Andy Newton, From this month’s Racing Ahead magazine, News, Racing Ahead, Tips

Boxing Day TV Trends and Tips

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A massive horse racing day on Boxing Day (, Dec 26th 2022), but the festive highlight, as racing resumes after a three-day break, is the George VI Meeting at Kempton Park.

The King George VI Chase is the feature race of the day as punters will look to get their Christmas expenses paid for – a race in recent years we’ve seen horse racing greats like Kauto Star, Long Run, Best Mate, Kicking King, One Man and, more recently, Thistlecrack, Might Bite, landing the prize.

12 months ago, trainer won his second King George when Tornado Flyer was the shock King George VI Chase winner – no runners for this year, but Nicholls has a third of the 9 entries for thr 2022 race as he looks for his 13th King George VI Chase success.

Did you know – 16 of the last 20 King George winners were aged 8 or younger?

We take a look at each race on the Kempton card, plus the Rowland Meyrick Chase from Wetherby and highlight the main trends – hopefully this will help you narrow down the fields and point you in the direction of a few festive winners.

So, as always, we’ve got it all covered here on RACING AHEAD with all the key trends, plus our verdict, on each of the LIVE ITV races – we’re confident these trends will point you in the direction of a few winners, or at least help narrow down some of the field to highlight the horses that fit the best profile of past winners – So, let’s get going!

12:10 – Play Ladbrokes ‘We Play Together’ Novices’ Hurdle Race 2m RTV

15/15 – Had raced in the last 8 weeks
14/15 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
12/15 – Favourites placed in the top 3
12/15 – Returned 7/2 or shorter in the
12/15 – Winning distance 3 lengths or more
11/15 – Had won a NH Flat race before
9/15 – Winning favourites
8/15 – Won just once over hurdles before
6/15 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (4 of the last 8)
Broomfield Burg (1/3 fav) won the race in 2021

RACING AHEAD BEST BET: RUBAUD
RACING AHEAD DANGER: RARE EDITION

12:45 – Ladbrokes Long Walk Hurdle (Grade 1) (GBB Race) Cl1 (4yo+) 3m 1/2f ITV

19/20 – Raced within the last 7 weeks
19/20 – Winners that went onto compete in that season’s Stayers’ Hurdle () (6 won, 4 runners-up)17/20 – Placed in the top three in their last race
16/20 – Favourites placed
16/20 – Won by a horse aged 8 or younger
15/20 – Won at least 4 times over hurdles previously
15/20 – Won over at least 3m (hurdles) previously
12/20 – French-bred horse
12/20 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or more
12/20 – Raced at Newbury last time out
10/20 – Won their last race10/20 – Favourites that won
3/20 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/20 – Trained by Nick Williams
2/20 – Trained by Emma Lavelle
2/20 – Ridden by jockey Tom Scudamore
Champ (4/1) won the race in 2021
Paisley Park won the race in 2018 and 2020
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 7/2
Note: This race is normally run at Ascot (meant to be staged 17th Dec) but was called off and rescheduled for Kempton

Note:
2009 and 2010 runnings – Newbury
2005 running – Chepstow
2004  running -Windsor

RACING AHEAD BEST BET: CHAMP
RACING AHEAD DANGER: PAISLEY PARK

1.20 – Ladbrokes Kauto Star Novices´ Chase (In memory of Nigel Clark) (Grade 1) Cl1 3m ITV

18/19 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
18/19 – Placed in the top two last time out
15/19 – Won last time out
15/19 – French (8) or Irish (7) bred
14/19 – Had won at least 2 times over fences in the UK
13/19 – Winning distance – 3 lengths or more
13/19 – Aged 6 or younger
11/19 – Went onto run in that season’s Brown Advisory Chase, Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
12/19 – Returned 5/2 or shorter in the betting
11/19 – Aged 6 years-old
10/19 – Placed favourites
10/19 – Had won (chase) over at least 3m before
8/19 – Raced at Newbury last time out
8/19 – Winning favourites
5/19 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/19 – Trained by David Pipe
2/19 – Ridden by Tom Scudamore
2/19 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
1/19 – French trained
1/19 – Went onto run in the (One winner – Coneygree 2015)
Bravemansgame (6/5) won the race in 2021

RACING AHEAD BEST BET: MCFABULOUS
RACING AHEAD DANGER: GELINO BELLO

1.55 – Ladbrokes Christmas Hurdle (Grade 1) Cl1 2m ITV

18/20 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
17/20 – Had won at least 4 times over hurdles before
17/20 – Placed favourites
15/20 – Returned 11/4 or shorter in the betting
14/20 – Went onto run in the (Faughan (2015), Buveur D’Air (2018), Epatante (2019) winners)
12/20 – Won last time out
11/20 – Winning favourites
11/20 – Went onto finish in the top 5 in the Champion Hurdle that season
11/20 – Had run over hurdles at Kempton before
9/20 – Ran in the Fighting Fifth Hurdle (Newcastle) last time out
8/20 – French bred
8/20 – Irish trained
8/20 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (6 of the last 10)
4/20 – Trained by Noel Meade
2/20 – Trained by Jonjo O’Neill
2/20 – Trained by Willie Mullins
Epatante won the race in 2019 and 2021

RACING AHEAD BEST BET: CONSTITUTION HILL
RACING AHEAD DANGER: EPATANTE

2.30 – Ladbrokes King George VI Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 3m ITV

18/20 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
18/20 – French (13) or Irish bred (5)
17/20 – Had won a Grade One chase before
16/20 – Finished in the top three last time out
16/20 – Placed favourites
16/20 – Had won over 3m or further (fences) before
16/20 – Aged 8 or younger
15/20 – Officially rated 168 or higher
15/20 – Returned 9/2 or shorter in the betting
12/20 – Had won a race over fences at Kempton before
11/20 – Winning favourites
11/20 – Won last time out
10/20 – Ran in the (Haydock) last time out
10/20 – Aged 6 or 7 years-old
10/20 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (12 times in all)
8/20 – Won by a previous winner of the race
3/20 – Won by an Irish-based yard (only 4 in the last 36 runnings)
Paul Nicholls, the Tizzard yard and Nicky Henderson have trained 15 of the last 16 winners between them (10 Nicholls, 2 Tizzard, 3 Henderson)
Trainer Willie Mullins has only won the race twice (2021 Tornado Flyer and 2001 Florida Pearl)
The average winning SP in the last 20 years is 6/1

RACING AHEAD BEST BET: BRAVEMANSGAME
RACING AHEAD DANGER: FRODON

3.05 – Ladbrokes Get Your £1 Free Bet Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase (Gbb Race) Cl3 (4yo+ 0-140) 2m 4 1/2f ITV

18/18 – Aged 7 or younger
17/18 – Had won between 0-1 times over fences in the UK
15/18 – Raced within the last 5 weeks
11/18 – Placed 1st or 2nd last time out
9/18 – Placed favourites (1 joint)
9/18 – Officially rated between 119 and 125
8/18 – Carried 11-5 or more
8/18 – Winning distance – 6 lengths or more
6/18 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
5/18 – Won by a French bred horse
5/18 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
4/18 – Won last time out
2/18 – Raced at Kempton last time out
Jacamar (11/1) won the race in 2021

RACING AHEAD BEST BET: SOLO
RACING AHEAD DANGER: HUDSON DE GRUGY

3.40 – Ladbrokes Fanzone ‘Your Team Game’ Handicap Hurdle Cl3 (3yo+ 0-140) 2m5f RTV

15/15 – Won no more than 3 times (UK Hurdles)
14/15 – Aged 6 or younger
13/15 – Won between 0-2 times hurdles (UK)
11/15 – Returned 8/1 or shorter
10/15 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
10/15 – Carried 11-2 or more in weight
10/15 – Ran 5 or less weeks ago
8/15 – Officially rated 120-129
8/15 – Won last time out
8/15 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
7/15 – Unplaced favourites
6/15 – French bred
3/15 – Winning favourites
3/15 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (last 2 winners)
Maries Rock (15/2) won the race in 2021

RACING AHEAD BEST BET: GREY DAWNING
RACING AHEAD DANGER: ROYAUME UNI

1.35 – William Hill Rowland Meyrick Handicap Chase (Grade 3) Cl1 3m45y ITV

13/14 – Had won 3 or less times over fences (UK)
12/14 – Aged 8 or younger
12/14 – Didn’t win last time out
12/14 – Aged 7 or 8 years-old
12/14 – Raced in the last 5 weeks
12/14 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
10/14 – Had raced at before
8/14 – Carried 11-0 or less in weight
8/14 – Had won over 3m (chase) before
9/14 – Irish bred
7/14 – Unplaced in their last race
4/14 – Raced at either Haydock (2) or Aintree (2) last time out
3/14– Winning favourites
Good Boy Bobby (4/1) won the race in 2021s
Top Ville Ben won the race in 2019

RACING AHEAD BEST BET: SHAN BLUE
RACING AHEAD DANGER: INTO OVERDRIVE

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