Another decent day of LIVE ITV this Saturday as the cameras head to Sandown and Newbury to take in seven races across the two venues. And, as always, we’ve got all the LIVE TV ITV trends and stats.
At Newbury, the Group 3 Diomed Stakes (3.35) is their feature contest, while at Sandown the sprinters are in action for the Listed Scurry Stakes (2:40).
So, put the odds in your favour – if a certain trend has happened many times in the past then there is a good chance of it repeating itself. As always, we hope these stats help direct you towards a few winners and pay for the weekend expenses.
Let’s get started!
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Newbury Horse Racing Trends
1:50 – It’s Not Rocket Science With MansionBet Handicap Cl3 (3yo 0-95) 1m2f ITV4
No previous runnings
Trainer John Gosden has a 21% record with his 3 year-olds at the track
Trainer Clive Cox is only 2 from 37 with his 3 year-olds at the track
Jockey Richard Kingscote is only 1 from 24 riding 3 year-olds at the track
RACING AHEAD VERDICT: A tight little race, with all five runners having a say. The Clive Cox runner – It’s Good To Laugh – will be popular after showing some good form last season, but the yard are only 2 from 37 with their 3 year-olds at the track. Jockey Richard Kingscote is having a good time of it since returning from the break and rides Morisco here, but he’s a pilot that is only 1 from 24 riding this age group at the course. Ryan Moore catches the eye riding for Richard Hannon with course winner – Man Of The Night, while the Prescott yard had a winner in midweek so their Tell Me All can’t be discounted. But the call is to side with the Mark Johnston runner – GOLD SOUK. This 3 year-old was a fair runner-up at Donny last October but the step up in trip to 1m2f looks a good move. He’s acted well on a sound surface in the past too and the stable have returned from the break in great form.
2:25 – Watch And Bet With MansionBet At Newbury Maggie Dickson Fillies’ Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 (3yo+) 7f ITV4
Only 3 previous runnings
3/3 – Winners came between stalls 4-6 (inc)
3/3 – Unplaced last time out
3/3 – Had won over 7f in the past
3/3 – Raced in the last 4 weeks
0/3 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 3 runnings is 9/1
Trainer Ed Walker won this race 12 months ago
Trainer Richard Hannon won this race in 2018
Trainer William Haggas has a 37% record with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Jockey Tom Marquand is 0-from-31 riding 4+ year-olds at the track
Note: This race is normally run at Musselburgh
RACING AHEAD VERDICT: Just the three past runnings to go on, but with all three winners coming from stalls 4-6 there might be something building up here. With that in mind, Mubtasimah (4), Lyzbeth (5) and Farzeen (6) fit that draw stat. However, I do feel that having had a recent run will count for a lot in a race like this so the Andrew Balding-trained FOXTROT LADY (e/w), who was a fine fourth at Kempton last week, is the call. This 5 year-old will be fine dropped back to 7f too as she just got caught near the finish for third last time. The Balding yard remain in good form this week and with 12 top three finishes from her 21 turf starts then she’s a fairly consistent sort. Of the rest, Preening is sure to be popular with Ryan Moore riding, while the hat-trick seeking Dancing Feet could also go well for top lady rider Hollie Doyle, who on a side note might not be the worst each-way shout in the top jockeys’ market this season!
3:00 – British Stallion Studs EBF/MansionBet Abingdon Fillies’ Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 (3yo) 1m2f ITV4
10/10 – Won no more than twice before
9/10 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
8/10 – Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
8/10 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
7/10 – Favourites placed in the top 3
7/10 – Drawn between stalls 1-4
7/10 – Had won over at least 1m before
4/10 – Winning favourites
4/10 – Won last time out
3/10 – Trained by John Gosden
2/10 – Ridden by James Doyle
2/10 – Ridden by William Buick
2/10 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
3 of the last 4 winners came from stall 8
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 9/2
RACING AHEAD VERDICT: The William Haggas runner – Domino Darling – will be one for the shortlist after a debut win at Donny last October – she’s got some fancy entries on the horizon that include the Epsom Oaks so is clearly held in high regard. However, the better value might be from the John Gosden stable as they’ve had a good record in this race over the years. They run Franconia here and this Frankel filly could be a lot better than her debut second at Chelmsford suggests. She’ll have come on a lot for that run but the step up from 7f to 1m2f here looks likely to bring her on much more – Frankie Dettori rides. Of the others, CABALETTA is another that caught the eye on debut when winning at Yarmouth – she beat Frankly Darling – that day and with that Gosden runner having franked the form by winning easily at Newcastle last week, then that form looks rock solid. Yes, the Gosden yard will know where they stand, but with the expected improvement this Roger Varian runner – with Ryan Moore riding – has the form in the book to make her a big player. With 3 of the last 4 winners coming from stall 8, then Royal Nation might be one to note of those at bigger prices. While Shatha, Wonderful Tonight and Oriental Mystique were all fine winners last time out and if improved over the winter can’t be totally ruled out either.
3:35 – MansionBet Beaten By A Head Diomed Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 (3yo+) 1m ITV4
17/17 – Had won over at least a mile before
15/17 – Had won a Listed or Group race before
15/17 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
14/17 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
14/17 – Drawn in stall 6 or lower
13/17 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
13/17 – Had won at least 4 times before
13/17 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
12/17 – Aged 5 or older
11/17 – Had raced at Epsom before
8/17 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
6/17 – Won last time out
5/17 – Winning favourites
3/17 – Trained by Andrew Balding
3/17 – Ridden by William Buick
Zaaki won the race in 2019
Century Dream won the race in 2018
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 5/1
Note: This race is normally run at Epsom
RACING AHEAD VERDICT: This race is normally run at Epsom, so the trends might be a treated with a bit of caution. But it’s still a race that we are likely to see the last two winners running in again. Century Dream landed the prize in 2018, while 12 months ago Zaaki took the honours. Both have to be respected again, while the Gosden runner – King Of Comedy – also sets a high standard based on his Group 1 and 2 form of last season. He’s now into a Group Three so will find this company a lot more to his liking and his last run that came on heavy ground can be overlooked in those conditions – his best form has certainly been on better ground. It would be a shock it he’s not involved. But the one that might just have the fitness edge is the Mark Johnston runner – MARIE’S DIAMOND. This 4 year-old won at HQ last week and that was an impressive 4 ¼ length win at Listed level. More will be needed in this better race, but he could not have been more impressive that day and deserves to take his chance. Course winners Tabarrak, Stormy Antarctic and Chatez have at least shown up well at the track to command respect, but of those at a bigger price – LOOK AROUND (e/w) – is interesting. This 4 year-old is from the Andrew Balding yard that have won this race twice since 2012. The yard are going well after the break too and with only 8 career runs there could be more to come. She was last seen running a close third in a G3 at Sandown and should be a much stronger horse now with another 9 months on her back.
Sandown Horse Racing Trends
2:05 – Sutton Handicap Cl2 (3yo 0-105) 7f ITV4
No previous runnings
Trainer Roger Varian has a 24% record with his 3 year-olds at the track
Trainer Mark Johnston is only 4 from 52 (8%) with his 3 year-olds at the track
RACING AHEAD VERDICT: No past runnings of this race. Several interesting runners head to post though with Godolphin’s Well Of Wisdom and the Haggas entry – Surf Dancer – certainly two of those. Impressor is another to note, but the two I like here are TOMFRE (e/w) and ASCENSION. The former hails from the in-form Ralph Beckett team and she can be expected to have improved a lot from his return run at Lingfield last week. She came 7th that day but was only beaten 2 lengths and is a pound lower. She will be much sharper for that outing and should be fitter than most. The other pick – Ascension – comes from the Roger Varian yard that have a decent 24% record with their 3 year-olds at the track. This horse actually beat Tomfre last time at Newmarket back in October and manages to get in here off the same mark.
2:40 – Scurry Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 (3yo) 5f ITV4
15/15 – Returned 11/1 or shorter
13/15 – Had won over 5f before
11/15 – Placed favourites
11/15 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
11/15 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
10/15 – Had at least 2 previous runs that season
10/15 – Came from stall 7 or higher
9/15 – Had won at least 3 times before
9/15 – Irish bred
7/15 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
7/15 – Winning favourites
7/15 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or more
6/15 – Had won a Listed or Group 3 race before
5/15 – Ran at either Haydock (3) or Beverley (2) last time out
2/15 – Trained by Michael Bell
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 5/1
RACING AHEAD VERDICT: The speedsters are on show here. Sunday Sovereign is the top-rated in the field and looks the one to beat based on that and his past form when trained in Ireland. He runs for the Roger Varian yard for the first time should make his presence felt now into Listed company. Dream Shot, Keep Busy and Lazuli will be fitter than most after a recent runs last week and should be involved, while it’s interesting the Clive Cox yard run two – HAND ON MY HEART (e/w) and Orlaith – of the pair, the first-named might be worth giving another chance to with more time on her side and also getting the fillies’ allowance here. But the main call is AL RAYA, who landed a Group Three in France last time out after having a cracking 2 year-old season. She is rated 4lbs lower than Sunday Sovereign but is another that gets the fillies’ allowance of 5lbs, which brings her right in the mix.
3:15 – Claygate Handicap Cl2 (4yo+ 0-100) 1m ITV4
No previous runnings
Trainer Sir Michael Stoute has a 42% record with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Jamie Osborne has a 27% record with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Richard Hannon is only 2 from 30 with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Jockey Jason Watson has a 30% record when riding 4+ year-olds at the track
RACING AHEAD VERDICT: With a stonking 42% record with his 4+ year-olds at the track then it’s hard to get away from his runner – SOLID STONE. His form was a bit hit and miss during last season but still had some solid form to his name. He’s also been gelded since his last run and that might just be enough to see him progress now. William Buick takes the ride. The Gill Brothers looks likely to be the selections main threat in the betting and looks a progressive sort that is sure to be popular. Muraad and Elegant Light are others to note, while Exec Chef will be fitter than most after a fair fourth last week at HQ. But the other interesting one in the race at a bigger price is the Jamie Osborne runner LYNDON B (e/w). This 4 year-old is the only CD winner in the field and despite having patchy form, the yard have a very good record with their runners at the track (27%, 4+ year-olds) and he is another that can be expected to have improved for a recent run at HQ last week.
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