Way back in August 2004, Joe Conboy contributed a system to our popular Systemwatch feature that appeared to have some potential.
The rules were simple:
Non-handicaps
Favourite priced at 2-1 or more
Placed 1,2,3 latest
Distance winner
That all seems logical enough and, at the time, it produced some decent results. Joe only monitored it for around a month but in that time, the results were Bets 15, Winners 6 for a 2.7-point profit.
OK, not enough to start thinking about the holiday home in the Bahamas but a fair strike-rate and a small profit.
So let’s bring things right up to date with the help of www.horseracebase.com which features one of the best system-building databases around.
Feeding in the rules gave the following outcome on all selections since 2003 for UK racing, Flat and jumps: Bets 2275, Wins 561 (24.66% strike-rate) for a loss of 275.25 points.
So not spectacular, but not awful either and it may be possible to drill deeper and extract some profit from those figures.
So let’s break it down by Flat and jumps to see if there’s any potential there.
Surprisingly, the strike-rates for Flat, jumps and all-weather are very similar at either 24 or 25%, although losses are much bigger for National Hunt racing despite the similar strike-rate.
Sometimes gut feeling comes in and my gut says this looks like more of a Flat system so we’ll concentrate on the level.
The UK/Ireland split is very interesting with the strike-rate in Ireland 27% albeit from just 165 bets and 45 winners.
That adds up to a loss of only half a point so there is definite potential for this method in Ireland, despite the small number of bets.
Looking at race types, the gold is unlocked!
Breaking down by race types shows that Selling races is where this system comes into its own.
By concentrating on non-handicap sellers, we get 158 bets, 58 wins (36% strike-rate) for a profit of 53 points.
There are also excellent profits here from backing each-way, with just over 65% of selections hitting the frame for a similar profit to the win bets — with much shorter losing runs of course.
So you’ll only be getting around 20 bets per season but they will be worth waiting for! To recap the rules:
UK or Ireland
Flat racing only
Non-handicap sellers
Horse must be favourite at 2-1 or
bigger
Distance winner
Must have been 1,2 or 3 last time out
I’m a real believer in having a portfolio of different systems much in the way a share dealer has a portfolio of stocks.
This one won’t be in play very often but, allied to a range of other weapons in your armoury, can play its part in bringing home profits season in, season out.
STEPHEN MULLEN
