Another massive Saturday of NH jumping action with the ITV cameras heading to Sandown and Aintree, with the Tingle Creek Chase and Becher Chase the feature contests – As always, here at RACING AHEAD, we’ve got all the big-race trends and stats for all the LIVE races.
Sandown Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)
1.45 – Close Brothers Henry VIII Novices´ Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 2m ITV4
18/18 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
18/18 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
17/18 – Had won between 1-2 times over fences before
17/18 – Had won a UK chase race over at least 2m
16/18 – Aged 6 or younger
15/18 – French (11) or Irish (4) bred
15/18 – Won last time out
12/18 – Returned 7/2 or shorter in the betting
12/18 – Raced at either Cheltenham (6) or Warwick (6) last time out
12/18 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s Arkle Chase (3 winners)
11/18 – Winning distance – 2 ¾ lengths or more
11/18 – Placed favourites
7/18 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
6/18 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
6/18 – Winners went onto finish 1st or 2nd in that season’s Arkle Chase
3/18 – Trained by Alan King
RACING AHEAD BEST BET: JONBON
RACING AHEAD DANGER: BOOTHILL
2.20 – Betfair Daily Rewards Handicap Hurdle (Listed Race) Cl1 1m7f216y ITV4
17/18 – Won over at least 2m (hurdles) before
16/18 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
15/18 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
15/18 – Had won between 1-3 times over hurdles before
14/18 – Aged 4,5 or 6 years-old
14/18 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
13/18 – Winning distance – 1 length or more
13/18 – Carried 10-13 or less
11/18 – Rated between 116-128
11/18 – Unplaced favourites
10/18 – Irish bred
9/18 – Won last time out
4/18 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
3/18 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
11 of the last 12 winners returned 8/1 or shorter
Mack The Man (6/1) won this race in 2019
RACING AHEAD BEST BET: LOVE ENVOI
RACING AHEAD DANGER: PLAYFUL SPIRIT
2.55– Betfair Tingle Creek Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 2m ITV4
18/20 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
19/20 – Aged 9 or younger
17/20 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
17/20 – Had won a Grade One chase before
16/20 – Had won at least 4 times over fences before
15/20 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s QM Champion Chase
15/20 – Placed favourites
15/20 – French bred
15/20 – Aged between 5-8 years-old
15/20 – Officially rated 165 or higher
14/20 – Returned 5/2 or shorter in the betting
13/20 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
13/20 – Winning distance – 3 lengths or more
12/20 – Winning favourites (2 joint)
12/20 – Won last time out
12/20 – Had won a chase race at Sandown before
11/20 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (12 wins in total)
6/20 – Went onto win the Champion Chase (Altior, Dodging Bullets, Sire de Grugy, Sprinter Sacre, Master Minded & Moscow Flyer) at the Cheltenham Festival that season
1/20 – Went onto win the Gold Cup (Kauto Star) at the Cheltenham Festival that season
The average winning SP in the last 20 years is 11/4
RACING AHEAD BEST BET: GREANETEEN
RACING AHEAD DANGER: SHISKIN
3.30 – Winners Wear Cavani Menswear Exchange London National Handicap Chase Cl2 3m5f110y ITV4
15/16 – Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
15/16 – Aged 7 or older
15/16 – Had won (fences) over at least 3m before
14/16 – Won between 2-6 times over fences before
13/16 – Raced within the last 5 weeks
13/16 – Rated 126 or higher
13/16 – Aged 8 or older
11/16 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
11/16 – Irish bred
10/16 – Unplaced favourites
9/16 – Had raced over fences at Sandown before (2 won)
9/16 – Carried 11-0 or more
5/16 – Ran at either Cheltenham (3) or Towcester (2) last time out
4/16 – Won last time out
3/16 – Ridden by Richard Johnson
3/16 – Trained by Tom George
1/16 – Winning favourites
RACING AHEAD BEST BET: DEISE ABA
RACING AHEAD DANGER: QUICK WAVE
Aintree Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)
1.30 – Boylesports Many Clouds Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 (4yo+) 3m1f ITV4
10/10 – Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
9/10 – Had won over at least 3m (chase)
9/10 – Placed favourites (top 3)
9/10 – Ran at Aintree, Wetherby or Cheltenham last time out
8/10 – Didn’t win last time out
7/10 – Aged 8 or younger
7/10 – Had run at Aintree in the past
6/10 – Winning favourites
6/10 – Irish Bred
6/10 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
4/10 – Ran at Wetherby last time out
2/10 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/10 – Trained by Brian Ellison
Trainer Paul Nicholls won the race in 2013 & 2014
Trainer Nicky Henderson won the race in 2011
RACING AHEAD BEST BET: SOUNDS RUSSIAN
RACING AHEAD DANGER: CHANTRY HOUSE
2.05 – Boylesports Becher Handicap Chase (Grade 3) Cl1 3m2f ITV4
16/20 – Had won between 2-5 times over fences before
16/20 – Carried 10-12 or less
16/20 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
16/20 – Had no more than 1 start that season
15/20 – Had raced within the last 7 weeks
14/20 – Had run over these Grand National-style fences before
14/20 – Aged 9 or older
12/20 – Officially rated between 123-138
12/20 – Went onto finish unplaced in that season’s Grand National
11/20 – Irish-bred winners
11/20 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
9/20 – Placed favourites
8/20 – Ran in the previous season’s Grand National
5/20 – Winning favourites
4/20 – Won last time out
3/20 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/20 – Irish-trained winners
3/20 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
1/20 – Went onto win the Grand National later in their career
0/20 – Went onto win the Grand National that same season
The average winning SP in the last 20 years is 12/1
Trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies has won the race 6 times since 1993
Snow Leopardess (4/1) won the race in 2021
RACING AHEAD BEST BET: GESSKILLE
RACING AHEAD DANGER: FANTASTIKAS
2.40 – Boylesports Daily Money Back 2nd Handicap Chase Cl2 (4yo+ 0-145) 2m4f ITV4
8/8 – Carried 10-10 or more in weight
8/8 – Ran in the last 5 weeks
8/8 – Won over at least 2m4f (fences) before
6/8 – Carried 11-1 or more in weight
6/8 – Returned 7/1 or shorter
6/8 – Aged between 6-9 years-old
6/8 – Ran at Ayr (2), Kempton (2) or Bangor (2) last time out
5/8 – Rated between 133 and 135 (inc)
5/8 – Won between 1-3 times over fences
5/8 – Had run at Aintree before
5/8 – Unplaced favourites
5/8 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
3/8 – Won last time out
2/8 – Winning favourites
2/8 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
2/8 – Trained by N W Alexander (last 2 runnings)
Clan Legend has won the last 2 runnings
The average winning SP in the last 8 runnings is 6/1
RACING AHEAD BEST BET: RIDERS ONTHE STORM
RACING AHEAD DANGER: KNIGHT IN DUBAI
3.15 – Boylesports Extra Place Daily Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) Cl2 (4yo+) 2m4f ITV4
10/11 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
9/11 – Aged 7 or younger
9/11 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
9/11 – Won between 1-2 times before
9/11 – Aged between 5-6 years-old
8/11 – Carried 10-10 or more in weight
8/11 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
7/11 – Won over at least 2m4f before
6/11 – Had run at Aintree before
4/11 – Ran at Aintree (2) or Kempton (2) last time out
4/11 – Winning favourites
4/11 – Won last time out
2/11 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/11 – Trained by Dan Skelton
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 9/2
RACING AHEAD BEST BET: LANGER DAN
RACING AHEAD DANGER: WALKING IN THE AIR
