Plenty more Cheltenham Festival clues on offer this Saturday as the ITV cameras head to both Newbury and Warwick to take in seven races across the two venues.
At Newbury the Denman Chase, Betfair Hurdle and Betfair Exchange Chase are the standout contests – don’t forget, last season Native River took the Denman Chase before winning the Cheltenham Gold Cup.
Then up at Warwick we’ve three more LIVE ITV races, including the Grade Two Kingmaker Novices’ Chase one of the features.
So, as always, we’ve got it all covered here at RACING AHEAD with all the key trends, plus our verdict, on each of the LIVE ITV races – we’re confident these trends will point you in the direction of a few winners, or at least help narrow down some of the field to highlight the horses that fit the best profile of past winners – So, let’s get going!
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NEWBURY Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)
1.50 – Betfair In-Play Handicap Hurdle Cl2 3m52y ITV4
13/14 – Had won no more than 3 times over hurdles before
12/14 – Had run within the last 10 weeks
10/14 – Had won over at least 2 ½ miles (hurdles) before
10/14 – Aged 7 or younger
10/14 – Carried 10-13 or more
10/14 – Winning distance – 3 ½ lengths or less
9/14 – Unplaced last time out
9/14 – Carried 11-0 or more
7/14 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
6/14 – Aged 7 years-old
6/14 – Winners that went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
5/14 – Had run over hurdles at Newbury before (no winners)
3/14 – French bred
3/14 – Won last time out
3/14 – Winning favourites
2/14 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/14 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
2/14 – Raced at Haydock last time out
RACING AHEAD VERDICT: If running, the Nicky Henderson-trained Welsh Saint will be popular after a solid third at Cheltenham last time out in a Listed Novices Hurdle, while former course winner – Acey Milan – would have it’s supporters if you can forgive it’s recent poor showing at Chepstow. He was sent off favourite that day and after finishing 6th and well back in the field it’s clear that wasn’t his true running and could easily bounce back. One For The Team and Star Of Lanka are consistent sorts that should make their presence felt, but I was impressed with the way the Philip Hobbs-trained DOLPHIN SQUARE won at Ludlow last time out. This 6 year-old has won 4 of his 7 hurdles starts and a 6lb rise for that 3 length win last time looks fair. He travelled well through the race that day and looks the sort to have more to come, albeit in this better race. Of the rest, the 9 year-old – VIVE LE ROI (e/w) – despite falling down on the main age trend is another that can go well. He’s finished in the top three in 14 of his 24 hurdle starts and was another solid second in a Listed Hurdle at Kempton last month. He gets in here off the same mark so another similar performance should see him in the shake-up too.
2.25 – Win Bigger On The Betfair Exchange Chase (Registered as The Game Spirit Chase) (Grade 2) Cl1 2m92y ITV4
14/14 – Priced 5/1 or shorter in the betting
13/14 – Placed favourites
13/14 – Aged 8 or younger
12/14 – Winners went onto run in that season’s Champion Chase (3 winners)
11/14 – Raced within the last 8 weeks
11/14 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
11/14 – Had won at least 4 times over fences before
10/14 – Winning distance – 5 lengths or more
8/14 – Won last time out
8/14 – Winning favourites
7/14 – Had raced at Newbury (fences) before (5 winners)
6/14 – French bred
6/14 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
5/14 – Ran at Sandown last time out
4/14 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
4/14 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
3/14 – Winners that went onto win that season’s Champion Chase
2/14 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty
2/14 – Winners that went onto win that season’s Arkle Chase
Altior has won the last two renewals (2017 & 2018)
Note: The 2019 running was staged at Ascot
RACING AHEAD VERDICT: All eyes here will be on the return of ALTIOR – the current Champion Chase that has won the last two renewals of this race. We last saw him losing his unbeaten record over obstacles when Cyrname got the better of him at Ascot in the Christy 1965 Chase, but with Henderson reporting after that he didn’t feel the horse was totally right for that return then racing fans will be hoping to see the ‘old’ Altior back here. Plans for the King George and a step up in trip were torn-up after that defeat over 2m5f so the star 2m chaser is back in trip here and back to a stomping ground that he’s won twice before. The recent reports coming out of the Seven Barrows yard is that he’s back to his best at home and being rated 175, he’s still a massive 12lbs clear of his nearest rival here – Sceau Royal. A convincing win here will see his Champion Chase odds of around 3/1 shorten – but all jump racing fans will just want to see him return to his best and then set up a fascinating clash with Defi Du Seuil and Chacun Pour Soi at the Festival. Of the rest, the already mentioned Sceau Royal can go well too and made Altior pull out all the stops in the Champion Chase last season at Cheltenham, but he’s now 6 races without a win and was also 3 ¼ lengths behind Bun Doran, who also line-up here, in the Desert Orchid Chase at Kempton over Christmas. The return of the Paul Nicholls-trained Dynamite Dollars adds a further sub-plot to the race. He’s been on the sidelines for just over a year after winning three on the spin in the Novice arena back in 2018. He was set to be a big player in the top 2m chase races, but at the age of just 7 years-old he still has plenty of time on his hands and it will be interesting to see just at what level he returns at. I’ll be sticking with ALTIOR here though to return to winning ways and with that throw his hat back into the ring for defending his Champion Chase crown at the Festival next month.
3.00 – Betfair Denman Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 3m ITV4
14/16 – Had won at least 4 times over fences (UK) before
14/16 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
13/16 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
13/16 – Rated 150+
12/16 – Placed favourites
12/16 – Aged 8 or younger
12/16 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
11/16 – Winners that went onto race in that season’s Gold Cup (4 winners)
10/16 – Raced at either Cheltenham (4) or Kempton (4) last time out
10/16 – Had won over fences at Newbury before
7/16 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
7/16 – Won last time out
7/16 – Winning favourites
6/16 – Irish bred
6/16 – French bred
5/16 – Winning distance – ¾ length or less
4/16 – Winners that went onto win the Gold Cup (Coneygree, Denman, Kauto Star & Native River)
3/16 – Returned a double-figure price
3/16 – Ridden by Richard Johnson
2/16 – Won by the Pipe stable
7 of the last 13 winners were aged 7 years-old
The average SP in the last 13 runnings is 3/1
RACING AHEAD VERDICT: It’s a shame this Grade Two will lack a few more staying chasers from the top-draw but really it will be a surprise if the 2017 and 2018 hero of this contest – NATIVE RIVER – isn’t adding a third Denman Chase to his CV. This Colin Tizzard-trained 10 year-old is around 14/1 for the Gold Cup next March and an easy win here could see those odds firm up a tad, but not much. He’s the clear top-rated in the field but despite having to give 3lbs and 6lbs to some of the others is still very much the one to beat. He returned to the track back in December with a very easy win at Aintree in the Many Clouds Chase so clearly retains his top-class ability and we know this track will suit having won here 4 times and remaining unbeaten at the Berkshire venue over fences. He’s only finished out of the top three once from his 17 runs over fences and that came with a fair fourth in last season’s Cheltenham Gold Cup. Of the rest, Native River’s old rival – Might Bite – could also line-up but since that famous 2018 Gold Cup duel the Henderson horse has never looked the same and his last five runs have all been very average – failing to even complete in three of them. Of course, his old form would make him a big player – especially getting 6lbs from Native River – but he’s got a lot of questions surrounding his name and at the age of 11 years-old he just might not be able to answer his critics. For me, the Nicholls-trained Secret Investor can do best of the rest.
3.35 – Betfair Hurdle (Handicap) (Grade 3) Cl1 2m110y ITV4
17/17 – Carried 11-8 or less in weight
16/17 – Aged 7 or younger
15/17 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
15/17 – Rated 130 or higher
14/17 – Won between 2-4 times over hurdles in the UK/IRE before
14/17 – Had raced within the last 8 weeks
14/17 – Came from the first 7 in the betting
14/17 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
14/17 – Aged either 5 or 6 years-old
12/17 – Winning distance – 3 lengths or less
12/17 – Placed favourites
10/17 – Carried 10-9 or less in weight
9/17 – Came from the top 5 in the betting
8/17 – Won last time out
8/17 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
8/17 – Irish bred
7/17 – Aged 5 years-old (including 7 of last 13)
7/17 – Winning favourites
4/17 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
3/17 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (has won the race 5 times in all)
3/17 – Trained by Gary Moore
3/17 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies (3 of last 6)
2/17 – Raced at Leopardstown last time out
2/17 – Owned by JP McManus
1/17 – Went onto win the County Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival that season (Spirit Leader 2003)
22 of the last 23 winners have been aged 7 or younger
The average winning SP in the last 17 runnings is 13/1
RACING AHEAD VERDICT: Another ultra-competitive renewal of this popular handicap hurdle. There’s plenty of key trends to note though – like 16 of the last 17 winners aged 7 or younger, which would actually rule out one of the main fancies – Not So Sleepy, who is an 8 year-old. Mill Green (8), Magic Dancer (8) and Remiluc (11) are others that might be deemed too old. With ALL of the last 17 winners also carrying 11st 8lns or less then this stat knocks out the topweight – Gumball, who has 11st 12lbs to lump round. 5 year-old have won 7 of the last 11 runnings though and with that in-mind the three I like here are NEVER ADAPT, STOLEN SILVER and NEFF (e/w). The former is from the Nicky Henderson yard that have won this race 5 times in the past and is also owned by JP McManus, who also loves to target this prize. She gets in here with just 10-13 to carry and looked progressive when winning well at Kempton last time out. Barry Geraghty rides. Stolen Silver ran on really well to get up on the line to beat Edwardstown at Haydock last time out and also had another runner here – Thebannerkingrebel – back in third that day. The slightly longer trip here will help and the Twiston-Davies camp are another that have a decent record in this race – winning it three times since 2014, including 12 months ago. The final main pick – Neff – also hails from a yard that have had success in this race in the past – Gary Moore – and could go well at a bigger price. This 5 year-old ticks a lot of the main trends and even though this is a big step up in class he did it well the last day at Fontwell and could have more to offer, especially with just 10-3lbs to carry! Of the rest, the hat-trick seeking Mack The Man will have his supporters too, while Oakley, the Greatwood Hurdle winner, Harambe and the already mentioned Thebannerkingrebel, are others that can go well.
WARWICK Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)
2.05 – Kingmaker Novices´ Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 2m ITV
9/9 – Aged 7 or younger
8/9 – Raced in the last 8 weeks
8/9 – Won over 2m fences before
7/9 – Had won no more than twice (fences) in the UK
7/9 – Returned 5/2 or shorter in the betting
6/9 – Rated between 137-147
5/9 – Aged 5 or 7 years-old
5/9 – Won last time out
4/9 – Winning favourites
3/9 – Unplaced favs
4 of the last 5 winners have been 6 year-olds
Note: 2009 renewal was at Sandown
RACING AHEAD VERDICT: Some promising Novice Chasers on show here but the ratings suggest that the Dan Skelton-trained NUBE NEGRA just edges it. This 6 year-old has won two of his 3 chase starts and wasn’t disgraced when a close-up second at Sandown in the Henry VIII Novices’ Chase. He had Torpillo back in fourth that day, while the slightly less demanding track here should help. He’s also had 2 months to get over that so will return here fresher than most, plus is also a proven CD winner over fences here when winning at the track back in October. Of the rest, Rouge Vif has the form to go well, while Precious Cargo, who is from the Nicky Henderson yard that have a cracking 64% record with their chasers at track, and Fanion D’Estruval are others to note if running.
2.40 – St Mary’s Lands Warwick Mares´ Hurdle (Listed Race) Cl1 2m5f ITV4
Just 5 previous running
5/5 – Aged 6 or 7 years old
5/5 – Had won over at least 2m4f (hurdles) before
4/5 – Didn’t win last time out
4/5 – Favourites placed 1st or 2nd
4/5 – Won at least 4 times over hurdles before
3/5 – Had run in the last 6 weeks
3/5 – Rated between 141 and 149
3/5 – Returned 5/2 or shorter in the betting
2/5 – Winning favourites
2/5 – Irish bred
2/5 – Had run at Warwick before
Trainer Willie Mullins has won 2 of the last 5 runnings
RACING AHEAD VERDICT: The likes of Copper Gone West, Coded Message, Legends Gold and Ch’ti Diamond can go well, while if running Guardia Top will be expected to make a bold bid from the front. However, this might be a good chance for the Paul Webber-trained INDEFATIGABLE to grab a deserved win. She’s been running in some hot mares’ only races recently with credit, but the opposition here today looks a bit easier than she’s been facing. The better ground is also a big plus in her favour, providing there isn’t any more rain then conditions also look ideal for this 7 year-old.
3.15 – Warwick Castle Handicap Chase Cl2 (5yo+) 2m4f ITV4
9/9 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
9/9 – Irish (3) or French (6) bred
8/9 – Aged 9 or younger
8/9 – Won between 1-3 times over fences before
7/9 – Favourites that finished in the top three
7/9 – Didn’t win last time out
7/9 – Had raced in the last 7 weeks
7/9 – Unplaced in their last race
7/9 – Had won over at least 2m4f (fences) before
5/9 – Carried 11-0 or more
3/9 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
RACING AHEAD VERDICT: GENEROUS DAY flopped last time out at Cheltenham, but the return to Warwick will be a plus as he does seem to save his best for this track – he’s 2-from-2 here – and based on that might be worth keeping the faith with. Course winner, Belami Des Pictons, has to be considered on it’s best form but needs to bounce back from two average runs so far this season, while the more consistent pair of Gala Ball & Katpoli are three others that can’t be ruled out if making the final entries. Gala Ball was a gutsy winner at Wincanton last time out, but he does seem to save his best for that venue. However, the other main pick is the Dan Skelton-trained TWO TAFFS (e/w). This 10 year-old has had it’s issues over the last few seasons but returned back in October after a wind operation to run well at Wetherby in a Grade 2 Hurdle. Yes, he flopped in the Ladbroke Trophy Chase (Hennessy) last time but has had plenty of time (2 ½ months) to get over that. The drop back to 2m4f also looks a good move for this Dan Skelton-trained runner, while the slightly better ground is also in his favour – with his best form over the years coming in good or good-to-soft conditions. The yard also boasts a decent 31% record with their chasers at the track.
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