This Saturday’s Unibet Tolworth Novices’ Hurdle and is staged at Sandown Park racecourse and is often a good guide ahead of the Cheltenham Festival in March.
In recent years the contest has been a good race for the favourite with 8 of the last 13 market leaders being placed, with five being successful, while winners often go onto contest a race at that season’s Cheltenham Festival – with Noland (2006) and the 2018 winner – Summerville Boy – going onto win the Supreme Novices Hurdle, while the 2016 winner, Yorkhill, went onto land the Neptune Investment Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival later that season.
12 months ago we saw the Colin Tizzard yard win the race for the third time in four years when their Fiddlerontheroof won for jockey Robbie Power.
Here at RACING AHEAD we give you all the key stats ahead of the 2021 renewal, this year staged on Saturday January 2nd.
Recent Tolworth Hurdle Winners
2020 – FIDDLERONTHEROOF (5/4 fav)
2019 – ELIXIR DU NUTZ (3/1)
2018 – SUMMERVILLE BOY (8/1)
2017 – FINIAN’S OSCAR (11/10 fav)
2016 – YORKHILL (4/9 fav)
2015 – L’AMI SERGE (4/9 fav)
2014 – ROYAL BOY (9/1)
2013 – MELODIC RENDEZVOUS (7/2)
2012 – CAPTAIN CONAN (9/1)
2011 – MINELLA CLASS (6/4 fav)
2010 – No Race
2009 – No Race
2008 – BREEDSBREEZE (6/4 fav)
2007 – SILVERBURN (5/1)
2006 – NOLAND (6/4 fav)
2005 – MARCEL (3/1)
2004 – LINGO (5/4 fav)
2003 – THISTHATANDOTHER (11/4)
2002 – MIROS (7/2)
Tolworth Hurdle Betting Trends
15/16 – Won over at least 2m (hurdles) before
15/16 – Placed 1st or 2nd in their last race
15/16 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
14/16 – Priced 5/1 or shorter
14/16 – Won by a horse aged either 5 or 6 years-old
13/16 – Won between 1-2 times over hurdles previously
13/16 – Came from the top three in the market
12/16 – Won last time out
11/16 – Placed favourites
10/16 – Winners that went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
10/16 – Won by an Irish bred horse
8/16 – Won by a horse aged 5 years-old
8/16 – Winning Favourites
5/16 – Ran at either Sandown (3) or Newbury (2) last time out
4/16 – Won by the Paul Nicholls stable
3/16 – Won by the Nicky Henderson stable
3/16 – Won by the Colin Tizzard yard (3 of the last 4)
3/16 – Ran at Sandown before
2/16 – Won by the Jonjo O’Neill stable
2/16 – Won the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle later that season (Summerville Boy, 2018 & Noland, 2006)
1/16 – Won the Neptune Investment Hurdle later that season (Yorkhill 2016)
5 or 6 years-old have won 22 of the last 28 runnings
Since 1988 ALL winners have been aged 7 or younger
The average winning SP in the last 17 runnings is 3/1
RACING AHEAD VERDICT: Some very exciting young hurdlers on show here, including the Harry Fry-trained METIER, who has won both starts over hurdles since joining the yard from Ireland. He has some fair flat form to his name over in Ireland and seems to have hit the ground running over the sticks, winning easily on both starts. The interesting thing is that he’s also won over 2m2f so that proven stamina, in what is likely to be testing conditions, will be a big plus. He’s acted well in this sort of ground too and Sean Bowen riding again is the icing on the cake. The dangers can come from the Scudamore-trained Do Your Job, who has won two of his last three and wasn’t disgraced in second last time out, while the Jane Williams runner – Galice Macalo – ran the useful Benson close here last time out and gets a handy 7lbs mare allowance. Finally, Adrimel is also set to be a big player on what we’ve seen of late. He’s a proven CD winner here at the track and will have Richard Johnson riding. He was down the field in the Cheltenham Bumper back in March but after a wind op is now 2-from-2 over hurdles. But he’s rated 10lbs inferior to the selection and I’m hoping those ratings hold up to be true.
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