Friday
I will undoubtedly be playing for luck again today with JOHNNY RINGO at Newcastle.
Paul Mulrennan’s exaggerated hold up tactics have burnt my fingers a few times this season already and none more so than the selection last time out.
Held up off a slow pace, he only really pressed go with a furlong to go and he still powered home to be a close 4th which confirmed to me he is a winner in waiting but with Mulrennan in the saddle I’m not sure when that will be.
A smaller field today will mean he will have less traffic to overcome but there is potential the pace won’t be as strong so pay your money and take your chance today.
I will be an interested viewer in the Breeders Cup tonight and tomorrow evening but there is one race which has caught my attention tonight.
It’s the Juvenile fillies turf and although Lake Victoria rightly heads the market I don’t think old adversaries HEAVENS GATE and FIERY LUCY should be the prices they are in what is an open race away from the favourite.
The former has held the latter the two times they have met but there isn’t much between the pair and this pacey mile is likely to suit both so it could just be down to luck who comes out on top this time.
Of course they could just be playing for second but I think both are live players which their price doesn’t necessarily suggest.
Newcastle 2.30 – Johnny Ringo
Del Mar 23.05 – Heavens Gate / Fiery Lucy
Saturday
I’m not quite sure how the handicapper has arrived at 106 for an opening mark for HELL HOUND, a winner of a bumper and a novice hurdle earlier this year, but I think that leniency could be punished tomorrow in the opener at Ascot.
With Callum Prithcard taking a further 7lb off he runs off a mark of 99 here which looks like a gift to me.
The return to a more conventional track like Ascot will suit, as I am not sure Fontwell was his gig last time out, and providing Pritchard makes plenty of use of him I can’t envisage a situation where he doesn’t go close.
Tasty handicap
The 3.15 looks a tasty handicap and this time last week I was waiting for both Secret Squirrel and Fiercely Proud to make their seasonal returns but with them going against each other and at 5/1 it doesn’t make much betting sense to support them.
Looking at the market, backing JOUR D’EVASION each way looks a much more attractive play as he steps into handicap company for the first time off 112.
He was kept to novice hurdles last season but had the misfortune of bumping into one or two smart ones but as a consequence his handicap mark has been preserved.
Given how some of Henry Daly’s horses have returned off their summer break I suggest he will be ready to go but if you consider Charlie Deutsch has been booked to ride as well then I would be pretty confident to say connections have him fit and ready to go.
I was trying to see how CHIANTI CLASSICO could get beat tomorrow and I just couldn’t make a strong enough case for any of them to beat him.
Kim Bailey has played down his chance in recent days but I think he only has to be 90% fit to take this.
Good form
His form is the best in the race and I think connections have put him top weight in a handicap to see just how good he is.
If he wins this well, which I think he will, then they surely have to be working back from the Gold Cup whereas if he finishes placed then his mark is preserved for something like the Grand National.
A smart bit of training from Bailey but I think this race has fell apart a bit so connections could be dreaming of festival glory again come 3.55pm tomorrow.
Ascot 12.55 – Hell Hound
Ascot 3.15 – Jour D’Evasion
Ascot 3.45 – Chianti Classico
