There is nothing like a few ante-post wagers in the autumnal months to lighten up the punting world and although I have already put forward some long-term wagers a few months back, time has re-shaped the prospective line-ups for the Cambridgeshire, Cesarewitch and Arc.
Let us deal with the last named where Mogul made his mark on the French feature with an impressive come from behind win in the Grand Prix de Paris. The race was set-up for him with a red-hot pace up front, but he showed a really tidy turn of foot to score.
I actually think he would have been a bigger player in the Champions Stakes at Newmarket, but Mr O’Brien may just know a bit better than me. Get to know the US betting market more intimately with TVG Montana betting odds.
Having said that I wanted to see English King run in the St Leger at Doncaster and Pyledriver in the Arc and I fancy that I was vindicated to some degree by their runs in the middle of September. And please help me out readers, why oh why is William Muir aiming the latter at the Champion Stakes? Yours, a perplexed tipster.
Despite those Arc trials, Enable and Love remain at the head of the market, but both the mare and filly remain vulnerable on my ratings. The former has still to show anywhere near her previous best form and will have the tables turned on her from her first Arc where she received all the allowances but here she will have to give weight/age away to some progressive youngsters.
I was hugely impressed by the Prix Vermeille winner Tarnawa with her conclusive success over the short-priced favourite Raahibah. I think both fillies will go to post on the first week in October with claims. The winner remains underestimated in the market at 20/1, while the latter is interesting at around the 16/1 mark. I have backed both each-way to turn over their more star-studded female rivals.
I still think we didn’t see the very best of Serpentine in the Grand Prix de Paris as he raced way too close to a hot pace and ran a solid trial until lack of fitness quite obviously compromised his winning chance. Up to a big looking 20/1 is still available about the Epsom Derby winner and he could yet be a player with that race merely being a warm-up for the big day.
For me, much will depend on the going on October 4. On a fast surface Love would probably be the right favourite, but should the rains come then I think her chance would be hugely compromised and the Grand Prix de Paris stayer and runner-up, In Swoop, would probably be the best each-way value at around the 33/1 mark.
The first leg of the Autumn Double, the nine furlong Cambridgeshire, comes a shade too early for this edition of RACING AHEAD, but the Cesarewitch is worth a closer look at being run on October 10.
National Hunt horses hold the whip hand in this famous 2m2f staying event and as such, if the ground were to remain on the fast side of good, I think that Nicky Henderson’s classy mare VERDANA BLUE would be a near certainty. She loves a quicker surface, travels well and has a potent turn of foot to boot and granted a solid draw she looks very difficult to keep out of the equation at double figure odds.
But there is also plenty of value further down the lists and having a foot in both ‘going’ camps is the way I would like to go. Should we get some give in the turf at Headquarters then I suspect there could very well be a run of money on DIOCLETIAN after a lovely warm up race in the Old Borough Cup at Haydock Park.
He only just got going inside the final 300 yards and this race looks absolutely made to measure for him and I wouldn’t sniff at the 25/1 currently available.
I only have one wager in my mind for Champions Day the following weekend where I have built up a nice betting profile on PASSION in the Long Distance Cup.
I think she has been underestimated in the market and with a strong chance that, post Arc, Stradivarius won’t line up at Ascot she could very well start a single figure price.
Used as bait in her races at the highest level more than once this season by Aidan O’Brien, she has always looked like an out-and-out stayer to me, further confirmed in the Irish St Leger and the step up to two miles is what she is crying out for. The added bonus is that she has already shown more than useful form at the Berkshire track and she will do for me.
