Boxing Day we shall head out west to Arcadia just outside Los Angeles for a stacked opening day for the Santa Anita Park winter meet. The Jockey Colony out west is shaping up nothing but impressive. Joel Rosario 2021 Eclipse award for Outstanding Jockey and another little bit of trivia when he arrived in the USA in 2013 in the space of 5 weeks he won the Meydan Gold Cup and the Kentucky Derby! Anyway also on the radar – Jonny Velasquez, Juan Hernandez, leading Jockey at Delmar Flavian Pratt arriving back at the place he dominated. A couple of notable shippers – Tyler Gafflione who is probably the best Turf Rider in the States and also the arrival of the legendary Lanfranco Dettori. For this feature we are going to break down the field for The G1 Malibu Classic.
Race 10 Santa Anita G1 Malibu
End of 2021 and 9 3 year olds get one last shot of claiming a G1 to tip year off, on an intriguing side this presents an interesting handicap twist. The favourite Taiba looks the one to beat, certainly if Baffert has him primed and he’s ready for a performance like his last 2 starts. Plot twist being Taiba hasn’t sprinted since his maiden win. Let’s dig deeper.
The likely horses to take money will be Forbidden Kingdom, Messier and Taiba. Sure others will too but these likely the most.
Forbidden Kingdom, son of American Pharoah had a great start, winner of the San Felipe and the San Vincente to then taking a disappointing 6th in the Santa Anita Derby, a long break and returning first October in a G2 sprint and didn’t fire then recently an Allowance odds on and failed to fire in the lane. Both these tries since a break have been sprints. For me I’m putting a line through him as he’d need a career best in here to stand a chance.
Messier started out phenomenal breaking the maiden in Keeneland and has kept 1st and 2nd in his last 6 starts 4 being a 2 year old so you could say unexposed at 3, nailed a huge win in last years derby trail to win the Robert Lewis G3 by 15 but was subsequently beaten hard in the Santa Anita derby Taiba who won the $1m Santa Anita G1 on his 2nd Career Start.
Taiba is the one to beat in here. Interesting he’s been away and ran 5 G1’s across the country this is his first run back at home since being out on a big campaign. Last 2 races winner of the Pennsylvania Derby and finishing 3rd in the Breeders cup Classic against the best in the country including 2 of the worlds best 4 year olds. Mike Smith Keeps the ride here and Taiba has posted a big bullet workout at Santa Anita in the last week.
On the race set up Taiba will work for this, pace is expected fast, Likely Forebidden Kingdom leading a fast Pace and Messier and Apprehend pressing, in theory these setups work well on off the pace which suits Taiba but he’ll need to be up with in 5 off the lead straightening for the drive. This scenario Taiba is hard to beat.
As a last note on the set up and Closers let’s mention a live long shot. Perfect flight the Peter Miller 2nd Trainee in here, he’s ran well since breaking the Duck at a 75k claim price. He’s subsequently ran well dirt and turf. His last to starts he was 2nd in the G3 La Jill’s Stakes at Old Delmar and recently came from the back on dirt to storm the lane and take the Zia Park Derby in New Mexico. The other key stat in this handicap here is Ricardo Santana Junior retains the mount for Miller. It’s also his only ride on the card. 15/1 on the book he’s worth taking ew money.
Let’s go on Trainer/ Jockey Combo, Off the pace a proven G1 winner with a big work out in this race. Same angles on the long shot should anyone want a good punt.
Taiba 6/5 Win
Perfect Flight 15/1 each way long shot