The Grade Three Grand National Trial Chase is staged at Haydock racecourse each year and provides racing fans with further clues ahead of the Grand National. That said, the race is all but a trial in name as since 1980 we’ve not seen a winner of the Unibet Grand National Trial follow-up that season in the Aintree marathon – Suny Bay, the 1997 winner, did go onto finish second at Liverpool in the National. The 2005 winner, Forest Gunner, went onto run a respectable fifth, while in 2017 we saw the David Pipe-trained Vieux Lion Rouge win this trial before going onto finished a respectable sixth in the Grand National a few months later.
In 2019, we saw the Colin Tizzard-trained Robinsfirth win the race to give the yard their first success in the race, while last year in 2020 Smooth Stepper was the 33/1 winner of the race.
Here at RACING AHEAD we look back at recent winners and gives you the key stats to take in the 2021 renewal – this year set to be run on Saturday February 20th.
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Recent Haydock Grand National Trial Winners
2020 – SMOOTH STEPPER (33/1)
2019 – ROBINSFIRTH (8/1)
2018 – YALA ENKI (8/1)
2017 – VIEUX LION ROUGE (8/1)
2016 – BISHOPS ROAD (13/2)
2015 – LIE FORRIT (8/1)
2014 – RIGADIN DE BEAUCHENE (16/1)
2013 – WELL REFRESHED (9/2 fav)
2012 – GILES CROSS (4/1 fav)
2011 – SILVER BY NATURE (10/1)
2010 – SILVER BY NATURE (7/1)
2009 – RAMBLING MINSTER (18/1)
2008 – MIKO DE BEAUCHENE (17/2)
2007 – HELTORNIC (12/1)
2006 – OSSMOSES (14/1)
2005 – FOREST GUNNER (12/1)
2004 – JURANCON II (10/1)
2003 – SHOTGUN WILLY (10/1)
Haydock Grand National Trial Betting Trends
18/18 – UK-based trained winners
18/18 – Had won between 2-4 times over fences (rules) before
16/18 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
14/18 – Finished in the top three last time out
14/18 – Had won just 2 or 3 times over fences (rules) before
14/18 – Aged 10 or younger
14/18 – Had raced within the last 7 weeks
14/18 – Rated 135 or higher
12/18 – Aged 9 or younger
12/18 – Finished in the top two last time out
12/18 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
11/18 – Carried 11-0 or less
10/18 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
8/18 – Won last time out
8/18 – Unplaced favourites
7/18 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s Grand National (all unplaced)
7/18 – Irish-bred winners
4/18 – Winners that won by exactly 15 lengths
4/18 – Ran in the Welsh Grand National last time out
3/18 – Won with 11-12 in weight
3/18 – Finished 1st or 2nd in the Welsh Grand National last time out
3/18 – Trained by Lucinda Russell
2/18 – Winning favourites
2/18 – Trained by Venetia Williams
4 of the last 6 winners returned 8/1 in the betting
The average winning SP in the last 18 runnings is 10/1
Let’s be honest, February is a close second to January when it comes to most people’s least favourite months of the year and with the bulk of the country still in lockdown there’s not a lot to be cheerful about at the moment!
However, we can be thankful that racing is still on, the warmer months are ahead of us and with the Cheltenham Festival now firmly in sight, there’s a lot coming up on the horizon.
It’s around this time of the year that the Grand National interest also starts to pick up pace, and this is backed-up with this month’s Haydock Grand National Trial – staged this year on Saturday February 20th.
Well, in truth, the trades description people could have a case against the title of this race as it’s a Grand National Trial in name, rather than actually producing the winner of the Merseyside Marathon in April!
Yes, run over a trip of 3m 4 ½f, this Grade Three Chase is billed as a Grand National trial, but we are yet to see a winner land both races in the same season!
The closest we’ve come was when the mighty Red Rum took the Haydock trial in 1975, but could only manage second in the Aintree Grand National that year. Many winners don’t even make it to the big race in Liverpool.
Other notable years were in 1997, when Suny Bay won this race and went onto finish second at Aintree, while, more recently, in 2017 the David Pipe-trained Vieux Lion Rouge went onto be sixth later that season.
In 2019, we saw the Colin Tizzard yard win the prize for the first time with their 10 year-old Robinsfirth, but didn’t go onto even run in the Grand National and the same applied to the 2020 winner – Smooth Stepper – who was also absent in the big race.
That said, even though we are still looking for the first horse to win both races, it’s still a contest that is worth looking back on in a few months when National fever grabs the nation, plus it’s also a one that has some key trends that have built up over the years.
So, what are the main trends to look for?
Stable Diet: Firstly, ALL of the last 18 winners came from a UK-based yard, but with the Irish not having had many runners in recent years, this isn’t really a stat that’s going to find you the winner with the bulk of the runners again this year expected to be home-based trained.
But there are a few domestic yards to note. The 2017 Grand National winning stable of Lucinda Russell have had three winners in this race since 2010. While the Venetia Williams team have won two of the last seven. You’d also feel that now the Colin Tizzard camp have broken their duck in the race (2019) then anything they run should be respected. David Pipe, Michael Scudamore, Gary Moore and Kerry Lee are others that have won this race since 2007.
Staying Power: Being run over 3m 4 ½ f, then it goes without saying having stamina in abundance is a ‘must-have’ for any horse to win this race. This is backed-up with horses that have winning form over at least 3m (chase) winning 16 of the last 18 renewals. It’s slightly more interesting that ALL of the last 18 winners had only won between 2-4 times over fences before – suggesting ‘up-and-coming’ stayers, that might not yet be in the handicapper’s grip, are the ones to focus on.
Age Concern: The previous stat is also backed-up with 12 of the last 18 winners aged 9 or younger, with 14 of the last 18 (78%) aged 10 or younger. Yes, last year’s winner – Smooth Stepper – was an 11 year-old, so kicked this age trend into touch – but the last winner aged older than 11 was back in 1958! Therefore, overall, history tells us that it’s pretty safe to rule out any real old-timers.
Recent Form: Having a good recent run is another plus. 14 of the last 18 (78%) winners finished in the top three last time out, while if you want to take look at this stat in another way then it might pay to note that 12 of the last 18 (67%) winners of this Grand National trial actually finished first or second in their most recent race.
With 14 of the last 18 winners also having raced in the last seven weeks, then having a recent outing is also key, plus the same amount (14 of the last 18) were rated 135 or higher.
Betting Market: It’s also worth noting the interest in certain runners in the betting market. This approach of ‘following the money’ can be a good guide to most races, but with only two winning favourites from the last 18 runnings, then it’s a contest the bookmakers are holding sway over the punters in recent years. We’ve also seen 12 of the last 18 winners come from outside the top three in the betting, so don’t be afraid to look a bit further down the betting market – backed up again 12 months ago when Smooth Stepper returned 33/1. While it’s probably more of a coincidence, but a bit of a ‘fun stat’ here as we’ve seen four of the last six winners return 8/1!
Weight Watchers: Being a handicap and over this gruelling trip, then the weight carried also plays a huge role. In recent years we’ve seen 11 of the last 18 winners carry 11-0 or less to victory, so this is not a bad cut-off point to have – last year’s winner only had 10st! That said, it is worth pointing out that four of the last six winners carried 11st 4lbs or more, so this weight trend might be taking a turn the other way with better class horses targeting the race.
Horses that ran in the Welsh National last time out (9th Jan 21) are also worth noting with 4 of the last 18 winners having run in that Chepstow race.
So, to conclude – if the best of the trends are anything to go by, then we are very unlikely to see the winner go onto success in the Aintree Grand National in a few months – let alone even run there! And with that in mind – for me – the jury has to be out on how long the race continues to have the tag ‘Grand National Trial’ – it’s basically only because this race is run over one of the longer trips. Why not, have a new Aintree fixture in February that has a 3m4f race run over the actual National fences – plonk in a few other decent races that could give horses prep outings for Cheltenham and you’ll be ticking a lot of boxes…………anyway!
However, it’s still a fascinating contest to watch, with plenty of old staying favourites likely to line-up again. Once the final entries are out, I’ll be looking out for those aged 9 or younger, that have proven form over 3m+ (fences) and that finished first or second in the last seven weeks. While don’t forget to respect any Venetia Williams, Lucinda Russell and Colin Tizzard-trained runners.
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