Glorious Goodwood Trends & Free Tips: DAY FIVE (Sat 1st Aug 2020)

It’s panama hats, pimms, plus strawberries and cream galore at the start of August with the 5-day Glorious Goodwood Meeting (Tues 28th July to Sat 1st Aug). As always, the West Sussex track can expect monster crowds throughout the week with a whole host of top-notch contests each day for punters to get stuck into.

So we’ll be on-hand throughout the whole meeting to take you through the key trends for each day’s LIVE ITV races.

We continue on Day FIVE with four LIVE ITV races, including the super-competitive Stewards’ Cup.

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DAY FIVE – Saturday 1st August 2020

1.50 – Unibet Stewards’ Sprint Stakes Handicap (Consolation Race for the Qatar Stewards’ Cup) (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 6f

16/16 – Didn’t win their last race
15/16 – Had won over 6f previously
14/16 – Raced at Goodwood previously
13/16 – Had 4 or more runs that season
12/16 – Won at least 3 times during their career
12/16 – Finished 4th or worse in their last race
12/16 – Favourites unplaced
9/16 – Priced between 8/1 and 12/1 in the market
9/16 – Returned a double-figure price in the market
7/16 – Winning Distance – 1 ¼ lengths or more
7/16 – Raced at either York (3) or Newmarket (4) last time out
3/16 – Trained by Clive Cox
3/16 – Favourites (one in the last 14 years)
1/16 – 3 year-old winners
2019 Winner: Poyle Vinnie (20/1)
13 of the last 14 winners carried 9-0 or more
10 of the last 14 winners carried between 9-0 and 9-5
Just 1 winner from stall 1 in the last 14 runnings

A tricky race to get going with on the final day of Glorious Goodwood, but at least some decent trends to apply. With ALL of the last 16 winners failing to win their last race this is a negative for Rewaayat, Treacherous, May Remain and Saluti. 13 of the last 14 winners carried 9-0 or more in weight so this is also a negative for horses 13,14,15,16 and 17. While 10 of the last 14 winners carried between 9-0 and 9-5 – this is a plus for only MAY REMAIN, BATCHELOR BOY and SPIRITED GUEST. Of that trio, BATCHELOR BOY (e/w) stands out with Ryan Moore booked to ride too. This consistent 3 year-old has been running well over 5f this season, but the step up to 6f here will suit and has won over this trip in the past too. He’s also yet to finish out of the top 5 from his 8 career runs and the Marco Botti yard have been amongst the winners of late too. Of the rest, the already mentioned Rewaayat will have it’s fans after two good wins, but seems to have a lot of weight (9-10) so will need to improve again. So, the other pick is MAY REMAIN – who also fits the key weight trend. Yes, he won last time out and that might be a negative, but he’s a course winner and seems well in himself since racing returned with four top-three finishes.

 

2.25 – Unibet Summer Stakes (Handicap) Cl2 1m6f ITV

16/17 – Had won at least twice before
15/17 – Had won over at least 1m4f before
14/17 – Aged either 4 or 5 years-old
14/17 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
11/17 – Carried 9-7 or more
10/17 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
10/17 – Rated between 90-100
10/17 – Placed favourites
9/17 – Came from the top three in the betting
5/17 – Winning favourites
5/17 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
5/17 – Trained by Mark Johnston
4/17 – Won last time out
3/17 – Ran at Ascot last time out
2/17 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
No winner from stall 1 in the last 14 runnings
Horses from stalls 12, 13 & 14 have good e/w records in recent years (2019 1st Stall 14, 2nd Stall 12)
8 of the last 12 winners came from stalls 10-14 (inc)
2019 Winner: King’s Advice (7/2 fav)

The Mark Johnston runner – KING’S ADVICE (e/w) – won this race 12 months ago and despite losing his way a bit since might be worth forgiving those recent runs. He ran on the AW two runs ago at Newcastle and then on softer than ideal ground last time at HQ – so did have a few excuses. The Johnston yard have also won this race 5 times in the last 17 runnings He’s also dropped 2lbs for that last run and is now 4lbs lower than when winning this 12 months ago. The Johnston camp also run THEMAXWECAN and HOCHFLED, and with all three of this runners looking decent prices it might be a race we can have a small interest in them all. Of the rest, the Stoute runner Laafy will be all the rage too with Ryan Moore riding. This 4 year-old has run well in his last two races but another 3lb hike in the weights makes life harder. Platitude is a proven CD winner at the track and looks to be running into form, while cases can be made for Shailene, Calling The Wind and Indianapolis, but I’m happy to have the Johnston trio onside against the others.

 

3.00 – Qatar Lillie Langtry Stakes (Group 2) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 1m6f ITV

15/17 – Had won over at least 1m4f before
14/17 – Had raced 2 or more times already that season
13/17 – Finished in the top three last time out
13/17 – Returned 15/2 or shorter in the betting
12/17 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
10/17 – Had run at Goodwood before
9/17 – Unplaced favourites
9/17 – Won last time out
5/17 – Winning favourites
3/17 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
3/17 – Ridden by Tom Queally
9 of the last 14 winners came from stalls 4-6 (inc)
2019 Winner: Enbihaar (7/2 co-fav)

Only four runners here and all eyes will be on ENBIHAAR, who won this race 12 months ago. This Maktoum-owned runner is the top-rated in the field and should be spot-on for this after running a fair fourth at Newmarket last month. The step up to 1m6f will help and she had the measure of Manuela De Vega in this race last season by an easy 5 lengths. Yes, that horse seems to have improved since and heads here in top form having won her last two, but the only two times she’s tried this 1m6f trip she’s been beaten so does have some stamina questions to answer for me. Snow represents the Aidan O’Brien yard and has Ryan Moore riding – she ran well to be fifth in the Irish Oaks and could improve over this longer trip. Cabaletta makes up the four, but is certainly no back number after winning a Listed race over 1m4f last time out. She looks an improver – however, was put in her place by Manuela De Vega at Haydock recently so does have some ground to make up on that runner.

 

3.35 – Unibet Cup (Stewards´ Cup) (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 6f ITV

17/17 – Had won over 6f before
16/17 – Aged 6 or younger
16/17 – Had at least 3 previous career wins to their name
16/17 – Had 3 or more previous runs that season
12/17 – Raced at either Ascot, York or Newmarket last time out
11/17 – Aged either 4 or 5 years-old
11/17 – Placed favourites (top 4)
10/17 – Carried 9-1 or less
9/17 – Raced at Goodwood before
9/17 – Placed 1st or 2nd last time out
6/17 – Favourites (1 joint, 1 co)
2/17 – Trained by Roger Charlton
2/17 – Trained by William Haggas
3/17 – Winning 3 year-olds
2019 Winner: Khaadem (4/1 fav)
11 of the last 15 winners came from a double-figure draw

The William Haggas runner – NAHAAR – has been very well supported for this all week and with the yard having a top record in this race it’s easy to see why. This 4 year-old looks to have been laid out for the race and after an easy win at Newbury last time out is the type that could easily go onto be better than a handicapper. He’s up 7lbs for that win but did it nicely that day (2 ¼ lengths) and prior to that was a decent third in the Silver Wokingham Stakes at Royal Ascot – so far his form over 6f reads 1-1-3-1! Meraas was a nice winner at Hamilton last time out and is another to note from the Mark Johnston yard but is up 6lbs for that and despite Johnston having a top record at this meeting, this race has actually so far eluded the stable! Course winners Chairmanoftheboard and Kimifive (10th last year) are others to note, but the other pick is the Ryan Moore-ridden WATAN (e/w). This 4 year-old is another CD winner here and should be a lot better for a recent second at Newbury behind Nahaarr – yes, he’s got 2 ¼ lengths to find on that horse, but is a bit better off at the weights this time. Summerghand was 4th in this race last year, plus Gulliver (6th last year) and the Wokingham Stakes winner Hey Jonesy should be in the mix too, while of those at a bigger price – OPEN WIDE (e/w) – has to be considered as he was runner-up in this race last year and is 3lbs lower this time.

4.10 – Qatar Handicap Cl2 (3yo 0-105) 7f ITV

10/10 – Carried 9-4 or less
9/10 – Had run in the last 3 weeks
8/10 – Won over 7f before
8/10 – Drawn in stall 7 or lower
8/10 – Won 2 or 3 times before
7/10 – Rated between 91-96
7/10 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
5/10 – Irish bred
4/10 – Won last time out
4/10 – Had run at Goodwood before
4/10 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
3/10 – Trained by Mark Johnston
2/10 – Ridden by Silvestre De Sousa
2/10 – Ridden by Joe Fanning
1/10 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 8/1

This has been another good race for the Mark Johnston yard at this meeting so their course winner – Homespin – enters calculations. But with a 23% record at the track with his 3 year-olds then trainer Sir Michael Stoute’s runner – SOCIETY LION – gets the call. He was a fair second at Doncaster last time out and despite being a beaten favourite that day the battle he had with the eventual winner should have taught him a lot. Ryan Moore, who has won on the horse in the past, also takes over in the saddle. King Ragnar is another to respect but the main danger can come from the William Haggas runner – Cold Front. The yard have a 25% record with their 3 year-olds at the course and he’s another that was a good winner last time out after bolting up by 4 lengths at Haydock. He’s into a handicap for the first time so more n his plate but looks an improving sort and it would be a shock if he’s not in the mix too. But a chance is also taken on HOMESPIN (e/w) of those at bigger prices. This Johnston runner ran too bad to be true last time out at HQ but became unbalanced that day so the track clearly didn’t suit. He’s won at Goodwood before though so the yard sending him back there looks a good move.

 

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