Saturday Horse Racing Free Tips and Trends: 28th Sept 2019

The ITV cameras head to Newmarket this Saturday to show four LIVE races, with the ultra-competitive Cambridgeshire Handicap their main event. Plus, they are also at Haydock to take in two handicaps – as always here at RACING AHEAD we’re on hand with all the key trends and stats……Let’s get cracking!

Did you know that ALL of the last 16 Cambridgeshire Handicap winners were aged 6 or younger?

 

Saturday 28th September 2019

 

Newmarket Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

1.50 – Juddmonte Royal Lodge Stakes (Group 2) (Colts & Geldings) Cl1 1m ITV4

17/17 – Had won one or two races before
16/17 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
16/17 – Had won over 7f or further before
16/17 – Had 2 or more previous career runs
15/17 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
14/17 – Had run within the last 6 weeks
13/17 – Either US or Irish bred
12/17 – Foaled in Feb or March
11/17 – Had only won over 7f before
9/17 – Won last time out
6/17 – Winning favourites
4/17 – Trained by John Gosden
4/17 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
2/17 – Trained by Mark Johnston
Frankie Dettori has ridden the winner 5 times
10 of the last 12 winners came from stalls 6 or lower
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 7/2

Note: From 2010 back the race was run at Ascot, except in 2005 (Newmarket)

RACING AHEAD VERDICT: A certain Frankie Dettori has a good record in this race – winning it 5 times – so his mount Sound Of Cannons can’t be overlooked and heads here off the back of a fair second behind another of the runners – Pyledriver – in a Listed race at Haydock – there shouldn’t be much between them. With 10 of the 12 winners being drawn 6 or lower then of the 8 runners this is bad news for two of the Aidan O’Brien runners – Year Of The Tiger and Iberia, who are drawn 7 and 8. The hat-trick seeking Surf Dancer has been catching the eye with his recent wins but this is a big step up in grade and is also up to 1m for the first time. It will be a shock if the Paul Cole-trained Highland Chief isn’t involved too – he ran the classy Pinatubo to 4 ½ lengths last time out at Ascot and that form looks rock solid. He won’t find anything of that calibre in here. Having said that, the Andrew Balding runner – KAMEKO – has certainly shown a decent level of form too and was only just touched-off last time out in the Group Three Solario Stakes at Sandown. That was only his second career run so should have more to come, while after running on well over that 7f trip this step up to 1m looks ideal. Oisin Murphy takes the ride.

 

2.25 – Juddmonte Cheveley Park Stakes (Group 1) (Fillies) Cl1 6f ITV4

17/17 – Finished in the top two last time out
17/17 – Had won over 6f before
15/17 – Foaled in Feb or March
15/17 – Had not run at Newmarket (Rowley) before
15/17 – Had run within the last 6 weeks
14/17 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
14/17 – Had 3 or more previous runs
12/17 – Went onto run in the 1,000 Guineas the following season (2 won it)
12/17 – Won last time out
11/17 – Placed favourites
10/17 – Winning distance – ½ length or less
9/17 – Had won exactly 2 previous races
8/17 – Horses from stall 6 that finished in the top 3
7/17 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
4/17 – Winners drawn in stall 6
2/17 – Went onto win the 1,000 Guineas the following season
2/17 – Trained by the Hannon yard
3/17 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (last 3 runnings)
2/17 – Trained by Brian Meehan
9 of the last 12 winners came from stalls 1-5 (inc)
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 5/1

RACING AHEAD VERDICT: The Cheveley Park runner – Dark Lady – will be a popular winner trying to win their own race and she’s not without a squeak either. She beat another of the runners – Millisle – by a short-head last time at Salisbury and if building on those efforts this pair enter the mix. Raffle Prize will be all the rage too as he’s the top-rated in the field and was only just beaten at this level last time out in France. He’s a two-time Group Two winner already and is proven on a wide range of different ground types. She’s a big player but with Frankie riding too may be little value. French raider – Tropbeau – has to be on the shortlist too. She’s won her last three races (all over 7f), with the last of those an easy G2 win at Deauville. She won’t mind it if more rain comes and stays further than this 6f trip. However, the two I’m going to play here are LIVING IN THE PAST and ETOILE. The former was a gutsy winner from the front of the G2 Lowther Stakes at York last month and did well that day to hold off the useful Liberty Beach. She probably wouldn’t want any more rain though so if that does come and any sort of ‘soft’ in the going description then she’d probably be a ‘no bet’. Etoile hails from the Aidan O’Brien yard that has won the last three runnings of this. She’s only been out once but that was a smooth win at Naas in a G3. Yes, more is needed but the yard would have had many options in this race so the fact they’ve chosen her to try and win the pot for a fourth year in-a-row looks significant.

 

3.00 – Juddmonte Middle Park Stakes (Group 1) (Entire Colts) Cl1 6f ITV

16/16 – Won over 6f previously
15/16 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or less
14/16 – Won their last race
14/16 – Won at least twice previously
13/16 – Had run 3 or more times previously
13/16 – Never raced at Newmarket (Rowley) previously
12/16 – Returned 8/1 or shorter
12/16 – Foaled in either Feb or March
10/16 – Favourites placed
9/16 – Won a Group 1 or 2 race before
5/16 – Ran at Deauville last time out
5/16 – Favourites that won
5/16 – Won by an Irish-based stable
4/16 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
1/16 – Winners that came from stall 1
Aidan O’Brien won the race in – 2000, 2001, 2004, 2011, 2017 & 2018

RACING AHEAD VERDICT: We’ve three unbeaten colts in this race – Mums Tipple, Siskin and Earthlight – so at least two of them are going to come out of this contest with their records tarnished. Of that trio, the Godolphin runner – Earthlight – is the top-rated and his chance will be enhanced if Raffle Prize wins the previous race as he beat that horse by a neck last time out in France. Any rain would help his cause too. Siskin has 6lbs to find with Earthlight on the ratings but he’s another with an unbeaten record after winning his last four races, including the Group One Phoenix Stakes when he had Monarch Of Egypt back in second. The runner-up reposes here and with the Aidan O’Brien yard having won this race 6 times since 2000 then he looks their best chance of adding to that tally. They also run Lope Y Fernandez and King Neptune too. Threat and Golden Horde certainly have a chance too, especially the former – Threat – who is the only proven course winner in the field and heads here off the back of two Group Two wins. But Threat’s yard – Richard Hannon – have another big fancy in the race – MUMS TIPPLE – and it was hard to not be impressed with his 11 length romp at York last time out. The time was decent too and even though it’s hard to know what he beat and that this is a big leap up in grade it was a very impressive display that can’t be ignored. With Ryan Moore riding for O’Brien (he rode Mums Tipple last time), it’s the title-chasing Oisin Murphy that takes over in the saddle.

 

3.40 – Bet365 Cambridgeshire (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 1m1f ITV

17/17 – Aged 6 or younger
16/17 – Won 3 or more times in their career
14/17 – Carried 9-5 or less
13/17 – Aged between 4 and 6 years-old
13/17 – Won from a double-figure stall
13/17 – Unplaced favourites
13/17 – Had won over 1m2f before
12/17 – Finished 5th or better last time out
11/17 – Had 5 or more runs that season
11/17 – Rated between 90-100
12/17 – Returned a double (or treble) figure price in the betting
9/17 – Carried 8-12 or less
5/17 – Ran at Newbury last time out
3/17 – Winning favourites
3/17 – Trained by John Gosden
3/17 – Won their last race
11 of the last 13 winners had run in the last 9 weeks
The average winning SP in the last 17 years is 21/1

 RACING AHEAD VERDICT: The normal big-field line-up here with 33 runners heading to post. There are plenty of key trends to take into the race though like ALL of the last 17 winners aged 6 or younger – this is a negative for Nicholas T. But with 13 of the last 17 winners aged between 4-6 years-old then this does knock out the 3 year-olds – Dark Vision, Lord North, Good Birthday, Smile A Mile, Korcho, Chance, Majestic Dawn and the well-fancied pair of Le Don De Vie & Fifth Position. Horses drawn in double-figures is another thing to note, but with 30+ runners most years then the bulk of the entries will have high draws anyway! Placed 5th or better last time out is another trend to look at, while 14 of the last 17 winners carried 9-5 or less in weight. Trainer John Gosden has a good record in the race so his Lord North, with Frankie riding will be on most people’s shortlist. However, at 3 years-old this might be a negative, plus he’s only had four career runs which might not be ideal in a race with 32 other runners in. Having raced in the last few months is another trend to have on side. So, taking most of those main stats on board the ones that stand out are – BEDOUIN’S STORY, BALTIC BARON, YOU’RE HIRED, LITTLE JO, ZZORO and ISOMER. It might be worth having a small saver on the last four-named as they are all massive prices, but of that six BALTIC BARON (e/w) and BEDOUIN’S STORY (e/w) look the more realistic. The former has draw 30 and will be ridden by the in-form Danny Tudhope for the David O’Meara yard. This 4 year-old was third (of 3) last time out at Doncaster but not beaten far but looks the sort to benefit from this extra furlong. Godolphin’s Bedouin’s Story has won 4 times (from 13 runs) on the turf but is another that should be well-suited by the extra yardage if his breeding is anything to go by. The horse acts on any ground too and draw 12 (in the middle) will give jockey Hector Crouch plenty of options.


HAYDOCK Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

 

2.05 – Download The App At Virgin Bet Handicap Cl2 (3yo+ 0-105) 1m ITV4

11/12 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
11/12 – Had won over 7f or 1m before
10/12 – Didn’t win last time out
10/12 – Had won 1 or 2 times before
9/12 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
8/12 – Drawn in stalls 8 or lower
6/12 – Unplaced favourites
7/12 – Irish bred winners
5/12 – Had raced at Haydock before
3/12 – Winning favourites
2/12 – Trained by Tom Dascombe
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 9/2

RACING AHEAD VERDICT: Course and distance winners – Mikmak, Club Wexford and Mitchum Swagger have shown in the past they’ve a liking for the track so a case can be made for them. Not winning last time out is a key trend too but 8 of the 9 runners fit the bill here – with just Gabrial The Wire, who won at Chester last time, being the only recent winner. But with the Tom Dascombe yard having won 2 of the last 7 renewals then his BARRISTAN THE BOLD gets the nod. This 3 year-old was a close third last time out at Chester but ran on well despite not getting much room that day to indicate the step up to 1m will suit – hopefully the horse can make amends here.

 

3.15 – Virgin Bet Handicap Cl2 (3yo+ 0-105) 5f ITV4

12/12 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
12/12 – Had raced in the last 4 weeks
12/12 – Had won over 5f before
11/12 – Aged 6 or younger
10/12 – Came from stalls 7-11 (inc)
9/12 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
9/12 – Carried 8-11 or more in weight
9/12 – Had won between 2-4 times before
8/12 – Favourites placed
7/12 – Rated between 92-96
7/12 – Had raced at Haydock before
7/12 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
5/12 – Winning favourites
4/12 – Ran at Doncaster last time out
2/12 – Trained by Jamie Osborne
2/12 – Trained by Richard Fahey
2/12 – Ridden by Adam Kirby
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 13/2

RACING AHEAD VERDICT: With 11 of the last 12 winners aged 6 or younger then of the 14 runners Poyle Vinnie and Stake Acclaim have this age stat as a negative. 10 of the last 12 winners also came from stalls 7-11 (inc), so if that’s to be repeated then MAKANAH, HYPERFOCUS, POYLE VINNIE, SHE CAN BOOGIE and STAKE ACCLAIM tick this trend. However, with the age stat ruling out Stake Acclaim and Poyle Vinnie then we are down to just three and if the prices allow then we might be able to have an interest in all three. She Can Boogie (drawn 10) ran well to be third here last time out and has been dropped a pound and also has Jane Elliott riding to claim 3lbs this time too. This means she’s 4lbs better off and that should see her go close, while any more rain would be a further plus. Hyperfocus comes from the in-form Tim Easterby yard that have had a lot of winners this midweek. This 5 year-old was 12th in the Silver Cup last time but lost a front shoe that day and certainly shows enough pace to warrant this drop down to 5f. The final runners – Makanah – was last seen running 7th in the Portland Handicap at Doncaster and prior to that run was a fine fourth to the improving Dakota Gold at York – a repeat of that run would see him go very close.

 

 

 

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