As well as the final day of the Newmarket July Festival this Saturday, there is also a cracking card at Ascot, with four LIVE ITV races.
We’ve three competitive handicaps to take in, plus the Group Two Summer Mile (3:!5) – did you know 11 of the last 13 Summer Mile winners came from the top three in the betting and had won over a mile before. While 10 of the last 13 winners had also raced at Ascot in the past.
We’ve got all the key trends and stats for the LIVE ITV races, plus our FREE TIPS.
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Ascot Horse Racing Trends
2.05 – Betfred “Ascot Official Bookmaker* Fillies Handicap Cl3 (3yo+ 0-90) 1m ITV
7 previous runnings
7/7 – Won over at least 7f before
7/7 – Never ran at the course before
7/7 – Ran in the last 5 weeks
7/7 – Won between 1-2 times before
6/7 – Aged 3 years-old
6/7 – Drawn between stalls 3-7 (inc)
6/7 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
6/7 – Carried 8-12 or more in weight
5/7 – Favourites placed
3/7 – Trained by William Haggas
3/7 – Won last time out
2/7 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 7 runnings is 4/1
Just the 7 past runnings, but with 6 of the last 7 winners coming between stalls 3-7 (inc), then EARTH AND SKY, DECLARED INTEREST, QUEEN OF SILCA, MANAABIT and VIVIDLY are the ones of interest. However, with the William Haggas yard having landed this prize 3 times in the last 7 years, then of those already mentioned, their MANAABIT is the call. She returned last month with a nice win at Beverley and a 7lb rise for that looks fair – even that there should be more improvement to come. Draw 6 looks ideal too and the experienced Dane O’Neill rides. Of the rest, I think Earth And Sky and Queen Of Silca, who is seeking a four-timer, can give the selection most to think about.
2.40 – ‘Play Nifty Fifty Exclusively At Betfred’ Handicap Cl2 (3yo 0-105) 1m4f ITV
7/7 – Drawn in between stalls 3-7 (inc)
7/7 – Didn’t win last time out
7/7 – Won between 0-3 times
7/7 – Had run in the last 3 weeks
6/7 – Favourites placed in the first two
5/7 – Drawn in stalls 4 or 6
5/7 – Rated between 83-93 (inc)
5/7 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
4/7 – Ran at Ascot last time out
4/7 – Had run at Ascot before
2/7 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/7 – Godolphin-owned
2/7 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 7 runnings is 15/2
The Godolphin yard have won two of the last three runnings of this race and I think they’ve another good chance this year with DUBAI SOUQ. This 3 year-old was an easy 6 length winner when last seen on the track back in October at Doncaster. He’s been hiked up 11lbs for that success but the way he won suggests that’s warranted. The visor is on for the first time here too so that can bring out a bit more as he won last time out despite taking a strong hold in the race – the headgear can hopefully settle him better, which he’ll need over this longer trip (1m4f). Eastern Sheriff and Celestran are next best.
3.15 – Betfred Summer Mile Stakes (Group 2) Cl2 (4yo+) 1m ITV
13/13 Aged 4, 5 or 6 years-old
11/13 – Had won over at least a mile before
11/13 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
10/13 – Had raced at Ascot before (2 won)
10/13 – Placed favourites
9/13 – Aged either 4 or 6 years-old
8/13 – Previous Group race winner
8/13 – Winning favourites
7/13 – Had won at least 4 times before
5/13 – Aged 4 years-old
5/13 – Won last time out
5/13 – Raced at Ascot last time out
3/13 – Had won a Group 1 before
10 of the last 11 winners were draw in stalls 5 or lower
Trainer William Haggas has won 2 of the last 4 runnings
Trainer Andrew Balding has won the last 2 runnings
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 11/2
All of the last 13 winners of this race were aged 6 or younger, so the 7 year-old in the race – Lord Glitters – has this against him, despite being the top-rated in the field. But it’s another race the William Haggas yard have a good record in – winning 2 of the last 4 – so their SKARDU – might be worth chancing. This 4 year-old didn’t run too badly in the G1 Queen Anne Stakes last time out and a combination is this ease in grade and coming on for the run (297 days off) are reasons to believe he can run better here. He’d probably not want any further rain, while draw 4 looks a plus too with 10 of the last 11 winners coming from stalls 5 or lower. The other runners with the draw stat in their favour are Urban Icon (1), Marie’s Diamond (2), Duke Of Hazzard (3) and Lord Glitters (5). Of the rest, course winner ZAAKI is another I expect to run well and should have come on for his third on his return at Newbury last month.
3.50 – Betfred Heritage Handicap Cl2 (3yo+) 5f ITV
Just 7 previous running7/7 – Ran in the last 3 weeks
6/7 – Didn’t win last time out6/7 – Had won between 2-6 times6/7 – Had won over 5f before6/7 – Returned between 7/1 and 14/1 6/7 – Carried 8-10 or more
6/7 – Aged between 4 and 6 years-old
4/7 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
4/7 – Came from a double-figure stall
3/7 – Ran at Ascot last time out
2/7 – Ridden by Adam Kirby
The average winning SP in the last 7 runnings is 8/1
7 past runnings to go on, but with 6 of the last 7 winners failing to win last time out and also aged between 4-6 years-old then there are some fair stats building up. The horses that are seemingly too old are Final Venture, Ornate and Venturous. The horses that won last time out in the race are Mountain Peak, National Anthem, Jawwaal, Savalas, Tone The Barone and I Am A Dreamer. The Sylvester Kirk yard have a 19% record with their 4+ year-olds in the race so their BENNY AND THE JETS (e/w) could go well at a nice price. He’s just over 4 lengths to make up on Mountain Peak based on their last run at Haydock but has a 5lb pull at the weights here and lost a bit of ground that day at the start – with a better beginning to the race can get a lot closer and prior to that run was an easy winner on the AW at Kempton. Of the others I think STONE OF DESTINY and APLOMB are the others of the main players that can go well. The former is a CD winner that was a close-up 6th in the Wokingham Stakes and is a pound lower here. The drop back to 5f is also a plus. Aplomb hails from the William Haggas yard and also ran well at Ascot last time – when a fair 7th (19) in the Silver Wokingham. He’s been dropped a pound for that and is another that should benefit from the drop back to 5f.
