Saturday Horse Racing Tips & Trends: 12th Oct 2019

This weekend as the ITV cameras head to Newmarket and York to take in seven LIVE races.

At HQ its the second day of the Newmarket Dubai Future Champions meeting, plus there is also LIVE racing from York. Plenty to get stuck into again with the ultra-competitive Cesarewitch Handicap one of the key betting races of the flat turf season, while the race is supported by the Autumn & Dewhurst Stakes.

Did you know that 14 of the last 17 Cesarewitch Handicap winners carried 9-2 or less and had also raced in the last 2 months?

As mentioned, ITV cameras are also at York to take in three races, with the feature being the Coral Sprint Trophy – a race that has seen ALL of the last 16 winners having raced in the last 4 weeks.

So, as always, we’ve got it all covered here with all the key trends, plus our verdict, on each of the LIVE ITV races – we’re confident these trends will point you in the direction of a few winners, or at least help narrow down some of the field to highlight the horses that fit the best profile of past winners.



Newmarket Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV)


2.20 – Godolphin Flying Start Zetland Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 1m2f ITV

12/12 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
11/12 – Foaled in Feb, Mar or April
11/12 – Had raced in the last 4 weeks
11/12 – Won no more than twice before
10/12 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
10/12 – Placed favourites
10/12 – Had won over at least 1m before
9/12 – Drawn in stalls 2-5 (inc)
7/12 – Won last time out
6/12 – Came from stalls 2 or 3
6/12 – Winning favourites
3/12 – Ran at Leicester last time out
2/12 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
2/12 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/12 – Trained by the Hannon yard
2/12 – Won by a Godolphin-owned horse
0/12 – Winners from stall 1
Trainer Aidan O’Brien has won the last two runnings
Irish-trained winners have won 3 of the last 4
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 7/2

A rare 2 year-old runner for the Alan King yard – Tritonic – that are more famed for their jumpers, but after two impressive wins at Ffos Las and Newbury this colt has to be considered. However, this has been a race that the Godolphin and Aidan O’Brien teams have done well in of late and they look to dominate again here. The ‘boys in blue’ of Godolphin run Volkan Star, who won well at Goodwood last time out. This is a step up in trip, but breeding suggests he’ll be fine, and with some fancy Group One entries looks well thought of – he can go well. But the O’Brien yard have won the last two runnings of this race so their MYTHICAL gets the nod. This Camelot colt was very impressive when winning his maiden by 8 ½ lengths at Gowan Park last month and holds a Derby entry for next season too. The longer trip should bring out more too and any rain won’t be an issue having won on soft ground last time. Of the rest, the Gosden yard won this in 2016 and run Miss Yoda, who is unbeaten from two races – Frankie rides and looks another for the shortlist, while MAX VEGA was a good winner at Pontefract last time out over a mile and with the expected improvement after just two career runs looks the sort that cane make the leap up in grade.

2.55 – Dubai Autumn Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 1m ITV

14/14 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
13/14 – Had won over at least 7f before
13/14 – Had raced at least twice before
12/14 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
12/14 – Placed favourites
11/14 – Won between 1-2 times before
10/14 – Won last time out
10/14 – Priced 9/1 or shorter in the betting
9/14 – Foaled in Feb or March
9/14 – Irish bred
5/14 – Winning favourites
3/14 – Godolphin winners
2/14 – Ridden by William Buick
2/14 – Trained by Saeed Bin Suroor
1/14 – Irish-trained winners
7 of the last 12 winners came between stalls 3-5
The last 2 winners came from stall 9
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 9/1

Note: From 2009 back the race was staged at ASCOT, while the 2005 running was at Salisbury

Most of the big yards on show here and with a 23% record with their 2 year-olds at the track, the Charlie Appleby and Aidan O’Brien yards should be respected. O’Brien runs PERSIA, who got off the mark at the second attempt in impressive fashion at Galway. That came on soft ground so any more rain will be fine and with some fancy G1 entries is clearly held in high regard. Frankie and John Gosden team-up with Cherokee Trail, who has done little wrong in winning his two starts to date, but I just feel he made hard work of things last time at Newbury and this will be harder still. Godolphin run two – Al Suhail and Military March – of the two the last-named might just have the more improvement with just one run. It’s hard to ignore the Roger Varian runner – Molatham too after winning the Listed Flying Scotsman Stakes last time out at Donny and the step up from 7f to a mile will help. He can go well, but might nit be much value. The danger to the pick can come from the Haggas runner, JOHAN (e/w), who won easily by 6 lengths at Musselburgh last time out over 7f. Give in the ground is fine and is another that should like the step up in trip. He could be the e/w value in the race. The final one to note is the unbeaten Mark Johnston runner – Dontaskmeagain – who has don little wrong in winning his two starts to date. More is needed here but the stable’s juveniles are always tough individuals so would not be a shock if he ran better than his odds suggest.

3.30 – Darley Dewhurst Stakes (Group 1) (Entire Colts & Fillies) Cl1 7f ITV

17/17 – Raced at least 3 times that season
15/17 – Yet to race at Newmarket (Rowley)
15/17 – Placed in their last race
13/17 – Won over 7f previously
12/17 – Favourites placed
12/17 – Won at least 3 times previously
12/17 – Won their last race
12/17 – Won a Group race previously
10/17 – Raced at either Goodwood (2), Longchamp (2) or the Curragh (6) last time out
10/17 – Won by an Irish-based stable
10/17 – Foaled in either Feb or March
8/17 – Favourites that won
6/17 – Winning distance – ½ length or less
6/17 – Placed horses that came from stall 2
5/17 – Returned 20/1 or bigger
5/17 – Trained by Jim Bolger
5/17 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (6 wins in total)
5/17 – Ridden by Kevin Manning
5/17 – Finished in the top 2 in the 2000 Guineas the following season
2/17 – Won the Epsom Derby the following season
1/17 – Winners that came from stall 1
The Irish have won 10 of the last 13 runnings
3 of the last 9 winners came from stall 3
Aidan O’Brien has trained 3 of the last 4 winners
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 7/1

The O’Brien runner Wichita would be a warm order here if a certain PINATUBO wasn’t in the race. Wichita was an easy winner over course and distance of the G3 Somerville Stakes last month and still looks a horse with a big future. However, Pinatubo has been the star juvenile of the season so far and is rated 14lbs higher than Wichita already. This Godolphin colt has now won all his five previous starts and the latest of those was an easy 9 length romp of the G1 National Stakes at the Curragh last month. He’s entered in next season’s 2000 Guineas here and another win here will further cement his place at the top of that market. The likes of Arizona and Positive are others to consider but a place looks the best they can hope for.

4.10 – Emirates Cesarewitch Stakes (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 2m2f ITV

16/17 – Aged 4 or older
14/17 – Had won over at least 1m6f on the flat before
14/17 – Had run within the last 2 months
14/17 – Carried 9-2 or less
13/17 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
11/17 – Had 3 or more previous flat runs that season
11/17 – Finished 4th or better last time out
11/17 – Aged 5 or older
11/17 – Had won over at least 2m on the flat before
10/17 – Drawn in stall 13 or lower
10/17 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
9/17 – Had won 4 or more times on the flat before
8/17 – Ran at either Ascot, Chester or Doncaster last time out
8/17 – Had run at the track before
8/17 – Placed favourites
8/17 – The first three home ALL returned a double-figure price
8/17 – Won by a NH trainer
4/17 – Winning mares
3/17 – Winners from stall 1
3/17 – Ridden by Silvestre De Sousa
3/17 – Winning favourites
2/17 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/17 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
2/17 – Won last time out
The average winning SP in the last 17 years is 18/1
Just 2 winning favourites since 1993

31 runners here for another ultra-competitive running of the Cesarewitch Handicap, but at least we’ve some decent trends to take into account. With 16 of the last 17 winners aged 4 or older then the 3 year-olds in the race – Land Of Oz, Rochester House, Ranch Hand Summer Moon and Themaxwecan all have this against them. Of that bunch the Prescott runner – Land Of Oz – could be the handicap blot in the race with only 8-1 to carry and he’s now won 5 of his last 6 races, including the Cesarewitch Trial for this race here back in September. He’s rated just 4lbs higher here and with winning form on all ground types then he’ll be a dangerous horse to rule out – those looking to take him on will have 30 other runners on their side this time though (only beat 7 last time), while draw 30 might not be ideal with 10 of the last 17 winners coming from stalls 13 or lower. Prescott also runs TIMOSHENKO (e/w) though and this 4 year-old returned from a long break to beat Seinesational by a neck at Goodwood last time out. He’s 5lbs higher for that but has now won all his last 6 races and is another typical Prescott handicap improver that would have had this race as a target for a while. He’s been freshened-up with around 8-9 weeks off again, but is clearly a horse that likes to run fresh, while draw 12 looks a good starting berth. The powerful Willie Mullins yard won this race last year and run Stratum, Buildmeupbuttercup and GREAT WHITE SHARK (e/w). All three are respected, and with Frankie, who last won this race in 2011, riding Buildmeupbuttercup, this 5 year-old is sure to be popular. But he’s been well-supported all week and the value looks to have gone now – he’s way too short for a race with 31 runners in for me. However, their Great White Shark could be the better value. This 5 year-old has been running well over hurdles of late but won the last time she races on the flat (Galway, July) and William Buick catches the eye in the saddle. This 5 year-old gets in here with just 8-9 to carry in weight and draw 10 looks likely to give him options. Of the rest, the likes of Ranch Hand has been popular in the betting, but at the age of just 3 might be vulnerable so the Alan King runner – WHO DARES WINS (e/w) – who often goes well in these big-field staying handicaps might be worth an interest too. He was 4th in the Marsh Cup back in July but was a cracking 4th in the G1 Prix Du Cadran at Longchamp last Saturday and as long as that race hasn’t taken too much out of him would have a say on that form. The useful Angus Villiers has also been booked to ride and he claims a handy 7lbs from the saddle to bring his top-weight of 9-10 down.


York Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV)


2.40 – Rockingham Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 6f ITV

16/16– Had raced within the last month
15/16 – Had won between 1 and 3 times before
13/16 – Foaled in March or later
13/16 – Had 4 or more runs that season
12/16 – Had never raced at York before
12/16 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
12/16 – Winning distance – 1 ¼ lengths or more
11/16 – Had won over 6f before
10/16 – Placed favourites
8/16 – Unplaced last time out
7/16 – Ran at either Redcar (5) or Newbury (2) last time out
5/16 – Won last time out
5/16 – Winning favourites
4/16 – Winners from stall 2
4/16 – Filly winners
3/16 – Placed horses from stall 1
3/16 – Trained by Tim Easterby
3/16 – Ridden by David Allen
The horse from stall 6 has won 4 of the last 9 runnings

Some promising sorts on show here, including Stormy Girl, Misty Grey, Cobra Eye, Stone Circle and Huraiz but it’s hard to get away from the Tim Easterby runner – LAMPANG. The yard have actually won this race three times since 2012 too, including 12 months ago and this 2 year-old they’ve got this year looks likely to maintain that good record. He was green on debut but still ran on well in the closing stages at Carlisle to win well and then backed that up with a smooth success at Ripon last month. He took that by 5 lengths that day and looks the sort to have a lot more to come. Of the rest, Cobra Eye and Stormy Girl can do best of the rest.

3.15 – Smart Money’s On Coral Handicap (96 Plus Race) Cl2 1m2f88y ITV

Just six previous runnings
5/6 – Returned 10/1 or shorter
4/6 – Aged 3 years-old
4/6 – Ridden by Franny Norton (2) or Adam Kirby (2)
0/6 – Winning favourites
2 of the last 3 winners came from stall 8

Just the six previous runnings of this race but we are yet to have a winning favourite – this, therefore, might be deemed a negative for the John Gosden runner – Harrovian – who looks likely to go off as the market leader. The Mark Johnston yard took this race 12 months ago and have a decent chance with Victory Command and Dark Vision on their best form, but both head here off the back of below-par runs and would need to bounce back. Trainer Richard Fahey is just 10 from 147 with his 3 year-olds at the track so despite being a good winner last time out over course and distance a 6lb rise for that in this better race might find him out. Fahey also runs FOREST RANGER (e/w), who will find this ease in grade more to his liking and of the yards runners might be foolish to ignore back in a handicap – he’s one for the shortlist. The other one to have on side is BIG COUNTRY (e/w). This 6 year-old returned to form with a third in a Listed race at Ayr last time out and is another that should enjoy the drop back in grade. Connections have booked Mark Crehan to ride and claim 7lbs, plus he’s a horse that’s run well at the track before.

3.50 – Coral Sprint Trophy (Handicap) Cl2 6f ITV

16/16 – Ran within the last 4 weeks
16/16 – Had won at least 3 races before
15/16 – Had run at York before
15/16 – Had won a race over 6f before
14/16 – Had raced 6 or more times that season
12/16 – Aged 5 or younger
11/16 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
9/16 – Carried 9-1 or less
9/16 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
9/16 – Unplaced favourites
9/16 – Rated between 92 and 98
9/16 – Winning distance – ¾ lengths or less
8/16 – Drawn in a double-figure stall
5/16 – Raced at Ascot last time out
4/16 – Won last time out
2/16 – Winning favourites
2/16 – Trained by Richard Fahey
2/16 – Trained by Kevin Ryan (last 2 winners)
2/16 – Trained by Michael Dods
1/16 – Filly or mare winners
4 of the last 10 winners were ridden by a claiming apprentice
Major Jumbo (12/1) won the race in 2018
Teruntum Star (10/1) won the race in 2017
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 11/1

Another tough sprint handicap to unravel here. With ALL of the last 16 winners running in the last 4 weeks then this will help knock some out – Air Raid and Bernardo O’Reilly. Having run at York is another plus, as is having 6 or more races this season. Being aged 5 or younger is another stat that knocks a few out – Ice Age, George Bowen, Alaadel, Louie De Palma, Lancelot Du Lac, Get Knotted, Intisaab, Gunmetal, Growl and Danzeno. The Haggas runner – Aplomb – has been well-supported all week and ticks a lot of boxes, but this 3 year-old is rated 9lbs higher than it’s last win and doesn’t look great value in a race with 21 other runners in. The consistent SUMMERGHAND (e/w) looks sure to run his race as always and is the first one to have on side. Draw 13 looks fine and he’s been knocking on the door in races like this of late. He was 4th in the Challenge Cup over 7f last Saturday but the return to 6f looks a positive. If might also be worth taking a chance on HEY JONESY (e/w) and STAXTON (e/w), who are more than capable of running well on their best form, despite the fact they’ve been running a bit below-par of late. The former – Hey Jonesy – also represents the winning stable of the last two years – Kevin Ryan – while his form at the track is decent 1-3-2-5. Staxton was 10th in the Ayr Gold Cup last time, but was actually only beaten 3 ¼ lengths and is a pound lower again here and off a mark of 97 is starting to look well-treated again.





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