Andy Newton’s Free Tips and Trends: Saturday 27th July 2019

Another big Saturday of horse racing action with the ITV cameras heading to Ascot for four races that include the Group One King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes, while they are also at York to take in three more contests that include the Skybet Dash.

We’ve got is all covered with all the LIVE races covered from a trends angle.

ASCOT Horse Racing Trends (ITV/ATR)

 

1.50 – Princess Margaret Keenland Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies) Cl1 6f ITV

14/16 – Returned 11/2 or shorter in the betting
14/16 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
13/16 – Had won just once before
13/16 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
13/16 – Favourites that finished in the top 4
11/16 – Won over 6f before
10/16 – Foaled in either Feb or March
9/16 – Winning favourite
7/16 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
5/16 – Ran at Ascot last time out
4/16 – Won last time out
2/16 – Won by the Hannon yard
3/16 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
7 of the last 13 winners were Irish bred
9 of the last 13 horses from stall 1 were placed
4 of the last 7 winners came from stall 1
Angel’s Hideaway (11/4) won the race 12 months ago

Note: The 2005 renewal was staged at Newbury

RACING AHEAD VERDICT: Ultra Violet made a pleasing debut when winning well at Newmarket. She’s clearly a decent filly and that’s backed up by holding some fancy entries later in the season. So Sharp and Good Vibes are others that have done little wrong to date and can go well, while the Irish raider – Punita Arora – has to be respected coming over from the Jessie Harrington yard. But the call there is for SUMMER ROMANCE to make it 3-from-3. This Godolphin filly won by an impressive 6 lengths last time out at HQ and is another that holds some fancy entries later in the year. She’s the clear top-rated in the field and the Appleby yard boast a cracking 30% record with their 2 year-olds at Ascot.

 

2.25 – Porsche Handicap Cl2 1m ITV

Only 8 previous runnings
7/8 – Carried 8-8 or more
6/8 – Winners between stalls 9-15
5/8 – Had won just once before
5/8 – Unplaced favourites
4/8 – Raced at Ascot last time out
3/8 – Returned 10/1 or bigger in the betting
3/8 – Won last time out
3/8 – Irish bred
2/8 – Ridden by William Buick
2/8 – Winning favourite
Sunny Speed (9/2 fav) won the race 12 months ago
Trainer Sir Michael Stoute won the race in 2016
Trainer William Haggas won the race in 2014
Trainer Hughie Morrison won the race in 2012

RACING AHEAD VERDICT: With 7 of the last 8 winners carrying 8-8 or more in weight then of the 8 runners this actually rules out three – Rectory Road, Sash and Prince Of Harts. The Balding-trained Flashcard looks to be running into form so can go well, while with Frankie riding for Gosden, then Beatboxer is another that is sure to be popular. Motakhayyel has won three of it’s last four and should be going close too, but this could be another for the boys in blue of Godolphin. They run WINGS OF TIME, who heads here having won two of it’s last three. Yes, a 6lb rise for a recent head win at HQ looks a tad harsh, but that was only his fourth career run and should have more on come. Trip and ground are ideal, while having won over a bit further then, the stiff Ascot track will suit too.

 

3.00 – Moet & Chandon International Stakes (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 7f ITV

16/16 – Ran within the last 5 weeks
16/16 – Had raced at Ascot previously
15/16 – Won by a horse aged 5 or younger
13/16 – Won over 7f previously
13/16 – Favourites unplaced
12/16 – Carried 8-9 or more in weight
12/16 – Won between 2-4 times previously
11/16 – Returned a double-figure price in the market
11/16 – Winners that came from outside the top three in the market
10/16 – Aged 4 years-old
10/16 – Winning distance – 3/4 length or less
7/16 – Raced at Newmarket last time out
5/16 – Won their last race
4/16 – Raced at Ascot last time out
3/16 – Trained by Mark Johnston
2/16 – Trained by Clive Cox
2/16 – Ridden by Jimmy Quinn
1/16 – Winning favourites
Burnt Sugar (20/1) won the race in 2018
Trainer Richard Fahey has won the race three times in the last 9 years
10 of the last 12 winners ran at either Ascot, Newmarket or Haydock last time out
9 of the last 12 winners came from a double-figure stall
8 of the last 12 winners finished in the top 5 last time out

Note: The 2005 running was staged at Newbury

RACING AHEAD VERDICT: 29 runners here, but with 9 of the last 12 winners hailing from a double-figure stall then those drawn 1-9 are overlooked. 12 of the last 16 winners also carried 8-9 or more in weight, but this only rules out the bottom two – Land Of Legends and Diocles Of Rome. It’s a race the Mark Johnston yard have done well in too – they run VALE OF KENT and LAKE VOLTA, plus with Frankie and Ryan Moore riding the pair, these are others to have on your radar. The Richard Fahey camp have also won 3 of the last 9 runnings, so their ZAP might be worth a small saver at a big price, while the other one I like here is RAISING SAND. This 7 year-old loves Ascot and was a decent third here in the Royal Hunt Cup last time out. He gets in off the same mark and won’t mind it if any of the forecast rain turns up – he’s one of just three proven CD winners in the race, with the others being Ripp Orf and last year’s hero Burnt Sugar.

 

3.40 – King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes (Sponsored By Qipco British Champions Series) (Group 1) Cl1 1m4f ITV

17/17 – Previous Group 1 or 2 winners
16/17 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
16/17 – Had 2 or more runs already that season
15/17 – Had won over 1m4f before
14/17 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
14/17 – Placed last time out
13/17 – Previous Group 1 winner
12/17 – aged 4 years-old
10/17 – Had run Ascot before
10/17 – Won their previous race
8/17 – Favourites that won
8/17 – Ran at Royal Ascot last time out
6/17 – Won at Ascot before
4/17 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
Frankie Dettori has ridden the winner in 1995, 1998, 1999, 2004 and 2017
2 of the last 5 winners were that season’s Epsom Oaks winner
Galileo (2001) was the last horse to do the Derby/King George double
Trainer Sir Michael Stoute won the race in 1981, 1983, 2002, 2009, 2010 & 2018
Trainer Saeed Bin Suroor won the race in 1995, 1997, 1998, 1999 & 2004
Trainer Aidan O’Brien won the race in 2001, 2007, 2008 & 2016
The average winning SP in the last 17 runnings is 7/2

RACING AHEAD VERDICT: A cracking renewal of the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes – we’ve the 2017 winner Enable trying to win back her crown, plus last year’s runner-up Crystal Ocean. While if you add in this season’s Epsom Derby winner – Anthony Van Dyck – and the Hardwicke Stakes hero – Defoe – then there’s a lot to get excited about. The ratings suggest the last-named – Defoe – would need another step forward as he’s rated 8lbs inferior to Crystal Ocean and 6lbs behind Enable, but he’s a proven CD winner and certainly has place claims still. The Derby winner – Anthony Van Dyck – will get the 3 year-old allowance of 11lbs from Crystal Ocean and 8lbs off Enable so that certainly makes him interesting – he’ll be looking to become the first Derby winner to add the King George in the same season since Galileo (2001). Last year’s runner-up, Crystal Ocean, has bounced back this season better than ever with three wins on the bounce and the most-recent an excellent success in the Group One Prince Of Wales’s Stakes at the Royal Meeting. He’s yet to finish out of the top three from his 14 turf starts (8 wins) and being the top-rated in the field it’s hard to knock his chance. He’s just as good at 1m2f and over this 1m4f trip and acts well at the track – it will be a shock if he’s not in the top three at the very least. He beat Magical by 1 ¾ lengths the last day and with ENABLE only beating that same horse ¾ of a length then the pair are obviously very closely-matched. However, the Gosden mare gets a handy fillies’ allowance here (3lbs) and being that last run was her first 8 months then we can expect her to have come on a lot. I also feel she’s a better horse over this 1m4f trip and was hugely impressive in her 2017 win here. Any rain that might be forecast is fine too so I’ll take her to make it win number eleven on the spin! Of the rest, Cheval Grand and Waldgeist have squeaks of hitting the frame if showing their best form, but really it will be a shock if the winner isn’t coming from one of the first two in the betting.

 

YORK Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

2.05 – Skybet ‘Get Knotted’ Handicap Cl2 7f ITV

11/11 – Carried 9-3 or more
10/11 – Returned 8/1 or shorter
10/11 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
9/11 – Had won over 7f before
9/11 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
7/11 – Had won at York before
5/11 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
4/11 – Returned 4/1 in the betting
4/11 – Rated between 73 and 80
3/11 – Trained by Michael Dods
2/11 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
2/11 – Won by the David O’Meara yard
1/11 – Won last time out
Get Knotted (11/2) won the race in 2016, 2017 & 2018

RACING AHEAD VERDICT: With the race named in honour of the winner of this prize for the last three seasons, then it’s hard to get away from GET KNOTTED. This Michael Dods-trained 7 year-old has made this race his own in recent times so if it isn’t broke, then why fix it? He’s also 5lbs lower than last year and despite having not won since taking this prize 12 months ago, would have had this as a target for some time. Of the rest, Love Dreams, Penwortham and Medahmin are others that can go well, but the other CD winners in the field – STARLIGHT ROMANCE (e/w) and TOMMY TAYLOR (e/w) might be worth small each-way interests too back at a track we know they like.

2.40 – Sky Bet Dash (Handicap) Cl2 6f ITV

15/15 – Raced within the last 5 weeks
14/15 – Had won between 2-6 times before
13/15 – Carried 8-12 or more
13/15 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
11/15 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
12/15 – Aged 5 or younger
12/15 – Drawn in stall 10 or lower
10/15 – Placed favourites
10/15 – Raced at either Hamilton, York, Newmarket or Ascot last time
9/15 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
9/15 – Had run at York before
6/15 – Winning favourites
2/15 – Trained by Richard Fahey
2/15 – Won last time out
8 of the last 13 winners carried 9-0 or more
Flying Pursuit won the race in 2017 and 2018

RACING AHEAD VERDICT: Plenty of old faces line-up again here and this cold be another race that goes to a past winner – FLYING PURSUIT (e/w). This 6 year-old has won the last two renewals of this and looks poised to go well again. Yes, draw 16 might not be ideal – as 12 of the last 15 winners came from stalls 10 or lower, but he’s 2lbs lower than his win last season. Duke Of Firenze is another to consider and has had a top season this term. Connections have given him a small break but he’s a horse that loves York and should be freshened up to go well too. Encrypted and Gulliver are both draw low and well, so can be expected to be popular too, but the other main pick is STAXTON (e/w). This 4 year-old is also draw well (6) and represents the same connections as Flying Pursuit. A recent third at Hamilton was a solid effort and acts on all ground. He’s won off a mark just a pound lower than this too and has run well at this time of the year for the last few seasons. Of the rest, the in-form Tomily, who has won his last three, can’t be overlooked, while course winners Dakota Gold and Golden Apollo are others that have shown a liking for the track in the past.

3.15 – Sky Bet York Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 1m2f88y ITV

12/13 – Aged 6 or younger
12/13 – Favourites that finished in the top 3
11/13 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
10/13 – Had won over 1m2f before
10/13 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
10/13 – Had won at least 4 times before
8/13 – Horses from stall one that finished in the top two
8/13 – Rated between 112 and 117
7/13 – Had run at York before
6/13 – Ran at Sandown last time out
6/13 – Winning favourites
3/13 – Aged 6 years-old
2/13 – Trained by Saeed Bin Suroor
Thundering Blue (5/1) won the race 12 months ago

RACING AHEAD VERDICT: The ratings suggest that the 121-rated Regal Reality is the clear one to beat and after an excellent third last time at Sandown in the Eclipse it’s hard to crab his chance. He was only 2 ¾ lengths off Enable that day and a reproduction of that form would make him hard to beat. However, he’s likely to not be much value so I might take a chance here with ADDEYBB (e/w). This William Haggas runner was a very impressive winner of the Wolferton Stakes at Ascot in June and on that running would have a squeak. Yes, he is stepping up from Listed company into a Group Two but any rain would be a plus and he looked to have a lot more to offer at the line last time. He travelled well into the race that day and with another strong pace on the cards here, then he should have no excuses. Course winner – Elarqam can also go well, while the Balding-trained Bangkok, gets a handy 9lbs from most of the others which brings him right into the mix. He was a decent runner-up in the King Edward VII Stakes last time at Royal Ascot and is actually 2-from-2 over this 1m2f trip. Forest Ranger and Knight To Behold make up the six runners and are certainly no back numbers but might have to settle for a place at best in this company.

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