GOOD NEWS – The 2020 ROYAL ASCOT fixture is on!! But, Ascot officials have already stated it will be done behind closed doors.
We look ahead to DAY THREE at ROYAL ASCOT and we’ve seven more top-notch races to take in, but day three has always only ever been about one race – the Ascot Gold Cup! Trainer Aidan O’Brien will be going for his 8th win in the race.
Did you know – 14 of the last 18 Ascot Gold Cup favourites finished in the top three?
Like all big race days here at RACING AHEAD we’ve got it all covered with key trends and stats, plus our free tips (to be added once final runners are out) – use these trends to narrow down the field and find the best past profiles of recent winners.
Enjoy!
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Note: Due to the current COVID-19 situation, Ascot have already stated that if their Royal Ascot Meeting gets the green light to race, it will be staged behind closed doors.
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2020 Royal Ascot Horse Racing Trends
Thursday 18th June 2020
1.15 – Golden Gates Handicap (3yo) 1m2f
RACING AHEAD VERDICT: Another newly-added race to this year’s meeting so no trends to go on. It’s worth pointing out though that from his limited 3 year-old runners here, trainer Alan King has a 67% record. With that in mind, his TRITONIC (e/w) is a good place to start. This 3 year-old will also have Oisin Murphy in the saddle and wasn’t disgraced (5th) in the Group Three Flying Zetland Stakes at HQ in his last run. He’s back into handicap company this time and with another winter to strengthen up could easily have a lot more to come as that last run also came on soft ground so the return to a quicker surface may suit. Of the rest, with Ryan Moore riding Acquitted and Frankie Dettori on Hypothetical, these are two others to respect, but with GLOBAL STORM being one of just a few proven distance winners in the field, this Godolphin runner in the other pick. This 3 year-old returned a few weeks ago to win well at Newmarket and should be fitter than most as a result. A 5lb rise makes like harder but he’s still lightly-raced (5 runs) and should have more to come.
1.50 – Wolferton Rated Stakes (Listed Race) (CLASS 1) (4yo+ 0-110) 1m2f
Wolferton Rated Stakes Recent Winners
2019 – Addeybb (5/1) 2018 – Monarchs Glen (8/1)
2017 – Snoano (25/1)
2016 – Sir Isaac Newton (7/1)
2015 – Mahsoob (7/4 fav)
2014 – Contributer (9/1)
2013 – Forgotten Voice (12/1)
2012 – Gatewood (3/1 fav)
2011 – Beachfire (12/1)
2010 – Rainbow Peak (13/8 fav)
2009 – Perfect Stride (8/1)
2008 – Supaseus (12/1)
2007 – Championship Point (25/1)
2006 – I’m So Lucky (16/1)
2005 – Imperial Stride (25/1)
2004 – Red Fort (6/1)
2003 – In Time’s Eye (5/1)
Wolferton Rated Stakes Key Trends
14/17 – Had between 1 and 3 runs already that season
13/17 – Had won 3 or more races during their career
12/17 – Finished unplaced last time out
12/17 – Aged 4 years-old
11/17 – Had won over 1m2f or further before
11/17 – Unplaced favourites
9/17 – Had run at Ascot before
8/17 – Returned a double-figure price
7/17 – Ran at either York (4) or Goodwood (3) last time out
4/17 – Trained by John Gosden (4 of last 9)
2/17 – Trained at Kremlin House Stables (Roger Varian/M Jarvis)
2/17 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/17 – Winning favourites
10 of the last 14 winners returned 7/1 or bigger
RACING AHEAD VERDICT: The Andrew Balding runner – Fox Tal – ran a cracker to be 4th in the Champions Stakes here back in October and on that form would probably be the one to beat. However, the Sir Michael Stoute yard often do well in this race and their Regal Reality, despite being only 8th in that Champions Stakes, can be expected to run better this time with the soft ground not being ideal that day. It was also good to see last year’s Epsom Derby favourite – Sir Dragonet – run well to be second at Naas last time out. He’s a talented horse, but clearly has his quirks and the fact he’s now 4 runs without a win would be a concern. So, it might be worth taking a chance on the two John Gosden runners here as the yard have landed 4 of the last 9 runnings of this race too. Frankie rides CROSSED BATON (e/w), who was last seen winning a Listed event at Lingfield in November. He’ll need more here, but might just have more to come as a late maturing type. They also run DUBAI WARRIOR (e/w). This 4 year-old has done the bulk of his running on the AW, but was a nice winner of the Winter Derby at Lingfield in February and has now won his last three. Yes, the return to the turf holds a few question marks, but he’s only had one run on it in the past so is worth another crack on it. He also returns from 117 days off, but has won twice off breaks so that’s not a concern.
2.25 – Jersey Stakes (Group 3) (CLASS 1) (3yo) 7f
Recent Jersey Stakes Winners
2019 – Space Traveller (25/1)
2018 – Expert Eye (8/1)
2017 – Le Brivido (2/1 fav)
2016 – Ribchester (7/1)
2015 – Dutch Connection (14/1)
2014 – Mustajeeb (9/2 jfav)
2013 – Gale Force Ten (9/2 fav)
2012 – Ishvana (20/1)
2011 – Strong Suit (11/1)
2010 – Rainfall (8/1)
2009 – Ouqba (12/1)
2008 – Aqlaam (13/2)
2007 – Tariq (15/2)
2006 – Jeremy (9/2)
2005 – Proclamation (7/1)
2004 – Kheleyf (6/1)
2003 – Membership (20/1)
2002 – Just James (20/1)
Jersey Stakes Trends
17/18 – Had at least 1 run already that season
14/18 – Had 4 or more career runs
11/18 – Had won over 7f before
10/18 – Had won a Listed or better class race before
9/18 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out8/18 – Unplaced favourites
8/18 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
8/18 – Horses from stall 8 placed
7/18 – Had run at Ascot before
7/18 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
4/18 – Won their previous race
3/18 – Winning favourites
2/18 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (3 wins in total)
2/18 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute (5 wins in total)
The Irish have won 3 of the last 8 runnings
The horse from stall 11 has finished 2nd in 5 of the last 12 runnings
RACING AHEAD VERDICT: Another race that Frankie and Gosden team-up – this time with the unbeaten KING LEONIDAS and it cold pay to stick with them. This 3 year-old has won both his starts at Newmarket and despite this being a step up in grade is a horse that is clearly held in decent regard. Having already had a run since racing returned (Newmarket), then he should be sharper than most and has also already won over further than this 7f trip so that proven stamina will be a plus. O’Brien and Ryan Moore team-up with Monarch Of Egypt, who also has decent form to go well, while the likes of Molatham, Lord Of The Lodge and the only course winner in the field – Final Song – also fit into that category. It’s also hard to ignore the French raider – CELESTIN – who ran well to be 4th in the French 2000 Guineas last time out and that form would make him a big player, especially with the drop back to 7f looking a big plus. Of the rest, for some reason the horse from stall 8 has done well in this race in recent years – being placed in 8 of the last 18 runnings – so VENTURA LIGHTNING (e/w) – might be worth a small e/w interest based on that too.
3.00 – Chesham Stakes (Listed Race) (CLASS 1) (2yo) 7f
Chesham Stakes Recent Winners
2019 – Pinatubo (3/1)
2018 – Arthur Kitt (13/2)
2017 – September (11/8 fav)
2016 – Churchill (8/11 fav)
2015 – Suits You (14/1)
2014 – Richard Pankhurst (10/1)
2013 – Berkshire (16/1)
2012 – Tha’ir (9/2)
2011 – Maybe (5/2 fav)
2010 – Zaidan (7/1)
2009 – Big Audio (22/1)
2008 – Free Agent (7/2 jfav)
2007 – Maze (11/2)
2006 – Champlain (7/2)
2005 – Championship Point (4/1)
2004 – Whazzat (7/1)
2003 – Pearl Of Love (11/10 fav)
Chesham Stakes Key Trends
17/17 – Had no more than 2 previous career runs
16/17 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
15/17 – Ran over 6f last time out (10 won)
14/17 – Had just 1 previous career run
14/17 – Were foaled in March or earlier
12/17 – Won their previous race
12/17 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
5/17 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
3/17 – Irish trained-winners (Aiden O’Brien)
2/17 – Trained by Mark Johnston
2/17 – Trained by Richard Hannon
Ryan Moore has ridden the winners in 2011, 2016 and 2017
13 of the last 14 winners came between stalls 1-8
7 of the last 14 winners came from stalls 1 (3) or 7 (4)
11 of the last 14 winners returned 10/1 or shorter
Trainer Paul Cole has won the race 4 times before
RACING AHEAD VERDICT: Godolphin’s Modern News won well on debut at HQ and has to enter the mix, while having won this race in recent years then trainers Hannon, O’Brien and Johnston runners have to be respected too. Hannon has Clarendon Cross and Concessions – Johnston has March Law and Golden Flame, while O’Brien runs Battleground, who can be expected to have improved for his debut fifth at Naas. Bright Devil is another to note, having won well on debut at HQ over 6f, but this will be harder and has an extra furlong to last out this time too. But I feel it might be worth taking a chance on the other Johnston runner – MARCH LAW (e/w). These 2 year-olds can learn a lot from their first runs and the fact he’s pitching him into this Listed race suggests they think he’s better than that first run. Yes, he had Clarendon Cross and Golden Flame ahead of him that day, but he took a bit of a hold that day and hopefully that experience has taught him to settle better. The other of interest is the Charlie Fellowes runner – FIRST PROPHET, who won at Newbury last Friday. It’s a quick turnaround but he’s clearly a useful sort and had some promising looking horses in behind that day. I think it’s significant that jockey James Doyle remains in the saddle and you feel if he was trained by one of the big-gun yard he’d be half the price based on that debut effort.
3.35 – Gold Cup (Group 1) (CLASS 1) (4yo+) 2m4f
Recent Ascot Gold Cup Winners
2019 – Stradivarius (Evs fav)
2018 – Stradivarius (7/4 jfav)
2017 – Big Orange (5/1)
2016 – Order Of St George (10/11 fav)
2015 – Trip To Paris (12/1)
2014 – Leading Light (10/11 fav)
2013 – Estimate (7/2 fav)
2012 – Colour Vision (6/1) 2011 – Fame And Glory (11/8 fav)
2010 – Rite of Passage (20/1)
2009 – Yeats (6/4 fav)
2008 – Yeats (11/8 fav)
2007 – Yeats (8/13 fav)
2006 – Yeats (7/1)
2005 – Westerner (7/4 fav)
2004 – Papineau (5/1)
2003 – Mr Dinos (3/1)
2002 – Royal Rebel (16/1)
Key Ascot Gold Cup Trends
16/18 – Had no more than 2 previous runs that season
15/18 – Had won over at least 2 miles on the flat before
15/18 – Had between 1-2 previous runs that season14/18 – Favourites that were placed
13/18 – Won their last race
12/18 – Previous Group 1 winners
10/18 – Aged 5 or older
10/18 – Won by the favourite
7/18 – Won by trainer Aidan O’Brien
5/18 – Ran at Sandown last time out (Henry II Stakes)
12 of the last 14 winners returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
9 of the last 14 winners returned 7/2 or shorter in the betting
7 of the last 14 winners came from stalls 1-5 (inc)
Godolphin won the race in 1996, 1998, 2004 & 2012
Aidan O’Brien has trained the winner in 2016, 2014, 2011, 2009, 2008, 2007, 2006
Since 1949 there have been 14 multiple winners of the race
RACING AHEAD VERDICT: Nayef Road did well to win on his return to the track a few weeks ago in the Sagaro Stakes, he had Prince Of Arran back in third that day and another bold bid looks on the cards. However, this step up in grade is a different ball game and really it’s hard to see beyond the first three in the market – Technician, Cross Counter and the two-time winner of this race – STRADIVARIUS. All three are rated well-clear of the others in the race, but in what doesn’t look the strongest renewal it would be a big shock if the popular STRADIVARIUS isn’t further cementing his name in the Ascot Gold Cup record books by winning this for a third time. Running him a few weeks ago in the Coronation Cup was a good move as it would have blown away the cobwebs and over a trip that would have been plenty sharp enough (1m4f), he did well to run on for third. We know he stays this trip well and with Frankie in the saddle there is everything to like for him to grab win number three in this race. Cross Counter can follow the champ home.
4.10 – Britannia Stakes (Heritage Handicap) (Colts & Geldings) (CLASS 2) (3yo 0-105) 1m
Britannia Stakes Recent Winners
2019 – Biometric (28/1)
2018 – Ostillo (10/1)
2017 – Bless Him (25/1)
2016 – Defrocked (13/2)
2015 – War Envoy (10/1)
2014 – Born In China (14/1)
2013 – Beauty Flame (20/1)
2012 – Fast Or Free (6/1 fav)
2011 – Sagramor (8/1)
2010 – Ransom Note (9/1)
2009 – Fareer (20/1)
2008 – Fifteen Love (28/1)
2007 – Eddie Jock (33/1)
2006 – Sir Gerard (9/2 fav)
2005 – Mostashaar (10/3 fav)
2004 – Mandobi (8/1)
2003 – New Seeker (16/1)
Britannia Stakes Key Trends
15/17 – Had no more than 3 previous runs that season
14/17 – Had won a race over 7f or 1m before
13/17 – Failed to win their previous race
13/17 – Placed last time out
13/17 – Carried 8-13 or less
12/17 – Had never run at Ascot before
11/17 – Returned a double-figure price
10/17 – Unplaced favourites
8/17 – Had exactly 2 previous runs that season
7/17 – Had only won over 7f previously
4/17 – Ridden by Jamie Spencer
3/17 – Ran at Haydock last time out
3/17 – Winning favourites
2/17 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
Just one top three finish horse from stall 1 in the last 14 runnings
10 of the last 14 winners came from a double-figure stall
RACING AHEAD VERDICT: 24 runners here, but the first thing to note is that in recent years horses from a double-figure draw have done the best – winning 10 of the last 14. Also horses from stall 1 have struggled – with only one top-three finish in the last 14 years. That isn’t great news for the Hughie Morrison runner – Starcat. With 13 of the last 17 winners carrying 8-13 or less in weight then this is better news for the well-fancied pair – Enemy (8-11) and Finest Sound (8-9). Frankie teams-up with his old employers Godolphin to ride the John Gosden runner – Verboten – and draw 18 looks ideal for him. He should be a lot fitter for a recent fourth at Lingfield and has to enter the mix. Dubai Mirage, Johan and Path Of Thunder are others to consider, but I’m going to play KHALOOSY, DANCE FEVER and GREAT AMBASSADOR here. Khaloosy has a good draw in 19 and ended last season with an easy win at Wolverhampton (4 ½ lengths). Yes, this is harder, but he looks a progressive sort that can do better at a 3 year-old- Jim Crowley rides. Dance Fever is unbeaten (3-from-3) and despite not having the best of draws (8) might just have enough to tack over. While Great Ambassador has been gelded since his last run and with 5 starts will be one of the more experienced in the field. The Beckett yard are going great guns since the return of racing too and draw 20 looks ideal.
4.40 – Sandringham Handicap (Listed Race) 1m
Sandringham Handicap Recent Winners
2019 – Thanks Be (33/1)
2018 – Agrotera (11/2 fav)
2017 – Con Te Partiro (20/1)
2016 – Persuasive (11/4 fav)
2015 – Osaila (13/2)
2014 – Muteela (9/2 fav)
2013 – Annecdote (11/1)
2012 – Duntle (4/1 fav)
2011 – Rhythm Of Light (8/1)
2010 – Timepiece (5/1)
2009 – Moneycantbuymelove (9/2 fav)
2008 – Festivale (10/1)
2007 – Barshiba (16/1)
2006 – Red Evie (5/1 co-fav)
2005 – Beautyandthebeast (9/2)
2004 – Celtic Heroine (11/1)
2003 – Hold To Ransom (11/1)
2002 – Tashawak (12/1)
Sandringham Handicap Trends
16/18 – Had between 2 and 4 previous runs that season
15/18 – Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
14/18 – Had never run at Ascot before
13/18 – Had won over at least 7f before
12/18 – Favourites that finished in the top 4
12/18 – Placed in their previous race
11/18 – Carried 8-11 or more
8/18 – Won their last race
8/18 – Returned a double-figure price
7/18 – Had exactly 3 runs already that season
6/18 – Winning favourites (1 co)
4/18 – Ridden by Jamie Spencer
3/18 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori (7 winners in all)
RACING AHEAD VERDICT: Frankie, who has ridden 7 winners in this race, not riding the well-fancied John Gosden-trained African Dream might look a bit odd, but jockey Kieran O’Neill has ridden this horse in all three of her previous starts – including a close second last week at Newbury to a fair sort. However, despite a very light weight, I’m not sure she rates that much value in the betting. Frankie rides the Godolphin entry – Dubai Love – who is sure to attract support at a nice price. Declared Interest was a nice winner at Chelmsford on his return and is one of the only proven distance winners in the field so has to command respect. I expect Huboor to have improved for his return run too, but the call here is SOFFIKA, for the Sir Michael Stoute yard and at a bigger price WEJDAN (e/w), for trainer William Haggas. The former ended last year with a fine second in a Group Three at HQ over 7f and now dropped in class and upped in trip looks the sort to progress – Ryan Moore is the icing on the cake. Wejdan is into a handicap for the first time but is another that had been running at Group level last time out and clearly ran a bit flat last time out to warrant giving her another chance. A break and the step up to a mile should suit and prior to that last outing wasn’t beaten far in the G2 Lowther Stakes at York last August.
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