By Ben Morgan
Dans the man in the opener
A wide open handicap hurdle to kick off proceedings at Ascot on Saturday and it probably isn’t the easiest race to find the winner of.
I am interested in DANS LE VENT despite his advancing years as prior to his last run he had still shown plenty of enthusiasm for the game.
At the ripe old age of 12 you would think he would be regressing but based on his first three runs this season he has shaped like there are still races to be won with him.
His third at Chepstow where the ground would have been soft enough for him is strong form and a repeat of that run here would see him go close.
I’m inclined to write his last run off as he was left poorly placed and he wasn’t the only horse to be beat out of sight at Windsor that day but what that run has done is inflate his price here.
At 20/1 he rates a sound each way bet.
Hoping for Change of fortune in Grade 2 Reynoldstown
A 5 runner race which looks set to be a trappy contest. The favourite Jingko Blue could still be anything and second favourite Lowry’s Bar wasn’t that far behind him the last day.
Peaky Boy has been bought for big money for new connections and although Leave Of Absence is the rank outsider he too could improve for the step up in trip.
However, I think THE CHANGING MAN is the value bet here given his vast experience over fences.
He has been unlucky not to win a big handicap this season, finishing second three times on the bounce so no one could deny him a day in the Sun if he were to win here.
Obviously he has a bit to find on ratings but my experience of this race is that it isn’t always the ‘sexy’ type that wins the race, quite often it is the horse who jumps and stays best and I think with his experience over fences he might just make one or two of his younger rivals sweat.
Bass and Daly hoping to escape with valuable Ascot prize
Regular readers of the column will notice I have put up JOUR D’EVASION a few times this season on the basis I believe he is lurking on a good mark.
He cashed into some extent last time at Hereford as he made all in what looked a strong race for the grade.
The second took a big handicap hurdle at Newbury last weekend and the third had run well in some competitive handicaps before that so the form has some depth to it and the selection impressed me, clearing away by 4 lengths.
A 5lb rise for that certainly looks lenient in hindsight and he must have a good chance here at 14/1 although he is in slightly deeper again.
If you translate his name into English, it means Escape Day, so if there were ever a day for David Bass to steal a few lengths early on and make all I think it might be tomorrow.
Jonjo looking to book Cheltenham ticket
The Swinley Chase is a very valuable handicap which based on the last few weekends you would expect JP McManus to target.
Therefore it is no surprise to see he has HASTHING lining up here off a low weight.
Jonjo O’Neill’s progressive chaser has racked up two wins on the bounce already this season and both runs suggested he would be even better suited to stepping up in trip to 3 miles.
If you look at the horse as a physical specimen you would again suggest he is going to want a trip so I think he must be quite good to get to a mark of 133 without running over what I think could be his optimum trip.
I have plenty of respect for last year’s winner Threeunderthrufive but the selection threatens to have another 10-15lb in hand and if he does then he should be taking this on his way to the Cheltenham festival.
Tips
Ascot 1.15 – Dans Le Vent
Ascot 1.50 – The Changing Man
Ascot 2.25 – Jour D’evasion
Ascot 3.00 – Hasthing
