Next month’s July Cup promises to be a cracking contest with the first clash of the generation at six furlongs. The three-year-old Lady Aurelia thrashed her elders over the minimum trip in the King’s Stand Stakes at Royal Ascot and punters only want to be with last week’s Commonwealth Cup winner Caravaggio (11/10 from 6/4 with BetVictor).
Looking back on the sectional times for the Commonwealth Cup it is possible that Harry Angel went off a shade too quickly and, at the respective prices, on an easier track I would not dismiss the Clive Cox-trained speedball who is 7/1 to gain revenge at BetVictor.
There is a terrific card at Carlisle this afternoon and at the time of writing, the ground is good although further rain was forecast in Cumbria for Tuesday. In the 6f Novice Stakes Move It Move It (2.30) looked ready for a step back up in trip when third over five furlongs here earlier in the month. The form of his 4L Newcastle third to Rajasinghe on debut was given a boost when the winner landed the Coventry Stakes last week, and he is taken to make it third time lucky for Keith Dalgleish.
In the Cumberland Plate, trainer Tim Easterby will saddle three and Mukhayyam must have every chance despite a 2lbs rise since finishing runner up in a valuable Lady amateur rider’s event at York last time. I am going to take a chance on top-weight I Am Not Here (3.00) who made an eye-catching return over an inadequate mile for Brian Ellison at Hamilton earlier in the month.
If the rain gets into the ground and the runners come stands’ side his draw in stall one is a negative, but on decent ground a low draw is an advantage and he is taken to reward each way (4 places) support. The BetVictor tissue suggests the selection will go off a double-figure price and decent apprentice Ben Robinson takes off a valuable 5lbs.
In the Carlisle Bell, do keep a close eye on the market to see if there is any confidence behind Briyouni in his first time cheek-pieces. The Kevin Ryan yard have had their problems this spring but I expect them to have a very strong second half of the flat turf season.
Preference, however, is for Worlds His Oyster (3.30) visored for the first time for John Quinn. The selection has won off this mark on the all-weather and the hope is that jockey Hart makes plenty of use of the four-year-old dropping back from ten furlongs.
In the listed fillies’ event over 7f Bletchley (4.00) can follow up her recent Leicester comeback success for Ralph Beckett. The selection finished second in the Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot twelve months ago and connections will be keen to get some black type into this lightly-raced filly.
There is significant rain forecast for Salisbury and in the valuable Bibury Cup the well-bred Here And Now (3.40) can shrug off a 7lbs rise for winning at Chester last month. The colt beat non-other than last week’s Queens Vase winner Stradivarius on the Roodeye and is bred to appreciate slower ground.
Storm Rock (4.40) has been tried over further of late but as long as the forecast rain arrives, I think he will appreciate the return to a mile on this stiff track. The horse is still an entire at the age of six and may have his own ideas on the game by now but this is his ground and Harry Bentley knows the horse well.
At Worcester A Good Skin is one of the few in the 3m Chase who has winning form on soft ground but preference is for Rebel Rebellion (2.50) who ran a cracker in the Horse & Hound at Stratford earlier in the month before her stamina gave way over that near three-and-a-half-mile trip. This drop in distance will help.
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