Andy Newton looks at form and trends for the Glorious Goodwood classic
We’ve a Glorious Goodwood this year that runs in both July and August, with the fiveday fixture spanning from July 30 to August 3.
As always, there’s stacks to get the racing juices flowing over the meeting – including the Group 1 races – the Goodwood Cup, Sussex Stakes and Nassau Stakes. But it’s one of the big handicaps, the Stewards’ Cup, run on the final day, that often gets plenty of attention.
The Stewards’ Cup is a race the bookies love being ultra-competitive and run over 6f attracting the best handicap sprinters around – with many coming back year-after-year for a crack at the £128k top prize.
Twelve months ago, we saw the David O’Meara yard win the race for a second time when Aberama Gold was steered home by the now Hong Kong-based Andrea Atzeni. While prior to that we’d seen a back-toback winner When Commanche Falls took the 2021 and 2022 renewals.
Let’s look at some of the main Stewards’ Cup trends.
Trip – Being run over 6f, it’s no shocker that ALL of the last 21 Stewards’ Cup winners have previously won over the trip. Therefore, unfortunately, this opening stat is not really going to knock many out.
Age – Aberama Gold won last year as a 6yo and really you need to make this age your cut-off point. This is backed up with a massive 20 of the last 21 winners aged 6 or younger, with only Lancelot Du Lac, who was 7, defying this stat in 2017.
Since 1978 there has also only been two Stewards’ Cup winners aged 7+, plus we can add more meat to this stat trend by knowing 13 of the last 21 winners were aged 4 or 5. That said, you certainly can’t discount the younger brigade – with three winning 3yos since 2015. In short, we need to focus on horses aged 3-6 here.
Recent Form – Next up is to make sure your fancy has had at least three previous career wins – supported with 20 of the last 21 winners ticking this trend (95per cent). Also respect horses that have had at least three runs that season (19 of the last 21).
For such a competitive handicap, horses that came here off a first or second placed finish have done well too (11 of the last 21, 52per cent) – the good news is, you should be able to knock a fair few out if you think this stat will carry on.
Recent Runs – In addition to looking for horses that head here in form, we should also look were they last ran. This is because 67per cent of the last 21 (14) had raced at York, Goodwood or Ascot last time out.
Favourites – The Stewards’ Cup market leader has done well too in recent times – which is slightly surprising considering is a super-competitive race with 25+ runners often heading to post. Since 2002 the race has produced six winning favourites (27per cent), including three of the last ninewith 52per cent (11) market leaders placed. The average winning SP in the last 21 years is 14/1 – with the shortest-priced winner Khaadem (4/1) in 2019 and the biggest Conquest (40/1) in 2008 over this period.
Last year’s well-backed jolly, however, Orazio, could only manage a poor 18th.
Track Form – The Goodwood course might be one of the most picturesque in the land, but it’s also one that not every horse likes. Meaning looking back at proven track form can often be a help, backed up with less than half of the last 21 winners (10) having raced at the West Sussex venue in the past.
Weight – Being a handicap, then weight carried is another trend to look for. Last year’s winner carried 8st 13lb to victory and 57per cent of the last 21 have won with 9st 1lb or less. However, a small word of caution here as with 9 of the last 12 winners carrying 9st 1lb or more, this is certainly something to take into consideration.
Especially as six of the last seven winners carried 9st 1lb or more.
Draw – With 25+ runners, then the draw has also played a big part. Yes, the bulk of the field will, of course, hail from a double-figure draw, but with a massive 79per cent of the last 21 winners backing this up, it’s still a trend to have in your corner.
Last year’s the winner (Aberama Gold) came from draw 15, while the first four home also ALL came from double-figure berths. In fact, only one of the top eight finishers came from a single-figure draw.
Stables – Despite the race being very competitive, it’s actually been won by just two trainers in the last four years and three different winning yards since 2015. These stables are David O’Meara, Michael Dods and Charles Hills – who all have two wins each in recent times.
Of the rest, William Haggas (2 wins) and Roger Charlton (3 wins) are others to respect if having any runners once we know the final declarations.
Hopefully these can help narrow down the field and if you are lucky enough to find the winner – let’s hope there’s not a Stewards’!
Good luck!
Stewards’ Cup Recent Winners
2023 – Aberama Gold (18/1)
2022 – Commanche Falls (25/1)
2021 – Commanche Falls (10/1)
2020 – Summerghand (22/1)
2019 – Khaadem (4/1 fav)
2018 – Gifted Master (20/1)
2017 – Lancelot Du Lac (25/1)
2016 – Dancing Star (9/2 fav)
2015 – Magical Memory (6/1 fav)
2014 – Intrinsic (6/1)
2013 – Rex Imperator (12/1)
2012 – Hawkeyethenoo (9/1)
2011 – Hoof It (13/2 jfav)
2010 – Evens and Odds (20/1)
2009 – Genki (14/1)
2008 – Conquest (40/1)
2007 – Zidane (6/1 fav)
2006 – Borderlescott (10/1)
2005 – Gift Horse (9/2)
2004 – Pivotal Point (7/1 cfav)
2003 – Patavellian (4/1)
2002 – Bond Boy (14/1)
Stewards’ Cup Trends
21/21 – Had won over 6f before
20/21 – Aged 6 or younger
20/21 – Had at least 3 previous career wins to their name
19/21 – Had 3 or more previous runs that season
14/21 – Raced at Ascot, York or Newmarket last time out
13/21 – Aged either 4 or 5 years-old
12/21 – Carried 9-1 or less
11/21 – Placed favourites (top 4)
11/21 – Placed 1st or 2nd last time out
10/21 – Raced at Goodwood before
6/21 – Winning favourites (1 joint, 1 co)
3/21 – Winning 3 year-olds
2/21 – Trained by Roger Charlton
2/21 – Trained by William Haggas
2/21 – Trained by Charles Hills ( 2 of the last 9)
2/21 – Trained by Michael Dods (2 of the last 3)
2/21 – Trained by David O’Meara (2 of the last 4)
– 9 of the last 12 winners carried 9st 1lbs or more.
– 15 of the last 19 winners came from a double-figure draw.
– Commanche Falls won the race in 2021 and 2022.
– Summerghand won the race in 2000.
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