It’s the last Saturday action before Christmas Day, but with a bumper day ahead on Boxing Day (we’ll be covering that too) then there’s plenty to look forward to over the festive period.
We’ve decent cards at Ascot and Haydock first this Saturday to take in, with six races spread across the two venues. The Long Walk Hurdle at Ascot is their feature race. While at Haydock the Tommy Whittle Chase is always a decent spectacle that might give us a few clues ahead of the Grand National – did you know ALL of the last 12 Tommy Whittle Chase winners failed to win their last race?
So, as always, we’ve got it all covered here at RACING AHEAD with all the key trends, plus our verdict, on each of the LIVE ITV races – we’re confident these trends will point you in the direction of a few winners, or at least help narrow down some of the field to highlight the horses that fit the best profile of past winners – So, let’s get going!
Ascot Horse Racing Trends (ATR/ITV)
1.50 – Plymouth Gin Handicap Chase Cl2 2m3f ITV4
Only 4 previous runnings
Trainers Paul Nicholls, Ian Williams, Robert Walford and Harry Fry were past winners
No winning favourite in 4 runnings
3 of the last 4 winners carried 10-10 or more
All winners returned between 6/1 and 10/1
All winners aged between 4-7 years-old
Mr Medic won the race in 2017
Trainer Paul Nicholls won this race back in 2015 so his My Way is worth considering off a low weight. However, we’ve also got the 2017 winner in the race – MR MEDIC (e/w) – and he might be worth sticking with after a fair fourth on his return run last month at Ascot. The shorter trip here will suit after running well for much of the way last time and only really getting tired in the closing stages. With that also coming off a 252 day break then can also expected to have come on for that and is only 3lbs higher than when last winning here last November. Of the rest, Espoir De Guye, Golden Whisky, Kobrouk and the consistent CHESTERFIELD are others to note if making the final line-up.
2.25 – Marsh Hurdle (Registered as The Long Walk Hurdle) (Grade 1) Cl1 3m1f ITV4
17/17 – Raced within the last 7 weeks
17/17 – Winners that went onto compete in that season’s World Hurdle (6 won, 4 runners-up)
15/17 – Placed in the top three in their last race
14/17 – Favourites placed
14/17 – Won by a horse aged 8 or younger
12/17 – French-bred horse
12/17 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or more
12/17 – Won at least 4 times over hurdles previously
12/17 – Won over at least 3m (hurdles) previously
10/17 – Raced at Newbury last time out
10/17 – Won their last race
9/17 – Favourites that won
3/17 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/17 – Trained by Nick Williams
2/17 – Ridden by jockey Barry Geraghty
2/17 – Ridden by jockey Richard Johnson
2/17 – Ridden by jockey Tom Scudamore
Paisley Park won the race in 2018
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 3/1
Note:
2009 and 2010 runnings – Newbury
2005 running – Chepstow
2004 running –Windsor
This should be fairly straight-forward for last year’s winner of this race – PAISLEY PARK – as he continues his preparation for next year’s Stayers’ Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival. He’s rated 14lbs higher than anything else in the race and returned last month with another solid win in the Long Distance Hurdle at Newbury. That would have also blown away the cobwebs after only beating Thistlecrack by a length so it will be a huge shock if he’s not making it win number seven on the spin.Tobefair, The Worlds End and L’Ami Serge can fight it out for the places.
3.00 – Dave Dawes Silver Cup Handicap Chase (Listed Race) Cl1 3m ITV4
13/14 – Ran within the last 7 weeks
9/14 – Won over at least 3m (fences) previously
9/14 – Aged either 7 or 8 years-old
8/14 – Won by a French bred horse
8/14 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
8/14 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
8/14 – Raced at Ascot previously
7/14 – Carried 10-12 or less in weight
7/14 – Favourites placed
6/14 – Won at least 5 times over fences before
5/14 – Ran at either Cheltenham (3) or Ascot (2) last time out
5/14 – Aged 7 years-old
5/14 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
3/14 – Favourites (1 joint)
2/14 – Trained by Henry Daly
2/14 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (last 2 runnings)
2/14 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty (2 of the last 5)
Regal Encore (20/1) won the race in 2016
The average winning SP in the last 8 renewals is 10/1
Note: The 2004 renewal was staged at Windsor
The Paul Nicholls-trained Black Corton is the top-rated in the race but as a result will have a lot of weight and that would be a concern in the heavy ground. However, the Nicholls camp have another good chance with GIVE ME A COPPER (e/w) running and after winning the Badger Beers Silver Trophy Chase last month looks to be finally fulfilling his potential. He’s only raced 10 times so unexposed for a 10 year-old and was a heavy ground winner in Ireland during his younger days. A 6lb rise for that latest win looks fair and with that coming off a 196-day break then can be expected to have improved for that last outing too. Of the rest, Belami Des Pictons, Mister Melody and Kildisart are others to consider if making the final line-up.
3.35 – Betfair Exchange Trophy Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) Cl1 2m ITV4
16/16 – Aged between 4-7 years-old
16/16 – Had won over at least 2m (hurdles) before
15/16 – Had won between 1-3 times over hurdles before
13/16 – Had raced within the last 2 months
11/16 – Carried 10-10 or more
9/16 – Unplaced favourites
9/16 – Officially rated between 127 and 136
9/16 – Priced 12/1 or bigger in the betting
7/16 – Won by a horse aged 5 years-old
7/16 – Won last time out
7/16 – Irish bred
5/16 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
4/16 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
3/16 – Trained by the Pipe stable
2/16 – Winning favourites
Mohaayed won the race in 2018
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 12/1
This has been a good race for the Pipe and Henderson yard in recent years – winning 7 of the last 16 between them. With that in mind, the Pipe-trained UMBRIGADO and the Henderson runner – FRENCH CRUSADER – look worth having on side. The first-named ran really well off this mark on his return to the track last month at Haydock and will be fine on this softer ground. That also came over 3m, but this drop in trip looks a good move in conditions and has shown enough pace in the past to cope with it. He’s only 5 years-old and should have more to come. French Crusader has finished in the top two in 5 of his 6 starts (2 wins) and ran well behind a decent sort on his return last month at Newbury. A 4lb rise for that is fine and the furlong shorter trip will suit. The softer ground is a bit of an unknown, but connections clearly feel he’ll cope with it. Others to note are recent Greatwood Hurdle winner – Harambe, plus past CD winners Not So Sleepy and Mohaayed, who won this race last year. While Quoi De Neuf has been well-backed all week too. It’s worth noting that Henderson does have another runner in the race though – COUNTISTER – and with Barry Geraghty riding he’ll have his supporters. He was 7th in the Greatwood Hurdle – beaten 14 lengths – so has a bit to find, but has been dropped 4lbs and a history of running well second time out in the past. The Nicholls pair – Tamaroc Du Mathan and Scaramanga are others that catch the eye.
Haydock Horse Racing Trends (Racing/ITV)
2.40 – Tommy Whittle Handicap Chase Cl2 3m ITV4
12/12 – Ran within the last 5 weeks
12/12 – Failed to win their last race
10/12 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
9/12 – Aged 7 or 8 years-old
8/12 – Had raced at Haydock previously (hurdles or fences)
8/12 – Won over at least 3m before (hurdles or fences)
8/12 – Won between 2-3 times over fences previously
7/12 – Favourites placed
6/12 – Winning distance – 2 ½ lengths or shorter
3/12 – Ridden by jockey Tom O’Brien
3/12 – French bred
3/12 – Went onto run in that season’s Aintree Grand National (all unplaced)
3/12 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
2/12 – Trained by Colin Tizzard
7 of the last 11 winners carried 11-0 or more
Daklondike won the race in 2018
We saw the Pipe-trained Daklondike win this race 12 months ago but is now 6lbs higher in the ratings. All of the last 12 winners had run in the last 5 weeks so that’s not a great stat for the likes of Yalltari, Who’s My Jockey, The Welsh Paddies and Crosspark if running. Course winner Top Wood was 4 lengths behind Militarian last time at Ascot so there shouldn’t be a lot between that pair again here – but at 12 and 9 years-old are both not getting any younger. Vintage Clouds is a past CD winner at the track but needs to bounce back from some average runs of late. So, the one I’ll take a chance on is the 6 year-old LORD DU MESNIL (e/w), who won in heavy ground at Newcastle last time out. A 5lb rise for that win looks fair but the horse still gets in here with just 10-8 in weight and that will be vital in conditions.
3.15 – Sir Charles Napier Handicap Hurdle Cl2 2m2f191y ITV
12/12 – Returned 11/1 or shorter in the betting
10/12 – Aged 7 or younger
9/12 – Didn’t win last time out
9/12 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
8/12 – Placed favourites
8/12 – Raced in the last 4 weeks
8/12 – Had won 1-3 times over hurdles before
7/12 – Ran at either Newbury (2) or Haydock (5) last time out
7/12 – Had raced at Haydock before
6/12 – Carried 10-13 or less in weight
5/12 – Finished 2nd or 3rd last time out
5/12 – Winning Favourites
4/12 – French bred
2/12 – Trained by Lucy Wadham
3 of the last 8 runnings were won by a claiming jockey
The average winning SP in the last 9 renewals is 4/1
The Fergal O’Brien yard are having a great end to the year so their Poetic Rhythm must enter the mix. But he’s a horse that’s clearly had some issues and returns from a 400+ day lay-off. He’s expected to be ready to rumble and is still only 8 years-old so has a bit of time on his side still. However, I’d prefer to stick with CHTI BALKO, who has had the benefit of a recent run, when winning by 10 lengths at Bangor last month. He’s also a proven course winner and despite being hiked up 9lbs for that last win is still looking on a fair mark off 141. Heavy ground is also fine and the horse should be raring to go again after just over a month off. Of the rest, Captain Moirette and the McCain-trained pair of Minella Trump and Fin And Game are others to note if making the final line-up.
