I think it’s safe to say CANDY has been a bit of a work in progress so far this season but he looks to be putting it together now and I think he has a fair chance in an open nursery at Ayr today. The form of his second at Newbury looked strong and he proved that run was no fluke by winning a tactical affair at Newbury last time out. He should enjoy this bigger field more and a pace to aim at will certainly help him. He stays well so the stiff finish shouldn’t pose any problems to him.
Similar comments apply to KAADI who deserves to get his head in front soon. An admriable performer has danced a few dances this year both here and in France but has tended to find one or two good on a few too many occasions. The form of those races is strong and given he deserves a change of luck I think he is the bet in the 3.05.
She might be the lowest rated in the field but I think VICARIO has a great chance of going close in listed company today. Ed Walker’s charge was becoming a nearly horse over 7f earlier in the year but a step back to 6f last time saw her in a completely different light and she threatens to be just as effective over this stiff 5 and half furlong trip. Completely unexposed over sprinting distances she looked the value bet yesterday at 14/1.
Ayr 2.33 – Candy
Ayr 3.05 – Kaadi
Ayr 3.40 – Vicario
Saturday
He may be getting into the twilight of his career but there is no sign of SIR BUSKER stopping any time soon as his handicap success last time out suggested. That was a really strong performance, carrying top weight in a competitive handicap at York to victory in the manner of a Group horse and he now looks ready for the step back up to listed company tomorrow. It is an open event and there are plenty of horses which fall between a handicapper and a stakes horse here but I’m sure this lad is a Group horse as his form suggests. The track and trip should suit and allow Danny Tudhope ride a confident race and if turning up in the same form he should take some stopping.
Another Saturday, another tip for Summerghand. Just missed out on the Ayr Gold Cup he runs here in the Silver Cup which is a big step down in grade. A fast finishing 6th at the Curragh last Sunday suggests he should be more than capable of going close here where the stiff finish will play to his strengths.
I have plenty of respect for Sky Majesty here as she impressed me on debut but I’m actually putting up ROYALTY BAY who threatens to be a bit more streetwise. She also runs over what I think her optimum trip could be as she hasn’t quite done it over 7f the last twice so the drop to this stiff 6f should suit. Her form stands up to close inspection and her trainer John Quinn knows how to train a quick filly. She looks value at 8/1.
The Gold Cup itself is wide open as you would expect and it’s difficult to just plump for one but I am putting my hat on BILLYJOH having a change of luck and getting his head in front. He has improved throughout the year for the Mick Appleby stable and deserved to win at least once at Goodwood but couldn’t quite get the job done. A blowout at York is easily forgivable and a small break since should have put him back in top condition for this assignment. 11/1 looks fair considering his form and I advise a strong each way bet.
Down at Newbury I think BILLBOARD STAR has been completely forgotten about in the Mill Reef. If you look at the bare form of his last race at York then you would say he is completely out of this but if you watch it back he was actually coming with his run when he got completely shut down to the point where his jockey had no other choice but to ease him down. His earlier form puts him right in this and at 33/1 he will certainly do for me.
Ayr 1.50 – Sir Busker
Ayr 2.25 – Summerghand
Ayr 3.00 – Royalty Bay
Ayr 3.35 – Billyjoh
Newbury 3.15 – Billboard Star
