The soft ground at Newmarket today shouldn’t pose many problems for EPIC POET but it could inconvenience plenty of his rivals which would leave him with a great opportunity to gain some listed success. A model of consistency all summer he finally got his head in front in a big one last time out at Haydock. Always travelling like the best horse in the race he put the race to bed in a few strides when allowed to kick on. Looking back on that race, it is impressive that he carried 9’7 around when the placed horses were all racing off much lighter weights suggesting he might just be better than a handicapper. The favourite has looked smart in two runs but the battle hardened selection will be a tough nut to crack in these conditions.
Newmarket 4.45 – Epic Poet
Saturday
It’s a good Saturday of racing at Newmarket tomorrow and I hope I can get off to a flyer with SHINING PEARL who, if handling the ground, must have a great chance of 79. It is a good fillies nursery as you would expect for the prize money but Karl Burke‘s 2 year old has some good form in the book. The fillies who have narrowly beaten her in her last few starts would be a lot better than a mark of 79 so I’m hoping the switch to handicap company will bring about her first victory.
I was slightly disappointed with ROYAL PLAYWRIGHT last time at Sandown where he had the run of the race but still couldn’t hold off Field of Gold and Matuari Bay. I think the ‘slow, slow, sprint’ nature of the race didn’t really suit him and he might just be more suited to this stiff mile here on soft ground. Connections have plenty of faith in him and have made various bullish comments which isn’t normal behaviour so I think he must be showing plenty at home. If he is in with a chance at the furlong pole I can’t see many finishing faster than him.
The Cheveley Park could be more open that it looks at first glance. Babouche has looked class in 3 starts so far but is unproven on the ground whilst the strong staying 7f filly, Lake Victoria drops back to 6f which isn’t sure to suit. If they fluff their lines then the race is wide open and at 12/1 I will take a punt on CELANDINE. Ed Walker’s filly is incredibly tough for her age and I can see her being suited by this track as she might just get away from them on the front end. If she can go into the dip with a good advantage I think she can come out of it strongly and prove hard to pass. The soft ground shouldn’t inconvenience her too much so she looks a strong each way play.
In the big one itself, I’m not convinced by some of the market leaders but have found two at a price which could at least bring back some each way returns. I’ve been following MAJESTIC for some time now and although he isn’t too far off his ceiling he is a reliable performer over course and distance and his best here might just be enough on soft ground. Jack Channon has enjoyed a fine season so far and he looks to have targeted this race for some time with the selection where a recent blowout at Yarmouth would have put him spot on for this. One that will definitely appreciate the trip and ground is THEORYOFEVERYTHING but the draw might be his biggest worry. A high draw has been a must in this in recent years so his draw in 10 might not be ideal but his form suggests the ground and trip are perfect for him which could counteract the disadvantage of the draw. I’m willing to take a punt at 20/1+.
Newmarket 1.15 – Shining Pearl
Newmarket 1.50 – Royal Playwright
Newmarket 2.25 – Celandine
Newmarket 3.40 – Majestic / Theoryofeverything
