It’s the calm before the storm this coming Saturday with the Cheltenham Festival looming on the horizon. However, still plenty to get stuck into with the ITV cameras to take in four races at Sandown Park that include the competitive Imperial Cup – a race the sponsors (Paddy Power) put up an additional bonus of £100k should the winner go onto land any race the 2019 Cheltenham Festival – the last horse to do the double was Gaspara in 2007.
**NOTE** Saturday‘s Sandown Imperial Cup Card Has Been Called Off Due To A Waterlogged Track
We’ve also two LIVE ITV races on the AW to take in from Wolverhampton, including the Lincoln Handicap Trial – yes, all the racing talk might be about Cheltenham at the moment, but the start of the flat turf season is also not far away!
So, as always, we’ve got it all covered here at RACING AHEAD we’ve all the key trends, plus our verdict, on each of the LIVE ITV races – we’re confident these trends will point you in the direction of a few winners, or at least help narrow down some of the field to highlight the horses that fit the best profile of past winners – So, let’s get GOING!
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Sandown Horse Racing Trends (Abandoned)
1.20 – Paddy Power 3 Sleeps To Cheltenham Juvenile Handicap Hurdle Cl3 (4yo 0-125) 2m ITV4
7 previous runnings
7/7 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
6/7 – Had won over 2m hurdles before
6/7 – Won no more than twice over hurdles
6/7 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
6/7 – Favourites placed in the top three
6/7 – Returned 7/2 or shorter in the betting
6/7 – Carried between 11-8 and 11-10 in weight
5/7 – Finished 3rd or 4th last time out
4/7 – Rated 118 or 119
2/7 – Favourites
2/7 – Won last time out
1.55 – European Breeders´ Fund Paddy Power “National Hunt” Novices´ Handicap Hurdle Final (Grade 3) Cl1 2m3f173y ITV4
17/17 – Had won no more than twice over hurdles before
16/17 – Aged 6 or younger
16/17 – Carried 10-11 or more
14/17 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
14/17 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
13/17 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
13/17 – Rated 129 or less
13/17 – Unplaced favourites
12/17 – Returned 9/1 or less in the betting
11/17 – Irish bred
10/17 – Aged 6 years-old
9/17 – Had won over this trip before
6/17 – Won last time out
2/17 – Won by trainer Nicky Henderson
2/17 – Won by trainer Paul Nicholls
2/17 – Won by the Pipe yard
1/17 – Winning favourites
1/17 – Winners that went onto run at Cheltenham (3rd Martin Pipe)
2.30 – Paddy Power Imperial Cup Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) Cl1 2m110y ITV4
16/17 – Had won no more than twice over hurdles before
16/17 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
15/17 – Had won between 1-2 times over hurdles before
15/17 – Carried 10-13 or less
14/17 – Rated 124 or higher
13/17 – Aged 6 or younger
12/17 – Carried 10-7 or less
10/17 – Winners that went onto run at the Cheltenham Festival (1 winner, Gaspara – Fred Winter)
11/17 – Had won over at least 2m1f (hurdles) before
10/17 – Finished in the top two last time out
9/17 – Winning distance – 3 ½ lengths or more
8/17 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
8/17 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
6/17 – Raced at either Cheltenham (2), Sandown (2) or Ascot (2) last time out
6/17 – Won last time out
6/17 – French bred
5/17 – Winning favourites
5/17 – Had raced at Sandown (hurdles) before – 2 had won there before
5/17 – Won by the Pipe stable (have won it 9 times in all)
2/17 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies (2 of last 4)
1/17 – Won by an Irish-trained horse
Malaya (1st 7/1) won the race in 2019
The average winning SP in the last 17 years is 11/1
3.05 – EBF Stallions/TBA Mares´ Standard Open National Hunt Flat Race (Listed) Cl1 2m110y ITV4
16/16 – Had won at least one NH Flat race before
15/16 – 1ST or 2ND last time out
14/16 – Returned 17/2 or shorter in the betting
12/16– Won last time out
11/16 – Had won just once before (NH Flat race)
9/16 – Had raced within the last 8 weeks
9/16 – Aged 5 years-old
1/16 – Winning favourites
10 of the last 13 winners were aged 5 or 6 years-old
Wolverhampton Horse Racing Trends
1.35 – Bombardier Golden Beer Lincoln Trial Handicap Cl2 1m141y ITV4
16/17 – Aged 6 or younger
15/17 – Won over a mile (or further) before
14/17 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
14/17– Won at least three times before
14/17 – Priced 9/1 or shorter in the betting
10/17 – Placed favourites
9/17 – Ran at Lingfield last time out
9/17 – Came from stall 8 or higher
9/17 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
7/17 – Aged 5 years-old
7/17 – Had won at Wolverhampton before
5/17 – Won last time out
5/17 – Winning favourites
2/17 – Trained by the Richard Hannon yard
2/17 – Ridden by Jamie Spencer
Zwayyan (7/1) won the race 12 months ago
RACING AHEAD VERDICT: A competitive renewal, but the well-drawn RED BOND (e/w) could be the answer. This 4 year-old was a nice winner over course and distance last January but has returned this year with two more solid runs. He was a close third to Kaser here in December but took a big step forward on that with an easy 8 ½ length win at Newcastle last time. He’s up 13lbs for that and into this better race but looks a fast-improving miler and should make his presence felt. Via Serendipity (105) and Another Touch (104) are the top-rated runners in the field and can go well, while with 16 of the last 17 winners aged 6 or younger then the likes of Arcanada, Nonios, Another Touch and Goring would all seemingly be too old. Of the rest, the Hannon runner – Fox Power – is probably the one to beat. This course winner was second to Via Serendipity here last month, but is 3lbs better off this time so there shouldn’t be a lot between them.
2.45 – Bombardier British Hopped Amber Beer Lady Wulfruna Stakes (AW Championship Fast-Track Qualifier) (Listed Race) Cl1 7f32y ITV4
12/13 – Had won over 7f before
11/13 – Had won at least 4 times before
10/13 – Placed favourites
10/13 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
10/13 – Rated 104 or higher
9/13 – Had raced within the last 3 weeks
7/13 – Raced at Lingfield last time out
7/13 – Drawn in stall 7 or higher
7/13 – Unplaced last time out
6/13 – Aged 6 or 7 years-old
6/13 – Had won at Wolverhampton before
4/13 – Winning favourite
2/13 – Trained by Marco Botti
Above The Rest (18/1) won the race in 2019
RACING AHEAD VERDICT: Several have lading chances here – including course winners Gulliver and Documenting, while the Mark Johnston team are mob-handed here with three runners – Cardsharp, Marie’s Diamond and Blown By Win – all three are respected. But the call here is for URBAN ICON to go well for the Richard Hannon yard. Ryan Moore has been booked to ride, so that’s the first plus. He’s not been out since running third in a Listed race on the turf at HQ back in July, but has handled quick ground on the turf so this first try on the AW looks sure to suit. Draw 1 and the fact he’s gone well fresh in the past are others plusses.
