As we move into the final few weekends of the turf flat season we’ve another ‘crackerjack’ of a card this Saturday to look forward to as it’s Champions Day at Ascot.
Yes, the Berkshire track is the sole meeting being covered by the ITV cameras this weekend, but with four Group 1’s a Group 2 and a competitive handicap its a card that always has a Royal Ascot feel as the best-of-the best from all ranges of trips lock horns.
So, as always, we’ve got it all covered here on RACING AHEAD with all the key trends, plus our verdict, on each of the LIVE ITV races – we’re confident these trends will point you in the direction of a few winners, or at least help narrow down some of the field to highlight the horses that fit the best profile of past winners – So, let’s get cracking!
Ascot Horse Racing Trends (ITV)
1.25 – Qipco British Champions Long Distance Cup (Group 2) Cl1 2m ITV
17/20 – Raced within the last 5 weeks
17/20 – Won at Listed or better class previously
16/20 – Winning distance – 1 1/2 lengths or less
15/20 – Won at least 5 times previously
14/20 – Returned 9/2 or shorter
14/20 – Favourites placed
13/20 – Aged 5 or older
13/20 – Won over at least 2 miles on the flat previously
11/20 – Raced at least 5 times that season
10/20 – Won their latest race
9/20 – Raced at Longchamp (4), Ascot (2) or Doncaster (3) last time out
9/20 – Favourites that won (1 joint)
6/20 – Irish-trained winners (6 of the last 11)
4/20 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
3/20 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori (2 of the last 7)
2/20 – Trained by Dermot Weld
2/20 – Trained by Alan King (last 2)
2/20 – Ridden by Hollie Doyle (last 2)
2/20 – Trained by John Gosden (2 of the last 7)
Trueshan (11/1) won the race in 2020 and 2021
Since 2011: 6 of the last 11 winners came from stalls 2-4 (inc)
Since 2011: Horses from stall 7 have been placed in 4 of the last 10
The average winning odds in the last 10 runnings is 13/2
RACING AHEAD BEST BET: ELDAR ELDAROV
RACING AHEAD DANGER: TRUESHAN
2.00 – Qipco British Champions Sprint Stakes (Group 1) Cl1 6f ITV
19/20 – Won over 6f previously
19/20 – Won at least 3 times previously
18/20 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
18/20 – Raced at least 4 times that season
17/20 – Won at Listed or better class previously
16/20 – Returned 12/1 or shorter
15/20 – Finished in the top 4 in their latest race
15/20 – Raced at Ascot previously (3 won)
15/20 – Won a Group race previously
14/20 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
13/20 – Raced at Haydock (8), Goodwood (2) or Newbury (3) last time out
11/20 – Favourites placed
4/20 – Won their latest race
4/20 – Favourites that won
2/20 – Ridden by Paul Hanagan (2 of the last 7)
Creative Force (11/2) won the race in 2021
Since 2011: 4 of the last 11 winners have come from stalls 12 (2) or 14 (2)
Since 2011: 5 of the last 11 winners came from double-figure stalls
Since 2011: Horses from stalls 12 placed in 5 of the last 11 runnings
Since 2011: Horses from stalls 14 placed in 4 of the last 11 runnings
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 10/1
Note: The 2005 renewal was run at Newmarket
RACING AHEAD BEST BET: KINROSS (e/w)
RACING AHEAD DANGER: CREATIVE FORCE
2.40 – Qipco British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes (Group 1) Cl1 1m4f ITV
14/14 – Raced 3 or more times that season
13/14 – Won at Listed or better class previously
12/14 – Raced within the last 9 weeks
11/14 – Returned 6/1 or shorter
11/14 – Won at least 3 times previously
10/14 – Finished 1st or 2nd in their last race
10/14 – Won over 1m4f previously
10/14 – Rated 110 or higher
10/14 – Favourites placed
10/14 – Aged 3 years-old
9/14 – Returned between 4/1 and 6/1
7/14 – Won their last race
4/14 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
4/14 – Favourites that won
2/14 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/14 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (2 of last 5 runnings)
2/14 – Trained by John Gosden (2 of the last 6 runnings)
2/14 – Ridden by Jim Crowley (2 of the last 8)
2/14 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori (2 of the last 6)
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 7/1
Eshaada (16/1) won the race in 2021
The last 7 winners came between stalls 6-12 (inc)
3 of the last 11 winners came from stall 11
Note: The 2009 & 2010 renewals were run at Newmarket
RACING AHEAD BEST BET: MIMIKYU (e/w)
RACING AHEAD DANGER: SEA LA ROSA
3.20 – Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (Group 1) Cl1 1m ITV
19/20 – Raced at least 3 times that season
18/20 – Aged 3 or 5 years-old
18/20 – Finished in the top three in their last race
18/20 – Raced at Goodwood, Longchamp or Leopardstown last time out
18/20 – Returned 7/1 or shorter
17/20 – Had won a Group 1 or 2 race previously
16/20 – Favourites placed
16/20 – Raced within the last 5 weeks
12/20 – Won their latest race
10/20 – Raced at Ascot previously (6 won)
10/20 – Won at least 7 times previously
9/20 – Favourites that won
7/20 – Raced at Goodwood last time out
4/20 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
3/20 – Trained by John Gosden (4 in total)
3/20 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
2/20 – Trained by the Hannon yard
Since 1988 only 2 Filly winners (Persuasive 2017 & Minding, 2016)
The Revenant (5/1) won the race in 2020
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 9/2
3 of the last 8 winners were French-trained
10 of the last 13 winners came from stalls 2-8 (inc)
Since 2011: Horses from stall 2 and 7 have won 4 of the last 11 runnings
Note: The 2005 renewal was run at Newmarket
RACING AHEAD BEST BET: INSPIRAL
RACING AHEAD DANGER: THE REVENANT
4.00 – Qipco Champion Stakes (British Champions Middle Distance) (Group 1) Cl1 1m2f ITV
20/20 – Won at least 4 times previously
18/20 – Won between 4 and 8 times previously
18/20 – Aged 5 or younger
18/20 – Won a Group 1 or 2 race previously
17/20 – Finished in the top 3 in their latest race
17/20 – Won over 1m2f previously
15/20 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
15/20 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
14/20 – Raced 5 or more times that season
11/20 – Won their last race
9/20 – Raced at either Longchamp (6) or Goodwood (3) last time out
7/20 – Favourites unplaced
7/20 – Returned a double-figure price
6/20 – Favourites
5/20 – Won by a French-based trainer
3/20 – Ridden by Tom Queally
2/20 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori (2 of last 5)
2/20 – Trained by John Gosden (2 of last 5)
Sealiway (12/1) won the race in 2021
Trainer Aidan O’Brien has just 1 win in the race (Magical, 2019)
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 9/2
RACING AHEAD BEST BET: BAAEED
RACING AHEAD DANGER: ADAYAR
4.40 – Balmoral Handicap (Sponsored By Qipco) Cl2 1m ITV
Just 8 previous runnings
7/8 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
7/8 – Carried between 9-1 and 9-6 in weight
7/8 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
6/8 – Winners drawn 10 or lower
4/8 – Winners ran at Newmarket last time out
4/8 – Previous winners were aged 5 years-old
2/8 – Trained by David O’Meara
2/8 – Ridden by a claiming jockey
1/8 – Winning favourite
Escobar won the race in 2019
The average winning SP in the last 6 runnings is 10/1
Trainers William Haggas, Jessie Harrington, Roger Varian, David O’Meara (2), Roger Charlton, Saeed Bin Suroor and Marcus Tregoning have won the race in the past
Horses from stalls 12 or 13 have been placed in 4 of the last 8 runnings
RACING AHEAD BEST BET: BLUE FOR YOU
RACING AHEAD DANGER: SWEET BELIEVER
