A wise man once told me to never back a horse after it has fallen as you never know what mark it has left on the horse pyschologically. Kalif Du Berlais suffered a nasty enough fall last time out at Carlisle and that is enough for me to oppose him at Newbury today. Whatever I found would be a good price as he completely dominates the market but the horse I’ve fallen on is IDY WOOD who looks a sound each way proposition. A tidy novice hurdler who had form that tied in with the best of last season, he was always going to be a better chaser and he looked just that when winning cosily at Kempton on debut. The second has come out and won since which gave the form a nice boost but I’d say the selection was value for more than the winning distance that day. A slight tendency to jump left should mean he will be better off around Newbury and at 10/1 he looks a great play.
A juvenile fillies race isn’t something I would normally get involved in but I’ve had to have a bet on HOLYWELL here after watching her at Ludlow last time out. I’m always interested in the Williams’ juveniles as they have such a good record with them and this filly could be quite smart too I think. She was given a very considerate ride at Ludlow but stayed on powerfully late on to finish a close 5th but more interesting than that is that it took an age for her to be pulled up. She went as far the Club house which at Ludlow is a fair way past the finishing line and that to me suggested she should be supported next time out. She’s certainly been pitched in deep here but she might be up to it.
I’m surprised MASACCIO is as big a price as he is after he put in a commanding performance here last time out. He beat Twinjets that day who I thought had a great chance and when Masaccio made a mistake up the straight I thought that was the race over. However, the selection made the ground up and jumped well after that to end up winning going away. Alan King holds him in high regard and with his experience over this course I think he could go close here.
Newbury 12.45 – Idy Wood
Newbury 1.20 – Holywell
Newbury 1.55 – Masaccio
Saturday
The Fighting Fifth looks a race to savour this year and I’m taking the view that Sir Gino has it all to prove being a 4 year old stepping into open company. As we know, it is so difficult for 4 year olds to make their mark once they step up to the top level and I’m siding with history and the stats and saying he won’t be good enough to do it. Especially when you consider he is coming up against last year’s top novice in the shape of MYSTICAL POWER. Away from getting outstayed in the Supreme he successfully danced every dance in the Spring and in my view only a real top notcher can do that. I can’t believe he is not favourite here and safe to say I expect a big performance. If backing 13/8 second favourites isn’t your thing then have a each way punt on LUMP SUM. Given how the Welsh Champion Hurdle form worked out I struggle to believe he wouldn’t have gone close in the Greatwood so his defection from that race was and still is to ante post betting slip holders like myself a big disappointment. However, he could reimburse some of those lost bets with a big run here at 16/1. Sam Thomas says this horse is quick enough to run on the flat and he will need to be to keep tabs on the two market principles but if either misfires then I think he could be there on their coattails ready to strike.
The Gerry Fielden doesn’t look like a vintage renewal and if Jericho Du Reponet is none the worse for his horror show at Sandown he should go close to winning this. But at 9/2 he doesn’t tempt me enough to take the risk so I’m taking a chance on Ooh Betty at a big price. She impressed me last time out at Sandown when winning very cosily after receiving a fine ride from Ben Jones. That was her first run after a wind op and if that truly has taken her to the next level then she must have a great chance here off 6lb higher.
Like the Gerry Fielden, the feature race, the Coral Gold Cup is certainly not a vintage edition. It’s a small field in comparison to previous renewals and only a few of these would really be able to make their mark at this level and above. I’m going to have two punts because there is a bit of value about still and my main punt will be on SENIOR CHIEF who really impressed me at Cheltenham last time out. He travelled like the best horse and put the race to bed in the style of a nice horse. He and his stablemate pulled well clear and a 9lb hike in the weights is probably fair. With the ground riding better than everyone thought I think he has a sound chance of taking this big pot with more improvement likely. Again with the ground likely to be riding good to soft I think HENRY’S FRIEND. A strong stayer who doesn’t know when he’s beat has been tuned up for this race and should be in some serious form. A steady improver he does suit the profile needed for this race it’s just whether he has the class to be in with a chance on turning in. If he is, he won’t be out of the 3.
Newcastle 2.10 – Mystical Power / Lump Sum
Newbury 2.25 – Ooh Betty
Newbury 3.00 – Senior Chief / Henry’s Friend
