More excellent jumping action at Ascot and Haydock this Saturday with the ITV cameras heading to both tracks. The Betfair Chase is the highlight from Haydock, while the main event at Ascot is the Christy 1965 Chase – As always, here at RACING AHEAD, we are on hand with all the trends and stats…..
Ascot Horse Racing Trends (ITV/ATR)
2.05 – Chanelle Pharma 1965 Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 2m5f8y ITV
17/19 – Aged 8 or younger
16/19 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
15/19 – Had between 1-4 previous chase wins
14/19 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
14/19 – Had won over this trip (fences) 2m5f or further before
13/19 – Favourites placed
13/19 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or less
12/19 – Won by a French-bred horse
12/19 – Went onto run at the Cheltenham Festival that season
11/19 – Ran at Aintree (4) or Cheltenham (7) last time out
10/19 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
10/19 – Winning favourites (3 joint)
9/19 – Won last time out
8/19 – Won by trainer Paul Nicholls
4/19 – Aged 5 years-old
3/19 – Won by trainer Nicky Henderson
2/19 – Won by trainer Alan King
2/19 – Won by trainer Philip Hobbs
2/19 – Went onto win at the Cheltenham Festival that season (Albertas Run & Vautour, RyanAir Chase 2009 & 2016)
Note: The 2002 running was at Wincanton and the 2004 renewal at Windsor
RACING AHEAD BEST BET: L’HOMME PRESSE
RACING AHEAD DANGER: SAINT CALVADOS
2.40 – Coral Hurdle (Registered As The Ascot Hurdle Race) (Grade 2) Cl1 2m3f58y ITV
20/20 – Priced 7/2 or less
18/20 – Won over at least 2m 1/2f (hurdles) previously
17/20 – Won a Grade 2 (or better) hurdle race previously
16/20 – Won by and Irish (12) or French (4) bred horse
15/20 – Favourites placed
13/20 – Won their latest race
13/20 – Won between 3-5 times over hurdles previously
12/20 – Had their last race 3 months or longer ago
12/20 – Won by a horse aged 7 or older
11/20 – Won a Grade 1 hurdle race previously
11/20 – Favourites that won (2 joint)
7/20 – Won a hurdles race at Ascot previously
6/20 – Went onto run in that season’s World Hurdle after winning this (1 winner)
5/20 – Went onto race in the Champion Hurdle that same season (4 of 5 finished 4th or better, Faugheen won both renewals in 2014-15
4/20 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
4/20 – Won by the Nicky Henderson stable
3/20 – Trained by Harry Fry (2 of the last 4)
2/20 – Won by the Willie Mullins stable
4 of the last 16 winners were Irish-trained
Note: the 2004 & 2005 renewals were at Windsor
RACING AHEAD BEST BET: CONSTITUTION HILL
RACING AHEAD DANGER: BREWIN’UPASTORM
3.15 – Jim Barry Wines Hurst Handicap Chase Cl2 2m192y ITV
15/16 – Aged between 6 and 9 years-old
15/16 – Had won over fences over 2m (or further) before
14/16 – Priced 8/1 or shorter in the betting
12/16 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
12/16 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
11/16 – Rated 142 or higher
10/16 – Carried 11-0 or more
9/16 – Had raced at Ascot before
9/16 – Ran at either Ascot (4) or Cheltenham (5) last time out
8/16 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
8/16 – Placed favourites
7/16 – Placed horses from the Paul Nicholls yard
6/16 – Won last time out
4/16 – Aged 6 years-old
5/16 – Winning favourites
3/16 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/16 – Trained by Gary Moore
Before Midnight won the race in 2021
RACING AHEAD BEST BET: EDWARDSTONE
RACING AHEAD DANGER: THYME WHITE
Haydock Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)
1.50 – Get Daily Rewards With Betfair Graduation Chase Cl2 (4 yo+) 2m 5 1/2f ITV
11/11 – 0-2 wins over fences
10/11 – Returned 7/2 or shorter
10/11 – Raced in the last 4 weeks
9/11 – Placed in the top 2 last time out
9/11 – Rated between 144-149
8/11 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
7/11 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
7/11 – 0-2 runs over fences before
6/11 – Won last time out
6/11 – Winning favourites
3/11 – Ridden by Sam Twiston-Davies
3/11 – Ridden by Harry Cobden
RACING AHEAD BEST BET: HITMAN
RACING AHEAD DANGER: ITCHY FEET
2.25 – Betfair Stayers’ Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) Cl1 3m ½f ITV
15/17– Aged between 5 and 7 years-old
15/17 – Had won between 1-3 times (hurdles UK) before
14/17 – Carried 10-9 or more
13/17 – Rated between 132 and 143
12/17 – Went onto run at the Cheltenham Festival that season (1 winner, Paisley Park 2019)
11/17 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
9/17 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
9/17 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
9/17 – Placed favourites
8/17 – Won last time out
7/17 – French bred
6/17 – Had raced at Haydock before
4/17 – Trained by David Pipe
3/17 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
2/17 – Trained by Nick Williams
Main Fact won the race in 2020
RACING AHEAD BEST BET: COMPLETE UNKNOWN
RACING AHEAD DANGER: MIGHT I
3.00 – Betfair Chase (Registered as The Lancashire Chase) (Grade 1) Cl1 3m 1 1/2f ITV
17 Previous runnings
15/17 – Won over at least 3m (fences) previously
14/17 – Won by and Irish (4) or French (10) bred horse
14/17 – Won a Grade One chase previously
13/17 – Placed in the top three in their last race
13/17 – Raced at Haydock previously
12/17 – Officially rating of 168 or higher
12/17 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
11/17 – Favourites placed
9/17 – Aged 8 or older
9/17 – Winning distance – 2 ½ lengths or less
8/17 – Won by a previous winner of the race
8/17 – Winning favourites
7/17 – Raced at Wetherby in the Charlie Hall last time out
6/17 – Won their latest race
4/17 – Raced at Aintree last time out
The average winning price in the last 16 runnings is 5/1
Just 1 Irish-trained winner yet
9 of the last 10 winners aged 9 or younger
The Paul Nicholls yard has won the prize in 2006, 2007, 2009, 2011, 2012 & 2014
The Nigel Twiston-Davies yard has won the prize in 2010, 2017, 2018 and 2020 The Tizzard yard has won the race in 2013, 2015, 2016 and 2019
RACING AHEAD BEST BET: A PLUS TARD
RACING AHEAD DANGER: BRISTOL DE MAI
3.35 – My Odds Boost On Betfair Handicap Chase (Gbb Race) Cl2 (4yo+ 0-145) 3m 1 1/2f ITV
11/11 – Aged 9 or younger
10/11 – Carried 10-10 or more in weight
10/11 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
9/11 – Won between 1-3 times over fences
9/11 – Aged between 6-8 years-old
9/11 – Irish (7) or French (2) bred
8/11 – Won a race over at least 3m before
8/11 – Had run at Haydock before
8/11 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
7/11 – Carried 11-6 or more in weight
7/11 – Rated between 135 and 145 (inc)
7/11 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
7/11 – Placed favourites
5/11 – Won last time out
3/11 – Winning favourites (1 joint, 1 co)
RACING AHEAD BEST BET: LORD DU MESNIL
RACING AHEAD DANGER: MUSICAL SLAVE
