A MASSIVE day up at Prestbury Park as the Cheltenham December Meeting continues this Saturday, plus the ITV cameras also head to Doncaster for three races – as always we’re on-hand with all the big-race trends and stats…..
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Cheltenham Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)
1.15 – Spreadex Handicap Chase (GBB Race) Cl2 (4yo) 2m 1/2f ITV4
10/10 – Had run in the last 6 weeks
9/10 – Had run at Cheltenham before
8/10 – Returned 15/2 or shorter
8/10 – Won between 1-3 times over fences
8/10 – Irish bred
8/10 – Aged 7 or older
7/10 – Placed favourites
7/10 – Carried 10-12 or more
6/10 – Returned 5/1 or shorter
6/10 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
4/10 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
3/10 – Won last time out
2/10 – Trained by Jonjo O’Neill
2/10 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
Gino Trail won this race in 2017
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 8/1
RACING AHEAD VERDICT: Gino Trail won this race in 2017 but has 13 years-old and the fact he’s been pulled up in three of his last four races suggests age might just be catching up with him now. The Nicholls yard have a good record in the race so their Magic Saint and Capeland, who are both course winners, have to be considered, but Magic Saint does look to have his fair share of weight. Brian Ellison has a fair hand too with Forest Bihan and Nietzsche, while the consistent Ibleo is sure to have come on for his reappearance close second at Ascot. But I was impressed with the way ZANZA won last time out at Newbury and prior to that was second to the classy Allmankind at Warwick – that looks decent form now and he’s taken to go well despite a 7lb hike. The other of interest is SKY PIRATE, who ran a cracker to be 5th in the Paddy Power Gold Cup here last month. He travelled well through the race that day and might have been a lot closer had he not made some late jumping errors. The drop back in trip looks a good move and he gets in here with a featherweight of just 10-1 – Tom Scudamore rides.
1.50 – Caspian Caviar Gold Cup (Handicap Chase) (Grade 3) Cl1 2m5f ITV4
18/18 – Aged 8 or younger
16/18 – Ran within the last 5 weeks
15/18 – Had won over at least 2m4f (fences) before
14/18 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
13/18 – Went onto run at the Cheltenham Festival later that season (1 winner, Frodon – Ryanair Chase)
13/18 – Had raced at Cheltenham (fences) before (5 won)
13/18 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
13/18 – Had won between 2-4 times over fences before
12/18 – Aged 6 or 7 years-old
11/18 – Officially rated 142 or higher
11/18 – French bred
10/18 – Unplaced favourites
8/18 – Carried 10-13 or more
8/18 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
8/18 – Ran in the Paddy Power (Nov) Gold Cup last time out (1 won)
6/18 – Finished in the top 5 in the Paddy Power Gold Cup last time out
5/18 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
4/18 – Won last time out
3/18 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/18 – Trained by David Pipe
2/18 – Ridden by Sam Twiston-Davies
2/18 – Ridden by Richard Johnson (3 wins in total)
2/18 – Went to an Irish-trained horse
1/18 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 18 runnings is 9/1
RACING AHEAD VERDICT: Another decent renewal of this handicap and, as always, the Paddy Power Gold Cup, that was run here last month is often a good guide. The winner of that race was Coole Cody, so another good run from this Evan Williams runner looks on the cards, but he is 6lbs higher this time so would need to find a tad more. We’ve also for the third from that race – AL DANCER – running again and getting in here off the same mark then this Nigel Twiston-Davies grey is the shout. This 7 year-old stayed on well to take third that day and the weight pull he gets with Coole Cody swings it in his favour for me. Master Tommytucker is another seems to have got his act together – winning his last two in impressive fashion – but even though he looks a better horse in recent runs, the pick, Al Dancer, did beat him back in October, while having been a horse that’s made mistakes with his jumping in the past, it remains to be seen how it will hold up around Cheltenham and in a competitive race like this. He’s still a big player though. Midnight Shadow and Cepage are proven CD winners that command respect too and the last-named – MIDNIGHT SHADOW (e/w) – should be a lot fitter for his return run at Aintree back in October. He’s run well at the track in the past and ran well in the Marsh Novices’ Chase at the Festival (6th) last season, beaten just over 10 lengths behind Samcro which is solid form. Windsor Avenue will have it’s backers too after running the improving Imperial Aura close at Carlisle last time and with that horse winning again the form has been franked – I’m just not sure Cheltenham will be his track (first run here). Of the rest, the Paul Nicholls 5 year-old Saint Sonnet could bounce back, but does need to put a fall in the Paddy Power behind him and that would be a worry. Good Boy Bobby, another from the Twiston-Davies yard, Chatham Street Lad and Musical Slave are others that can go well.
2.25 – Albert Bartlett Novices´ Hurdle (Registered as The Bristol Novices´ Hurdle) (Grade 2) Cl1 3m ITV4
16/16 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
15/16 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
14/16 – Had won between 1-2 times over hurdles before
14/16 – Aged 6 or younger
13/16 – Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
13/16 – Winning distance 1 ¼ lengths or more
13/16 – Placed favourites
13/16 – Went on run in the Albert Bartlett (3 won) at the Cheltenham Festival
10/16 – Winning favourite (1 co, 1 joint)
10/16 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
9/16 – Returned 2/1 or shorter in the betting
9/16 – Won last time out
9/16 – Went onto finish in the top 4 in a Cheltenham Festival race that season
9/16 – Irish bred
8/16 – Had won at Cheltenham before
8/16 – Won over 3m (hurdles) before
3/16 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
2/16 – Trained by Jonjo O’Neill
9 of the last 11 winners returned 3/1 or shorter in the betting
RACING AHEAD VERDICT: Ask A Honey Bee looks the sort to go well upped in trip here to 3m, but I just feel this Fergal O’Brien runner has had a few tough races of late and they might start catching up with him. He did beat Ashtown Lad back in October though, but with that horse since improving to win his next too, then you feel the Skelton runner has learned a lot since and can reverse that form and is the only distance winner in the field. The Alan King runner – Wynn House – is another to consider after two smooth wins at Banger and Ludlow, but this looks harder. Irish raider, Make Good, should be noted in the betting, but the main call here is DANNY KIRWAN, from the Paul Nicholls yard. This 7 year-old finally got off the mark over hurdles at Ascot last time out and with that win under his belt can hopefully kick on now. Yes, the step up to 3m (from 2m4f) is a bit of an unknown, but he did it nicely last time and Nicholls clearly feels he’s worth a crack over this distance. The other of interest is the Nigel Twiston-Davies runner – TOOK THE LOT (e/w). The yard won this race 12 months ago and also in 2016 and 2014, so like to target it and they could have another leading player here. This 6 year-old will need to improve on what he’s done of late, but heads here in good order and full of confidence after two wins at Bangor. He’s another that’s stepping up in trip but that could eke out the extra improvement he probably needs to go well in this better grade.
3.00 – Unibet International Hurdle (Grade 2) Cl1 2m1f ITV4
18/18 – Raced over hurdles at Cheltenham previously
16/18 – Placed in the top 3 in their latest race
16/18 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
15/18 – Won over 2m1f+ (hurdles) previously
15/18 – Won 4 or more times over hurdles previously
14/18 – Won by a horse aged 7 years-old or younger
14/18 – Ran in the Champion Hurdle later that season (5 placed)
13/18 – Favourites placed
12/18 – Favourites that won (1 joint)
12/18 – Priced 5/2 or shorter
11/18 – Won their latest race
11/18 – Won over hurdles at Cheltenham previously
9/18 – Won by a horse aged either 4 or 5 years-old
9/18 – Rated 162 or higher
7/18 – Winning distance: 4+ lengths
6/18 – Won the Greatwood Hurdle (Cheltenham) last time out
5/18 – Won by a French-bred horse
5/18 – Won by trainer Nicky Henderson
4/18 – Ridden by jockey Richard Johnson
4/18 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
3/18 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
3/18 – Ridden by jockey Sam Twiston-Davies
3/18 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/18 – Won by an Irish-trained horse
1/18 – Won the Champion Hurdle later that season (Rooster Booster 2002)
RACING AHEAD VERDICT: A great renewal of this Grade Two! Last year’s winner – Call Me Lord – will be looking to give trainer Nicky Henderson his fourth win in as many years in the race and if he can win, he’ll become the first back-to-back winner since The New One (2013 & 2014) – Henderson also have Verdana Blue. However, Call Me Lord was firmly put in his place by SONG FOR SOMEONE at Ascot last time out (5 lengths) and I think it will be more of the same. This Tom Symonds runner travelled well that day from the front and if allowed to do the same here over this slightly shorter trip might be hard to reel in again. He’s never run at Cheltenham, but there is no reason why it won’t suit and to me he looks the value over the hot favourite Goshen. Yes, few will deny Goshen a win here after what happened to him in the Triumph Hurdle back in March (we won’t go into that!), but having run a bit flat on the level since I still think he’s got a bit to prove. On a plus, the Moore camp are saying he’s in great form so I certainly wouldn’t be putting you off his chance and he gets a handy 6lbs from the selection too! He’ll need to win this if he’s to head for the Champion Hurdle in March and with Moore saying he’s the best he’s trained then it’s hard to ignore his chance – I just feel he’s little value considering he has been a beaten favourite in his last three races. Of the rest, Ch’tibello, who was third 12 months ago, should be in the mix again but he just doesn’t win enough for me. Sceau Royal ran the current champion hurdler Epatante to around 4 lengths in the Fighting Fifth Hurdle at Newcastle last time and should have a say too. Silver Streak is another that is often in the mix in these races and was unlucky to have been carried out at Newcastle last time out, but the other pick is last year’s runner-up BALLYANDY (e/w), who rarely runs a bad race these days or at Cheltenham. He was a good second here again last month in the Greatwood Hurdle and his last three runs at the track now read 3-2-8-2. It’s a race the Twiston-Davies yard love to do well in too – winning it three times since 2013 with their classy The New One.
3.35 – Close Brothers Mares’ Handicap Hurdle Cl2 (4yo+) 2m4 1/2f ITV4
Just 5 previous runnings
All five winners returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
2/5 – Winners carried 10-11 in weight
2/5 – Winners aged 7 or 8 years-old
2/5 – Winning favourites
Trainers, Nicky Henderson, Dan Skelton, Noel Williams (2), Anthony Honeyball have won the race in the past
RACING AHEAD VERDICT: Indefatigable returns to the scene of her win in the Martin Pipe Conditional Hurdle here at the Festival and returned with a fair third at Kempton in a Listed Mares’ race – she can go well. Miah Grace and Aggy With It are others with leading claims but I was taken with the way THE WHITE MOUSE won last time out at Wincanton and I’m happy to stick with her. She showed a decent turn of foot that day to win going away by 2 lengths and that also came off the back of a 595 day break. Yes, there is a danger of the dreaded ‘bounce factor’ but she’s lightly-raced and has now won three of her five starts and looks the sort to have more to come. Nicholls hasn’t quite found the key with EGLANTINE DU SEUILL (e/w) yet but she might be foolish to totally ignore at a course she’s won at in the past, and it’s interesting she’s back out only 7 days after running down the field at Sandown. The heavy ground last week probably went against her and prior to that was only 9 lengths behind The White Mouse on his return. The drop in trip will help and is also slightly better off at the weights with that horse – she might be worth giving one more chance to!
Doncaster Horse Racing Trends (ITV4/ATR)
2.05 – bet365 December Novices´ Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 3m ITV4
10/10 – Placed 1st or 2nd last time out
9/10 – Won between 0-2 times over fences
9/10 – Had raced in the last 6 weeks
8/10 – Priced 5/2 or shorter in the betting
7/10 – French (2) or Irish (5) bred
6/10 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
6/10 – Placed favourites
5/10 – Winning favourites
5/10 – Won last time out
3/10 – Ran at Haydock last time out
3 of the last 7 runnings have been won by trainer Paul Nicholls
Note: from 2013 back the race was run at Lingfield Park
RACING AHEAD VERDICT: A tight little race with all five runners having some sort of a say. All five head here off the back of top three finishes last time out, but it’s one of the recent winners – OFALLTHEGIANTS that I’ll be siding with. This 6 year-old got off the mark over fences at Exeter last time out over this 3m trip so we know stamina won’t be an issue. It’s also interesting that jockey Robbie Power prefers to come here, rather than possibly heading to Cheltenham for the bigger meeting on the day. With just two runs over fences there should be more in the locker. House Island is the other recent winner in the field, but that came over 2m4f so getting this extra yardage would be a big question mark. The Mighty Don is the only other proven distance winner in the field so might do best of the rest, with Hurricane Harvey and Milanford, certainly no back-numbers, making up the five runners.
2.40 – Bet365 Summit Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 2) (3yo) Cl1 2m110y ITV4
10/10 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
8/10 – Carried 11-2 or more in weight
8/10 – Favourites placed in the top 3
8/10 – Had won just once before over hurdles
8/10 – Raced in the last 5 weeks
7/10 – Irish (3) or French (4) bred
6/10 – Won last time out
4/10 – Winning favourites
2/10 – Ran at Market Rasen last time out
2/10 – Trained by John Quinn
2/10 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
Peace and Co won the race in 2014 and went onto with the Triumph Hurdle
RACING AHEAD VERDICT: Cloud Thunder, Gold Desert and Mistersister are horses that look to have a future, but really this should be fought out between the Gordon Elliott-trained Glorious Zoff and the Paul Nicholls runner – MONMIRAL, who gets the nod. The main issue regarding the Elliott horse is that he was turned over at 4/11 last time out. There is a chance that race would have come a bit too soon after winning at Sligo, so the fact he’s had a break here would be a plus. But I’d prefer to stick with the Nicholls runner Monminal, who remains unbeaten. He’s another horse that’s come from France and got off the mark on his UK debut at Exeter and looks the sort to have more to come.
3.15 – bet365 Handicap Chase (4 yo+) Cl2 3m ITV4
10/11 – Had raced in the last 6 weeks
10/11 – Had won no more than 2 times over fences
9/11 – Aged 8 or younger
9/11 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
8/11 – Carried 10-10 or more in weight
8/11 – Unplaced last time out
8/11 – Irish bred
7/11 – Had won over 3m+ (fences) before
6/11 – Aged 7 years-old
6/11 – Ran at Doncaster before
2/11 – Trained by Emma Lavelle
2/11 – Winning favourites
3 of the last 6 winners were all rated 139
RACING AHEAD VERDICT: The Nicky Richards yard won this race 12 months ago and have course winners – Chidswell and Looking Well in the race this year so have to be respected. Singlefarmpayment is a horse that is certainly well-handicapped on old form but does find it hard to win races. Rocky’s Treasure is another CD winner in the race but seems to have lost his way recently – maybe the return to this track will help. Paul Nicholls’ runner Give Me A Copper returns from a wind operation and a break but has gone well fresh in the past and enters the mix. Boldmere should be better for two recent runs at Chepstow and Bangor, plus seems to like it here at Doncaster – winning here last December. Trainer Emma Lavelle has a good record in the race and her MANOFTHEMOUNTAIN (e/w) tries to uphold that record for the yard. He was a nice winner at Bangor two runs ago but does need to bounce back from a poor run at Cheltenham last time out in the decent race behind Frodon. He’s had a nice break since that run (49 days) and has been a horse in the past that’s gone well off a break, while on this flatter track he’s taken to bounce back. Of the rest, Jersey Bean will also be popular after winning at Newton Abbot and Exeter recently, but a 10lb hike for the last of those wins makes life a lot harder here and is also up in class.
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