An interesting Mares handicap hurdle at Ayr this afternoon has caught my attention and I think EBONELLO is potentially overpriced now faced with a sounder surface. Jamie Snowden thought plenty of her last year and she returned this year in fine form too. A couple of disappointing efforts can be excused on trip and ground factors so 3 miles on good ground off a low weight should see her in a much better light.
Ayr 3.55 – Ebonello
Saturday
The 1.50 at Ayr looks a flakey enough race and I certainly wouldn’t be trusting some of those at the top of the market to carry a big weight to victory here. NED TANNER looks a potential fly in the ointment down at the bottom and he gets the each way vote at 16/1. Nick Alexander’s charge has some decent novice form in the book this season and must be better than a mark of 120 with that in mind. The step back up to 3 miles over this stiff track should bring about plenty of improvement and his victory over Latitude, who has since franked the form in no uncertain terms, will give his supporters plenty of confidence.
I was very sweet on ANNA BUNINA for the County Hurdle at Cheltenham this year but the ground went against her. She still travelled down to the last contesting the lead, something many of her rivals tomorrow wouldn’t have been able to do, and this showed the sort of mare she is. Tough, hardy yet classy she bids for consecutive Scottish Champion Hurdles here and I think she has what it takes. At 8/1 she is massively overpriced and I advise a strong each way bet.
In the big one itself I’m having two darts at the board. I would kick myself if I never put KITTY’S LIGHT up as I have been banging his drum all season. A shrewd bit of handicapping from Christian Williams early in the season was always going to bring about a profitable second half of the season and I have little doubt in my mind that the Eider and the Scottish National was always the plan. He will have to jump better than last time but is still weighted to go close.
I’ve said for a long time THREEUNDERTHRUFIVE will pop up in a big handicap one day and I think this might be his best chance for a while. I’m sure, despite what his trainer says, he prefers a sounder surface and that is something he just hasn’t had this year. If you look at his novice form he should be able to justify a lofty mark and his connections would love to win this race so he gets the nod at 20/1.
The Spring Cup at Newbury doesn’t look overly strong this year and I will be disappointed if BRUNCH isn’t troubling the judge. A satisfactory return at Doncaster would have put him spot on for this race and his preference for a slightly softer surface should see him go close despite a big weight. At the other end of the handicap I think REVICH could have his big day in the Sun after a eye catching return in the Lincoln. Stuck on the outside of the field he made up plenty of ground before fading in the final half furlong. He too likes a softer surface and should be a player at a price.
Ayr 1.50 – Ned Tanner
Ayr 2.25 – Anna Bunina
Ayr 3.00 – Kitty’s Light / Threeunderthrufive
Newbury 3.15 – Brunch / Revich
