1.30 – Ballyburn might not be in this race but it still isn’t short of quality as this looks the best novice race of the festival by some way in my eyes. I think there are few Grade 1 horses in here, especially going forwards into next season. I’ve argued with myself as to who I am siding with here as I am sitting on both FIREFOX and Slade Steel ante-post but I think I’m pinning my hopes on Gordon Elliott‘s inmate at the current prices. Slade Steel has been well supported since his declaration and I obviously think he is a very good horse but at 7/2 in a place his value has gone. I expect FIREFOX to drift as we edge closer to the roar and you could end up with a solid each way bet. He jumps well and travels strongly which is a big advantage in this race and I think he proved last time that he is an out and out 2 miler after appearing not to stay. Elliott has given him a break since and will undoubtedly have him spot on for this given the regard he holds him in. Solid each way play.
2.10 – The Arkle looks to revolve around Gaelic Warrior and which one of his versions of himself comes out to play. I can’t be backing him given how he ran last time out and would much rather take him on with something at a better price. FOUND A FIFTY is a battle hardened type who might just lack a little bit of ‘superstar class’ but he jumps and stays which might be good enough to take this sub standard Arkle. He was unlucky to be reeled in late the last day but should be much better suited to the way this race is run as he should be able to get a nice lead off a couple of the outsiders. If he is in touch turning in then I don’t think many will outstay him up the hill. 6/1 is a fair price.
2.50 – If the talk about Meetingofthewaters is right then we are playing for second place here but I wouldn’t be convinced by the background noise and would rather back the form. Prior to his run 10 days ago I was mad keen on MONBEG GENIUS for this race after he finished third in last year’s renewal. The form of that race couldn’t have worked out much better as both run in the Gold Cup on Friday. If he turned up in the same form I couldn’t have him beat but connections chose to go to Kelso 10 days ago where he bombed out. Clearly none the worse for that race, connections have decided to let him have a go at this on his way to the Grand National and I am just about willing to forgive him that bad run at chance him here at 14/1.
I might just have a saver on CHIANTI CLASSICO having put him up as one of my horses to follow earlier in the season. The switch to this galloping track should bring about plenty of improvement and I expect him to go close albeit at shorter odds.
3.30 – I’m not that interested in the Champion Hurdle for obvious reasons. If I can get a big price on COLONEL MUSTARD to finish in the 3 then I may have a play on that otherwise I will make myself a brew in readiness for one of my big bets of the week.
4.10 – LOVE ENVOI almost de-throned the Queen that is Honeysuckle in this race last year and immediately after that race I had her earmarked as the 2024 winner. I certainly didn’t think she would be 14/1 for this race but a light campaign over a trip too short means she comes into this race under the radar. Favourite Lossiemouth pulled well clear of her last time out but that was over 2 miles and I doubt the selection was fully tuned up. The favourite has to prove she stays this trip and based on last year’s race I think the selection will certainly make this a stamina test which will hopefully swing the race in her favour. A lot of people are speaking of Lossiemouth as if she has already won this race but in actual fact she needs to prove herself over the trip and arguably to overhaul last year’s second she will need to be as good as Honeysuckle. Are we saying she is as good as her? I don’t think so which is why in my view she is one of the flakier favourites of the week.
4.50 – Good luck finding the winner of this race. So many will have ‘x’ amount of pound in hand from the handicapper but looking at the form book you would struggle to predict which ones. I’m going to try and stick to form and put up BATMAN GIRAC who has ran well in better races this year. Connections looked to be protecting his mark with the way he was ridden the last day but he still caught the eye of many staying on into 4th. At 8/1 he looks a fair price. Of the British contingent I think LATIN VERSE could sneak a place at a big price after an improved performance last time out at Ludlow albeit in a bad race.
5.30 – I can’t really separate the front two and there isn’t much incentive to back either at 2/1. I will play for the extra places and plump for HENRY’S FRIEND who has done nothing but improve this season. He beat Kilbeg King a shade cosily last time out in my view so there could be plenty more to come over this longer trip which he is almost certain to appreciate. He might lack a little bit of class but if he jumps and stays then he shouldn’t be far away.
