The St Leger is the final Classic of the season as three-year-old colts (and fillies) descend on Doncaster for nearly a circuit of the Town Moor track.
This year’s renewal takes place on Saturday, 12 September on what is a busy weekend for the sport of horse racing in the British Isles and beyond.
What market moves have occurred in the run-up to this Group 1 contest over an extended 1m 6f? Take note of these horses.
As key St Leger race trends and stats show, Aidan O’Brien has trained two of the last three winners of the Doncaster Classic. Santiago has been prominent in the ante-post betting ever since he landed the 1m 6f Group 2 Queen’s Vase at Royal Ascot in June.
O’Brien saddled Kew Gardens to win both of those races two years ago, so likes it as a trial. Santiago then just held on when dropping back in trip to 1m 4f for the Irish Derby with erstwhile stable companion Capri doubling that Classic triumph in the Emerald Isle up with St Leger success in 2017.
Your new favourite for the St Leger at @DoncasterRaces – Santiago for @Ballydoyle
đź—Ł Aidan O’Brien: “We thought he would be an ideal Leger horse & we will give him one more run before then.” pic.twitter.com/n5rKpLzoeL
— Racenews (@RacenewsService) June 19, 2020
Off the back of that, Santiago was sent off second-favourite behind Stradivarius in the Goodwood Cup and placed third. There are two ways of looking at that first-ever career start over 2m and against his elders.
Either it was too much too soon for Santiago, or he did not run-up to market expectation. On official ratings, he should have beaten Nayef Road off the Goodwood Cup terms which gave a three-year-old 15lb weight for age from older horses.
This is why some firms, including MansionBet, who offer St Leger Festival betting tips and predictions for the entire meeting, no longer make Santiago the market leader. Regular jockey Ryan Moore rides on Irish Champions Weekend instead, so it looks like someone new will get the leg up.
Two horses backed in the market against Santiago in the weeks leading up to the Leger are Pyledriver and Hukum. The former is trained by William Muir and landed the Group 2 Great Voltigeur, another key trial for this Classic, in fine style under a penalty for his previous King Edward VII Stakes success at Royal Ascot.
On breeding, and that is not the be all and end all with racehorses, Pyledriver may find stepping up in trip by a couple of furlongs a stretch. However, he wasn’t stopping at York last time out with race terms against him and is favourite with some bookmakers now.
Support for Hukum looks significant too. Unlike Santiago, he beat his elders when taking them on in less exalted company with a stylish victory in the Group 3 Geoffrey Freer Stakes at Newbury in August.
Hukum is trained by Owen Burrows for the Shadwell silks sported by owner Hamdan Al Maktoum’s horses. This is big month for the yard as they have other major contenders for Group 1 honours and it could put this stable on the map.
Like Muir, Burrows isn’t one of British Flat horse racing’s major operations. He clearly has a talented colt on his hands with Hukum, who has already progressed past handicap company. Three Royal Ascot winners sit on top of the St Leger market, then, and a good case can be made for backing each.
