Glorious Goodwood Trends & Free Tips: DAY TWO (Weds 31st July 2019)

It’s panama hats, pimms, plus strawberries and cream galore with the 5-day Glorious Goodwood Meeting (Tues 30th July to Sat 3rd Aug). As always, the West Sussex track can expect monster crowds throughout the week with a whole host of top-notch contests each day for punters to get stuck into.

So we’ll be on-hand throughout the whole meeting to take you through the key trends for each day’s LIVE ITV races.

 

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2019 Glorious Goodwood Trends

DAY TWO – Wednesday 31st July 2019

1.50 – Unibet Goodwood Stakes Handicap Cl2 2m5f ITV

16/17 – Aged 7 or younger
14/17 – Had 3+ runs already that season
13/17 – Had won over at least 1m6f on the flat
10/17 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
10/17 – Had won over at least 2m on the flat
10/17 – Had run at Goodwood before
9/17 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
9/17 – Placed favourites
7/17 – Carried 9-0 or more
5/17 – Won last time out
4/17 – Ran at Royal Ascot last time out
5/17 – Winning favourites
2/17 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/17 – Ridden by Paul Hanagan
2/17 – Trained by Mark Johnston
2/17 – Trained by Ian Williams
Lil Rockerfeller (11/4 fav) won the race 12 months ago
3 of the last 8 winners came from stall 20
9 of the last 13 winners came from a double-figure stall

RACING AHEAD VERDICT: One of the longest flat races on the calendar here, so no surprise to see several National Hunt trainers with runners. The Ian Williams yard have won 2 of the last five runnings so their Zubayr and The Grand Visir will be of interest, while the consistent trio of Dubawi Fifty, True Destiny and Timoshenko are sure to be popular too. FUN MAC (e/w) often runs well in these big staying handicaps too and is starting to look well-handicapped. The Hughie Morrison yard also won this in 2016 so know what’s needed and two runs this season should have him spot-on – he’s worth an each-way play. However, the main pick is last year’s winner – LIL ROCKERFELLER. This Neil King runner bolted-up by 15 lengths 12 months ago and despite being 17lbs higher in the ratings actually only carries 5lbs more than last year; He’s the only CD winner in the field and has so far won 3 of his 5 flat outings. SDS is booked to ride and another bold bid from the front is expected. Of the rest, the all ready mentioned Timoshenko gets in with a very light weight and comes from the Prescott yard that are starting to hit form, while having targeted this race with success in recent years, the Nicky Henderson-trained The Cashel Man is another to consider.

2.25 – Unibet Handicap Cl2 1m4f ITV

15/15 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
13/15 – Placed in the top 3 in their last race
10/15 – Winning favourites
10/15 – Rated between 84-93
10/15 – Carried 8-13 or less in weight
8/15 – Won over 1m4f previously
8/15 – Came from outside the top 3 in the market
5/15 – Won their last race
4/15 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
3/15 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
3/15– Trained by Mark Johnston
2/15 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
1/15 – Winning favourites
Soto Sizzler (20/1) won the race 12 months ago
10 of the last 13 winners came from stall 10 or lower

RACING AHEAD VERDICT: A very open-looking renewal of this contest. With 10 of the last 13 winners coming from stalls 10 or lower, then the well-fancied quartet of Desert Icon, Sir Ron Priestley, Le Don De Vie and Persian Moon will all have this trend to overcome. 10 of the last 15 winners also carried 8-13 or less in weight – Severence, Desert Icon, Mind The Crack, Kosciuszko, Future Investment, Tribal Craft, Dubai Tradition and Durston fit the bill on that score. Of that bunch, and with the Mark Johnston yard having a top record in the race then their MIND THE CRACK (e/w) is worth an interest. This 3 year-old was only just run out of things last time out at Ascot (5th) but that race might have just come a bit too soon (just 7 days after his previous outing). He’s had almost 3 weeks to get over that run and should make his presence felt. Frankie rides Kosciuszko for John Gosden and with just three career runs there will be a lot more to come from this 3 year-old. Aidan O’Brien also sends one over – Eminence – who has been running consistently well all season – Ryan Moore rides. Durstan and Dubai Tradition have done little wrong in both winning their last two and can’t be ruled out either, but the way TRIBAL CRAFT won last time out at Pontefract on just his third start caught the eye. This Andrew Balding runner steps into a handicap for the first time so more is needed, but looks a fast-improving stayer in the making that gets in here with just 8-9 in weight.

3.00 – Markel Insurance Molecomb Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 5f ITV

15/17 – Had won over 5f before
13/17 – Had run within the last 4 weeks
14/17 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
13/17 – Had won between 1-2 times before
11/17 – Finished in the top 2 last time out
11/17 – Foaled in either Feb or March
12/17 – Favourites that finished in the top 4
10/17 – Winning distance – 1 lengths or less
10/17 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
8/17 – Won last time out
4/17 – Winning favourites
3/17 – Trained by Richard Hannon
2/17 – Trained by Mick Channon
2/17 – Trained by William Haggas
Horse from stall 1 has finished in the top 3 in 7 of the last 10 runnings
Rumble Inthejungle (5/1) won the race 12 months ago

RACING AHEAD VERDICT: Some promising 2 year-olds in the making here, but the betting suggests it could turn into a bit of a two-horse battle. The US raider – Maven – will be all the rage with Frankie Dettori riding for his pal Wesley Ward. He was a nice winner of a Group Three over in France last time and another ‘blast-out’ attempt from the front will be on the cards.  Air Force Jet, Hand On My Heart and Dr Simpson have shown good form so far too, but the other main player here is the John Quinn-trained LIBERTY BEACH. It was hard to not be taken by the way she won at Sandown last time – showing a top turn-of-foot- to win by just over 3 lengths. Prior to that she was a fair fourth in the Queen Mary Stakes at Royal Ascot, which was a good effort considering she took a keen hold. With the speedy Maven in the race, then things should be set-up nicely for her to come off the pace and she also gets a handy fillies’ allowance off the Ward runner (6lbs).

3.35 – Qatar Sussex Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) Cl1 1m ITV

16/18 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
16/18 – Won over 1m before
15/18 – Had won 4 or more times during their career
14/18 – Returned 9/2 or shorter in the betting
13/18 – Ran at Royal Ascot last time out
11/18 – Had 4 or more previous runs that season
11/18 – Has Won a Group One previously
10/18 – Winning favourites
9/18 – Aged 3 years-old
4/18 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
3/18 – Aged 4 years-old
3/18 – Trained by Richard Hannon
Just 1 winner from stall 1 in the last 13 runnings
9 of the last 13 winners came from stalls 3-5 (inc)

RACING AHEAD VERDICT: Only 8 runners of the day two feature – the Sussex Stakes – but it still looks a cracker. Lord Glitters won well at Royal Ascot to take the Queen Anne Stakes and a repeat of that effort would see him go close. Phoenix Of Spain was a top winner of the Irish 2000 Guineas two runs back but failed to build on that last time when going down 3 ¼ lengths to CIRCUS MAXIMUS, who goes again here too, in the St James’s Stakes at Ascot. That Aidan O’Brien runner gets the nod to follow-up too, in a race the yard has won 4 times in the last 18 years. He stays further than this 1m trip, so connections are sure to make full use of that proven stamina again here. Yes, Too Darn Hot will be a big player against him. He won well in France last time out, but that was back over 7f and he could only manage third – beaten a length – to the selection at Royal Ascot last month. So far this season, this Gosden runner has run over a mile (or further) three times and been beaten each time.

 

 

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