1.20 – Marsh Novices Chase
Envoi Allen will be hard to beat here but I’ve taken plenty of 10/1 about FUSIL RAFFLES in the without Envoi Allen market and the 16/1 outright still looks pretty fair. Nicky Henderson‘s novice is a classy sort on his day and I’m banking on him to improve quite a bit for encountering better ground. The ground should have dried out quite a lot by the time we kick off today and that should allow the selection to show his best form. He won over the course here twice already this term and impressed me greatly when he outstayed the classy Lieutenant Rocco on ground far softer than ideal last time out. He is massively overpriced in this race and shouldn’t be discounted.
1.55 – Pertemps Final Handicap Hurdle
This wouldn’t be one of the strongest renewals in recent years I don’t think and the Irish don’t have as strong a hand as they normally do. Most of my fancies have been ruled out in the build up to this race which has left me scratching my head a bit. I’m surprised Richard Johnson has jumped off Everglow who could be very well handicapped off 126 now encountering better ground. Slight preference is for the Irish raider, MILINER, who is another could be way ahead of his mark now faced with this better ground. Being by Gold Well I would expect this lightly raced sort to excel on this ground and given that he has just about snuck in at the bottom of the card I would suggest connections will be fancying their chances of continuing to add to their already brilliant week.
2.30 – Ryanair Chase
Paul Nicholls has another live chance here and REAL STEEL is definitely a horse who I think is overpriced. He travelled into the straight in the Gold Cup last year hard on the bridle and looked the winner jumping 3 out. He couldn’t quite last out the 3m 2f trip that day though and a similar performance at Kempton in the King George this year has convinced connections to try their luck over the shorter distance here. If he runs a similar race as he did in the Gold Cup last year then he must go close.
3.05 – Stayers Hurdle
This is probably my strongest day for each way punts and in this race I fancy FLOORING PORTER. Again, I think he has been overlooked in the market as his win at Christmas was more impressive than some are making out. Some think he stole the race from the front but he simply won too easy for that to be the case and the way he won a competitive handicap the time before proves to me that he is a horse well on the up. This race can cut up and there are all sorts in here to be honest. I’m not convinced with the favourite as his tendency to hit a flat spot would worry me as I think this could be a tactical race.
3.40 – Paddy Power Plate
I like a few in here such as Farclas and Caribean Boy but neither are at a price which entices me into backing them. Last year’s second HAPPY DIVA is however at a good price and although I would have rather her go to the Mares Chase on Friday she should still go well here. She lines up here off a 1lb lower mark than she raced off last year and she has a really solid course record. She jumps so well and certainly stays up the Cheltenham hill and if she can stay out of trouble I would fancy her to go close.
4.15 – Mares Novice Hurdle
This wouldn’t be a race that I will be getting seriously involved in. I like the look of ROSEYS HOLLOW who won nicely last time beating some of her rivals here today. Jonathan Sweeney is more than capable with these classy horses and his first JP horse certainly looks a useful one. She should give a bold showing despite having to give away a penalty.
4.50 – Kim Muir Challenge Cup Handicap Chase
I backed two in this race last year and I’m backing the same two this year. PLAN OF ATTACK finished fourth in this last year but lines up here off a 2lb lower mark and has seemingly had a much easier season. He had a hard race at Christmas last term but didn’t look to have endured such a hard ride when running in the same race this season. This race looks to have been the plan and I think he will go very close.
KILFILUM CROSS has finished second in this race two years on the bounce and definitely deserves to get his head in front. He loves good ground so the more the ground dries out the better for him. I do worry that he isn’t getting any younger but his shrewd connections know how to ready one and I do think he will run a good race.
