We’ve eight more LIVE races this Saturday as the ITV cameras are at Ascot, Haydock and Taunton. The Grade One Clarence House Chase is the main event at Ascot – Did you know 16 of the last 18 Clarence House Chase winners came from the top three in the market?
At Haydock, we’ve three more LIVE races to take in that include the Peter Marsh Chase – a race that 16 of the last 17 winners have won carrying 11-3 or less in weight. We’ve also got the The New One Unibet Champion Hurdle Trial, as race named in honour of The New One, who won this prize many times in the past.
While, a big day at Taunton too with the ITV cameras heading there to show their Weatherbys Portman Cup (2.15) – a race the Paul Nicholls-trained Yala Enki won 12 months ago.
So, as always, we’ve got it all covered here at RACING AHEAD with all the key trends, plus our verdict, on each of the LIVE ITV races – we’re confident these trends will point you in the direction of a few winners, or at least help narrow down some of the field to highlight the horses that fit the best profile of past winners – So, let’s get GOING!
Ascot Horse Racing Trends (ATR/ITV)
1.15 – Matchbook Betting Podcast Mares´ Hurdle (Registered As The Warfield Mares´ Hurdle Race) (Grade 2) Cl1 3m ITV4
11/11 – Priced 5/2 or shorter
10/11 – Officially Rated 133 or higher
10/11 – From the top 4 in the betting
10/11 – Won over at least 2m5f (hurdles) previously
8/11 – Later ran in that season’s OLBG Mares’ Only Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival
8/11 – Ran within the last 4 weeks
8/11 – Ran at either Haydock (4) or Newbury (4) in their last race
7/11 – Won at least twice over hurdles in the UK before
7/11 – Favourites placed
7/11 – Won their last race
6/11 – Winning Favourites
4/11 – French bred
4/11 – Raced at Ascot previously
3/11 – Aged 6 years-old
2/11 – Trained by Harry Fry
2/11 – Later finished second in the OLBG Mares’ Only Hurdle (Cheltenham Festival)
1/11 – Won the OLBG Mares’ Only Hurdle (Cheltenham Festival) – Vroum Vroum Mag (2016)
Trainer Harry Fry won 2 of the last 6 runnings
Magic Light won the race in 2019 and 2020
RACING AHEAD VERDICT: A decent little renewal. I think on the ratings it’s fair to say that a win for Coded Message and Midnight Tune. Eglantine Du Seuil ran well last time at Cheltenham (2nd), but the step up to 3m is a bit of an unknown and I’m not sure she’s been crying out for it, on a plus she does get a handy 6lbs from the main two. So, that leaves the top-rated in the field – Roksana and the winner of this race for the last two years – Magic Of Light. The former is the clear form pick after her close third to Paisley Park in the Long Walk Hurdle here last time and the form of her win over Next Destination, who she beat the time before at Wetherby, has since been franked with that horse winning since. She’s rated 4lbs higher than Magic Of Light so is the likely favourite, but I’m happy to take her on with MAGIC OF LIGHT, who loves this race. Yes, this year’s renewal looks harder than recent ones, but her proven stamina will be a big plus in conditions and she showed she retains her ability with an easy win at Newbury over fences last month. She’s also the only course winner in the field.
1.50 – Matchbook Better Way To Bet Holloway´s Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) Cl1 2m3f58y ITV4
11/13 – Aged 7 or younger
10/13 – Priced 5/1 or bigger in the betting
10/13 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or less
10/13 – Officially rated 139 or higher
10/13 – Carried 10-11 or more in weight
9/13 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
8/13 – Ran within in the last 4 weeks
7/13 – Winners from outside the top 3 in the betting
6/13 – French bred
6/13 – Went onto race in that season’s Coral Cup (best finish 3rd)
6/13 – Won at least 4 times over hurdles in the UK previously
6/13 – Won their last race
6/13 – Aged 6 years-old
6/13 – Had raced at Ascot previously
3/13 – Trained by David Pipe
3/13 – Raced at Cheltenham in their last race
2/13 – Later raced in that season’s World Hurdle (best finish 3rd)
2/13 – Ridden by Tom Scudamore
2/13 – Favourites (1 co)
Thomas Darby (8/1) won the race in 2020
Ballymoy (4/1) won the race in 2019
Note:
2006 – Renewal at Lingfield
2005 – Renewal at Haydock
RACING AHEAD VERDICT: With 11 of the last 13 winners aged 7 or younger then of the 12 runners that leaves us with BOTOX HAS, LIGHTLY SQUEEZE, NORDANO, WAR LORD, ARRIVEDERCI, I K BRUNEL and CRAIGNEICHE. 10 of the last 13 winners also carried 10st 11lbs of more in weight, so of those seven only Craigneiche is ruled out. Nordano is a proven CD winner here, but that came off a 11lb lower mark and he’s struggled a bit since that hefty rise up the handicap ranks. The Harry Fry yard have a cracking 26% record with their hurdlers here though and with that in mind their LIGHTY SQUEEZE (e/w) gets the nod. This 7 year-old ran a blinder here last time out, behind Not So Sleepy (3rd) and with that run coming off the back of a wind op and his first for 3 months then should be a lot fitter too. He’s up in trip here too, but has won over this 2m3f distance in the past, while Sean Bowen in the saddle is another bonus. I think War Lord can go well too, but a chance is also taken on the Jonjo O’Neill runner – ARRIVEDERCI (e/w). Yes, he was well behind Lightly Squeeze in the same race here last month, but he was sent off the joint favourite that day – the jockey reported the horse just ran flat. Okay, so he’s got to bounce back from that, but had shown up well in his two previous races and was going well when falling at Haydock back in November. He’s dropped a pound and with a month to get over that last race and over this longer trip then he might be worth giving another chance to. Of the rest, Danny Kirwan is the only other CD winner in the field and hails from the powerful Nicholls yard, while recent winners – Dans Le Vent, Paddys Motorbike and Kateson would all have obvious claims coming here clearly in good form.
3.00 – bet365.com Handicap Chase Cl2 2m5f110y ITV4
13/14 – Won between 1-3 times over fences in the UK previously
12/14 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
12/14 – Ran within the last 4 weeks
12/14 – Either French (5) or Irish (7) bred
11/14 – Priced 8/1 or shorter
11/14 – Won over at least 2m4f (fences) previously
11/14 – Officially Rated 130 or higher
10/14 – Favourites that finished in the top 4
10/14 – Aged 8 or younger
9/14 – Carried 10-13 or less in weight
8/14 – From the top 3 in the betting
7/14 – Placed in the top 3 in their last race
6/14 – Winning distance – 6 lengths or further
5/14 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
4/14 – Raced at either Cheltenham (2) or Chepstow (2) last time out
3/14 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (3 of last 6 runnings)
3/14 – Won their last race
2/14 – Trained by Richard Rowe
2/14 – Winning Favourites
Domaine De L’Isle (5/1) won the race in 2020
Note:
2006 – Renewal at Lingfield
2005 – Renewal at Uttoxeter
RACING AHEAD VERDICT: A very competitive renewal of this 2m5f handicap chase – you can certainly make a case for most. Course winners, Bennys King, who was second in this race last year, Dashel Drasher, Acting Lass and Espoir De Guye all merit respect, but with the Paul Nicholls yard having won this race three times in the last six years then their CAPELAND (e/w) is the call. The Nicholls camp are also in great form at the moment and this 9 year-old heads here off the back of a top win at Wincanton. He beat an improving sort that day (Evander) well and is only 4lbs higher. He’s another that’s won at the track in the past and has form on soft/heavy ground so the conditions should be fine. I think the consistent Windsor Avenue can go well too, but the others of interest are last year’s winner DOMAINE DE L’ISLE and JERRYSBACK. The former hasn’t won since taking this prize 12 months ago, but is back do to that winning mark and will love the ground. Yes, his recent runs have been poor, but a return to this venue might just spark him back to life. Then Jerrysback hasn’t been seen since running here in Dec 19. He’s clearly had his issues, but is a talented horse on his day, with some decent back form, plus the Hobbs yard have been amongst the winners in midweek. Richard Johnson rides too and his form here at Ascot reads well (2nd and 3rd).
3.35 – Matchbook Betting Exchange Clarence House Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 2m1f ITV
17/17 – Raced within the last 7 weeks
17/17 – Won at least 3 times (fences) previously
16/17 – Won by a horse aged 9 or younger
16/17 – Won a race over fences at 2m1f or further
15/17 – Winners from the top 3 in the betting market
15/17 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
15/17 – Favourites placed
13/17 – Won by a French-bred horse
12/17 – Won their last race
11/17 – Went onto run in that season’s Champion Chase (4 winners)
11/17 – Raced at Sandown or Wetherby last time out
10/17 – Favourites that won
9/17 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
9/17 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or less
7/17 – Won by a horse aged 8 years-old
5/17 – Had won the Tingle Creek Chase (Sandown) last time out
4/17 – Went onto win the Champion Chase that season (2009 – Master Minded, Sprinter Sacre 2013, 2014 Sire de Grugy, 2015 Dodging Bullets)
4/17 – Won by the Paul Nicholls stable (won the race 5 times in all)
3/17 – Trained by Willie Mullins
3/17 – Won by the Nicky Henderson stable (won the race 5 times in all)
2/17 – Won by the Pipe stable
Since 1989 there have only been 3 winners aged in double-figures
Since 1989 (28 runnings) there have been 12 winners aged 8 years-old
The average winning SP in the last 15 runnings is 3/1
Note:
2006 – Renewal at Sandown
2005 & 2017 – Renewals at Cheltenham
RACING AHEAD VERDICT: Onto the main event and it looks set to be a cracker. The likes of First Flow, Duc Des Genievres and Fanion D’Estruval would all have claims to hit the frame at fair prices, but they all have a fair bit to find at the ratings with the three main players in the race – Politologue, Waiting Patiently and Defi Du Seuil. A case can certainly be made for then all! Defi Du Seuil was a top winner of this race 12 months ago, but has since flopped in both the Champion Chase and the Shloer Chase, so is on a big recovery mission. He’s a strange horse as on his day he’d probably be favourite here and could not have been more impressive in this race last year – beating the classy Un De Sceaux. However, he’s also had his flat spots in his career, so has become a hard horse to trust. Those looking to stick with him will know he’s bounced back before – don’t forget he won the 2017 Triumph Hurdle and was billed as the next best thing and hit the buffers at the end of the 2017 year and most of 2018. But as we all know, he bounced back to win the 2019 JLT Novices’ Chase at the Cheltenham Festival, plus landed the 2019 Tingle Creek and this race 12 months ago. The Hobbs team have also been having several winners this midweek and he’s still only an 8 year-old! If returning to form, his price might look very big after the race. Waiting Patiently is, of course, another of the other main players, after his excellent second in the King George over Xmas. The drop back to 2m 1f will be the big talking point for him, but he’s a horse that travels well and has plenty of pace – this could easily be the making of him as we know he stays further too and in these conditions and at the stiff Ascot track, his stamina is sure to play a big part at some stage. But his last win was in Feb 2018 and that is a tiny concern, despite only having had five races since. So, that leaves us with POLITOLOGUE – arguably, the horse with the least amount of question marks to his name at the moment. He was an easy winner of the Tingle Creek last time out and, like Waiting Patiently, we know he stays a bit further than this 2m1f trip too. He’s the current Champion Chaser too and probably hasn’t been given the credit he deserves for that win. Soft ground is fine, and the Nicholls yard are in great form too, while he’s the top-rated in the field (just) and has won twice over fences here at Ascot. It’s a fascinating contest, but the safest option, for me, looks to be POLITOLOGUE.
Haydock Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV)
1.30 – Sky Bet Supreme Trial Rossington Main Novices´ Hurdle (Registered As The Rossington Main Novices´ Hurdle) (Grade 2) Cl1 2m ITV
14/14 – Aged 7 or younger
14/14 – Won between 1-2 times over hurdles previously
13/14 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
13/14 – Priced 9/2 or shorter in the betting
9/14 – Won their last race
8/14 – Aged 5 years-old
7/14 – Winning Favourites
6/14 – Had raced at Haydock previously
4/14 – Ran at Haydock last time out
4/14 – French bred
3/14 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/14 – Went onto win the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle
2/14 – Ran at Ascot last time out
2/14– Trained by Venetia Williams
2/14 – Trained by Donald McCain Jnr
Stolen Silver (9/2) won the race in 2020
Note: 2004 Renewal was staged at Wetherby
RACING AHEAD VERDICT: Some very promising sorts on show here, with four of the five runners all recent winners. Anythingforlove has done little wrong in winning her last two and looks a nice prospect for the Jamie Snowden yard, but this is a big step up again and the ratings suggest she’s got a bit to find. The 141-rated Llandinabo Lad is the one to beat and was a nice CD winner here in November, but he’s got to give weight away all-round and needs to bounce back from being a beaten favourite last time out. Minella Drama was beaten just over 5 lengths behind Llandinabo Lad back in October, but has probably improved since to win twice, albeit in much easier races. Faivoir also comes here in winning form after an easy success at Ludlow, but a chance is taken on the Michael Scudamore runner – NADA TO PRADA. This 6 year-old has caught the eye in winning her last two starts and should have more to come. She’s also won over further (2m3f) in the past so that proven stamina will be a plus, while she was also a good winner at this track last time and that experience will help. She gets 7lbs off Llandinabo Lad too, so that will bring her rating 132 much closer and with a tiny bit of improvement is chanced to continue her good form.
2.40 – Peter Marsh Chase (A Limited Handicap) (Grade 2) Cl1 3m1f ITV
17/17 – Won on ground described as soft or worse previously
16/17 – Aged 8 or older
16/17 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
16/17 – Carried 11-3 or less in weight
15/17 – Had run within the last 36 days
12/17 – Won at least 3 times over fences previously
12/17 – Officially Rated 139 or higher
12/17 – Won at Haydock previously
12/17 – Carried 10-12 or less in weight
11/17 – Favourites unplaced
10/17 – Irish bred
10/17 – Won before (fences) over at least 3m
9/17 – Won between 3-5 times over fences before
9/17 – Aged either 8 or 9 years-old
9/17 – From outside the top 3 in the betting
9/17 – Finished in the top 3 in their last race
9/17 – Won over fences at Haydock before
7/17 – Went onto finish unplaced in that season’s Grand National
7/17 – Ran at Wetherby last time out
6/17 – Raced in the Rowland Meyrick (Wetherby) last time out
6/17 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
5/17 – Trained by Sue Smith
4/17 – Ridden by Danny Cook
2/17 – Trained by the McCain stable
2/17 – Won their last race
2/17 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 17 runnings is 10/1
RACING AHEAD VERDICT: The Venetia Williams yard are going well at the moment and they look to have a decent staying chaser on their hands here with ROYALE PAGAILLE, who has won his last two. However, he’s been raised a big-looking 16lbs from the last of those wins and even though he was very impressive the last day at Kempton, that’s a big jump and he’s also got a huge weight 11st 10lbs to carry here. I can’t put you off him, but I don’t think he’s much value. Course winner Sam’s Adventure is only 6lbs higher than his win here last month but also only has 10st 7lbs to carry this time. But a chance is taken on another ‘Sam’ – in SAM BROWN. This lightly-raced 9 year-old could have more scope than most with only four runs over fences and last time he ran the useful Imperial Aura to 3 lengths at Carlisle. He’s off the same mark here but the step up in trip looks interesting. Okay, he’s got to prove he stays this far and that’s an unknown, but has won over 2m 7 1/2f in the past so the signs are good. Heavy ground is fine too and despite the 83-day break he’s a horse that’s gone well fresh in the past. Of the rest, the Colin Tizzard yard have a 20% record with their chasers here so their LAMANVER PIPPIN (e/w) is worth a saver too. He ran poorly last time out at Chepstow as favourite, but is better than that based on his 1 length second at Cheltenham the time before. He gets in here with a lowly 10st 4lbs in weight and Nico de Boinville is an eye-catching jockey booking.
3.15 – The New One Unibet (Registered as the Champion Hurdle Trial) (Grade 2) Cl1 2m ITV4
15/15 – Won at least twice over hurdles in the UK before
15/15 – Favourites placed in the top 3
13/15 – From the top 3 in the betting
12/15 – Ran within the last 5 weeks
12/15 – Finished in the top three in their last race
12/15 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s Champion Hurdle
12/15 – Priced 5/2 or shorter
12/15 – Officially Rated 150 or higher
11/15 – Won at least 3 times over hurdles previously
11/15 – Either French (3) or Irish (8) bred
11/15 – Ran at either Cheltenham (4) or Kempton (7) last time out
8/15 – Aged 7 or younger
8/15 – Winning Favourites
4/15 – Placed in the top 4 in that season’s Champion Hurdle (no winners)
3/15 – Won their last race
1/15 – Went onto win that season’s World Hurdle
Ballyandy (5/2) won this race in 2020
RACING AHEAD VERDICT: Last year’s winner, Ballyandy, will make another bold bid, but with BUVEUR D’AIR in the race it’s going to be a much harder task than 12 months ago. Ballyandy has to give 6lbs away to Buveur D’Air too and is also rated 6lbs inferior. The vibes from the Henderson yard are also that his former Champion Hurdler – Buveur D’Air – is showing signs he’s back to near his best, having last been seen losing the Fighting Fifth Hurdle in 2019. He had an excuse that day and was found to be lame too, while the fact connections have kept him in training is another good sign he’s showing up well at home. He’ll need to win this this if he’s to bid for another Champion Hurdle triumph in March, but I think he can.
Taunton Horse Racing Trends (ATR/ITV)
2.10 – Weatherbys Portman Cup Chase (GBB Race) Cl2 (5yo+) 3m4 1/2f ITV4
2 previous runnings
Yala Enki (11/10 fav) won the race in 2020
Trainers Paul Nicholls and Colin Tizzard have won the race before
Trainer Kim Bailey has a 50% record with his chasers at the track
Trainer Tim Vaughan has a 20% record with his chasers at the track
Jockey Bryony Frost has a 27% record riding over fences at the track
RACING AHEAD VERDICT: If The Cap Fits can go well, being the only course winner in the field, but it’s hard to get away from last year’s winner of this race – YALA ENKI. This Paul Nicholls runner is the class act in the contest again and is the clear top-rated in the field at 161 – that’s 3lbs higher than Al Roc and he also gets a handy 4lbs from that Dr Newland runner. Staying is this 11 year-olds game and despite being an 11 year-old now, showed he retains his love for the game with a solid third in the Welsh National earlier this month at Chepstow. Of the rest, Rock The Kasbah was runner-up in this race 12 months ago – beaten 5 ½ lengths, but it’s hard to see him overturning that form. The fly in the ointment, is probably the already mentioned Al Roc, who is having his first run in this country so it’s hard to assess his form. This French stayer has won 6 of his 40 races over fences and will clearly love the soft/heavy ground, but this extreme trip will be the furthest he’s gone to date so getting home would be an unknown – the longest he’s gone so far is 2m 71/2f. Therefore, I’m more than happy to stick with a proven stayer over this sort of trip and a proven past winner of the race too!
