven CD winner Corinthia Knight if bouncing back to form.
3.15 – Betway Winter Derby (All-Weather Championship Fast-Track Qualifier) (Group 3) Cl1 1m2f ITV4
16/17 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or shorter
14/17 – Won by a horse aged 6 or younger
13/17 – Priced 8/1 or shorter in the market
13/17 – Had run at Lingfield previously
13/17 – Won over at least 1m2f previously
13/17 – Had raced at either Lingfield (8) or Kempton (4) last time out
12/17 – Winning distance – less than a length
11/17 – Placed in their last race
11/17 – Drawn in stall 7 or less
11/17 – Came from the top 3 in the market
11/17 – Won at Lingfield previously
11/17 – Had raced within the last 8 weeks
10/17 – Won their last race
9/17 – Won at least 6 times previously
8/17 – Winning favourites
Just 2 of the last 14 Winter Derby Trial winners have gone onto win the Winter Derby
The average winning SP in the 17 renewals is 6/1
RACING AHEAD VERDICT: Trainer John Gosden won this race 12 months ago and he looks to have another strong hand – this time with Dubai Warrior and Court House. Of the pair, Court House was runner-up in the race 12 months ago so has to be respected, but was also fairly well-beaten last time out here behind Bangkok. CD winner, Dubai Warrior will have a certain Frankie Dettori riding and also beat Court House easily last time (3 ¾ lengths). There is only four pounds between Dubai Warrior and BANGKOK, but that still might be enough to see the Andrew Balding runner prevail. This 4 year-old took well to the surface and the track on his sole run here last time out when winning the AW Derby Trial by an easy 4 ½ lengths and a repeat of that run would see him very hard to beat. Of the rest, the 2018 winner of this race – Master The World – isn’t getting any younger at 9 years-old but might just outrun his odd – if there are firms offering top 3 or 4 places in this 7 runner race, then he could be the place value.
