Day 3
2.30 – Elite Status looks an obvious one here on what he has done so far and away from the top 3 in the market I am not sure how deep this race is. I don’t see much point in backing him at cramped odds really and I’d rather take a chance on AMERICAN RASCAL being as good as his Mum. He looks all speed and if he gets away from the favourite over this trip he might just take some stopping.
3.05 – The more I look at this race, the sweeter I am on BERTINELLI who has to shoulder top weight. He gives away plenty of weight to his rivals and faces a tough task to do so but it’s worth remembering he has been handed that mark for his exploits over 1m 2f and this extra 2f should bring about plenty of improvement I hope. The London Gold Cup always works out well and this lad won it, albeit in a bunched finish but stamina won him the day. There might be a few potential group horses off low marks here but there is every possibility that this lad is a Group horse already.
3.40 – Again I see very little point in backing Al Asifah here and it would be much wiser to find one to finish in the 3 at the prices. WARM HEART looks a little too big for me given her connections and overall profile. She beat Bluestocking last time and I can’t really see why she should reverse the form but she is shorter in the betting today. Moore has a wide draw to deal with but at 12/1 I’ll take the chance he can.
4.20 – I think the classy Broome can run a nice race here at a decent price but the younger legs of COLTRANE will be hard to keep up with. St Leger winners don’t have the best of records in this race so I am keen to overlook Eldar Eldarov and although he might not have the ‘sexy’ profile I think Coltrane is rock solid here. He stays the trip, seems to have improved again this season judging by his win in the Sagaro (a good trial for this race) and has good course form. There is plenty to like and he looks a good favourite at 10/3.
5.00 – The word ‘minefield’ comes to mind here and I won’t bother spending too much time on this one. FINN’S CHARM looks a little big to me for what he has achieved so far in his career and Joe Fanning is riding out of his skin at the moment so I can see him giving it a bold show out in front. If the weight tells I’m hoping GOOD KARMA might be there to pick up the pieces as he looks quite progressive and could have a lenient mark. James Ferguson rates him highly but he is going to need plenty of luck here as will they all.
5.35 – Canberra Legend is drifting to a tasty price this morning if you can forgive his York run. WAIPIRO looked a smart one to me early on in the season and again his Derby run is easily enough excusable. He looks to have plenty of boot so the drop in trip shouldn’t affect him too much I hope. My main hope in the race is EXOPLANET though and I hope he can show how good he is here. His run in the London Gold Cup was quite astonishing given how far back he was at one stage and the way he made up that ground again was really impressive. He probably used his gas making up that ground and ran out steam in the final 50 yards but I expect the form to work out well as stated above. Roger Varian rates him highly and I think he might just be about to burst onto the scene.
6.10 – I hope MONTASSIB gets a fair crack at this as I think he could be the one to progress further than the others. He has caught my eye a few times in his career despite being relatively lightly raced and his record in these types of races is respectable given the lack of experience. He was a well backed favourite for this last year but things didn’t quite work out, I think he has improved and I hope he shows that today.
