By Sean Trivass
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It may be a week later than normal but that takes nothing away from the Dubai World Cup meeting this year, and although that means I miss the Grand National, it’s a small price to pay for some time in the sunshine and one of the best meetings of the entire season.
Having arrived a day early (cheaper flights that way thanks to Swiss Air), it was time to meet up with my international journalist colleagues in my case for the first time this year, and let’s face it, with runners from around the globe I was looking for input from those who know their raiders far better than I could ever hope to.
I do NOT enjoy getting up stupidly early but I do enjoy watching the horses during their morning trackwork so dragging myself out of the pit at silly o’clock on Wednesday morning and grabbing a (much needed) coffee, I started the chit-chat in the hope of grabbing some useful nuggets of information, which I will use alongside the -book before drawing any conclusions, good or bad.
The rest of the week was spent pretty much doing the same and then making notes once I got back to my room, with the exceptions of a meal out or two when the opportunity arose – there are so many good food options here in Dubai it’s diet time when I get home.
Notes made, trainers jockeys and colleagues “interrogated”, excuses ready, and it was soon time to draw some conclusions for what was sure to be a race meeting to remember – hopefully for all the best reasons.
With entrants from 13 racing jurisdictions and 35 individual Group or Grade 1 winner originally declared, I have to be honest and add that this is a genuine “World” meeting albeit very early in the season as far as us Europeans are concerned, and deserves all the support it needs as a meeting point for the very best from whatever continent, and I hope it grows and continues to do so long after I have been wheeled off to pastures new.
Below are my thoughts on the racing for the big day – in brief for the dirt races where we don’t have a challenger and the form may as well be in Greek to me – and with a little bit more to read for the turf events – excuses to follow in my post-racing review with the temperature a potential number one – it is going to be scorching hot on race day and who knows how the Europeans will handle it?
Race 1 – Dubai Kahayla Classic Group 1 – For Purebred Arabians – 2000 metres Dirt- $1,000,000
Pure-bred Arabian races are really big throughout the Middle East – but that does not mean I have the vaguest idea about the form so off to a bad start.
Tilal Al Khalediah is a machine having won fourteen of his seventeen career starts and with a two out of two record here at Meydan including a very easy win in last year’s renewal.
It seems unlikely too many bookmakers at home in the UK will be taking this contest but if they do, he seems by far the likeliest winner.
Race 2 – Dubai Gold Cup Group 2 – 3200 metres Turf – $1,000,000
2023 St Leger winner Continuous heads the early markets here, but Aidan O’Brien’s five-year-old has only one once from eight races since and does not look as bulletproof as his odds imply.
Unsurprisingly, Godolphin like a winner on their home turf, and although Trawlerman has a similar profile (three places but no wins last season), he looks the better value, possibly even each way.
Third to Kyprios at Ascot in October last year, he is officially the highest rated horses in the line-up and with William Buick in the saddle, he should give us a good run for our money, while Terms Of Endearment is another to consider on her first start for William Haggas in receipt of 4lb from her male rivals.
Race 3 – Godolphin Mile Group 2 – 1600 metres Dirt – $1,000,000
Doug O’Neill has never been anything but popular to the best of my knowledge, and when he has the right ammunition, he is as good at placing his horses as anyone I can think of.
Californian-based and a larger than life character, he has already won this contest twice including last season with Two Rivers Over.
A certain Frankie Dettori is set to ride Raging Torrent, his 2025 contender, and for those with good memories, Frankie is a handy jockey to have on your side here at Meydan.
As for the four-year-old Maximus Mischief colt, he won last time out over a furlong shorter at Santa Anita but his trainer insists there are no stamina issues and that this race will be his ideal.
Dropping to Group Two company for the first time since beating more than useful yardstick The Chosen Vron at Del Mar last August where he battled back once passed, he certainly has both the form and a very willing attitude, and if he gets the mile all things seem possible – including a flying dismount!
Race 4 – Al Quoz Sprint Group 1 – 1200 metres Turf – $1,500,000
Speed is of the essence here and in West Acre Newmarket trainer George Scott has a gelding with that in abundance.
A son of Mehmas who cost a relatively sensible £95,000 as a yearling, he apparently injured himself the day before his planned debut as a juvenile, but he has made up for lost time since with four wins and two second places from just the six starts.
Once again, the Dubai World Cup team sent us links to an interview with the trainer where he seemed pretty bullish about his each way chances, if a little wary that he would be up against some more seasoned and battled-hardened rivals.
His last three starts have all been here at Meydan with a head second to Symbol Of Honour over this C&D followed by two comfortable and impressive wins over shorter, leading late on each time.
Audience looks interesting dropping back in trip as does the consistent Believing, but I am hopeful if not confident I have made the best choice – we shall soon see.
Race 5 – UAE Derby Group 2 – 1900 metres Dirt – $1,000,000
You don’t often see a filly taking on the colts in a Derby wherever it may be run, but we have a proper battler here in the shape of UAE Oaks winner Queen Azteca who is the sole Scandinavian representative on the night.
I cannot personally see her getting the better of some of the colts, and she may be bullied out of things by her bigger stronger rivals, but she won’t go under without a fight and could yet run into a place.
As for my suggestion for the winner, Brad Cox seems pretty sweet on the chances of Flood Zone, and unless there is something special hiding among the Japanese runners, he will do for me.
Photo credit DWC/Liesl King
His last run saw a very comfortable success at Aqueduct and his trainer will know exactly how good the three-year-old really is (though I won’t pretend he is a confident selection), while we all need to keep our fingers crossed for a big run from the Jamie Osborne trained Heart Of Honour, the UK’s sole representative.
Race 6 – Dubai Golden Shaheen Group 1 – 1200 metres Dirt – $2,000,000
Drews Gold runs here for UAE trainer Julio Olascoaga and although yet to recapture any of his better American form since arriving in Dubai, discount him at your peril.
Slowly away in both January and March, that has to be a big concern for his supporters, but his trainer has been working away in the background to try and iron out those issues, and if he breaks smartly, he could give the locals something to cheer about.
Sadly, I cannot see him winning (he has too many questions to answer), and the betting suggests we are looking at a straight fight between Straight No Chaser and Tuz, the first named trained in the United States by Dan Blacker and the second a local hope in the care of Bhupat Seemar, and the winner of his last five starts including this race last season by over six lengths.
England born American trainer Dan Blacker seemed confident enough at a press conference Thursday morning, and I can but hope that confidence is not misplaced.
Race 7 – Dubai Turf Group 1 – 1800 metres Turf – $5,000,000
Normally this would be the race where we had our best chance of success and that may still be the case, but only if Romantic Warrior fails to bring his A game.
The Hong Kong superstar is head and shoulders ahead of these on all known form, winning eight of his last nine races, and losing nothing in defeat in Saudi when second on his only start ever on the dirt.
If he is over those efforts (and he looks a picture I assure you), then this is all over bar the shouting, and even at odds-on there is plenty to like.
Ghostwriter is my each way alternative with trainer Clive Cox suggesting he has strengthened over the winter, and if he can repeat any of his better form (fourth in the English 2000 Guineas and the French Derby, third in the Eclipse, and the Juddmonte International, and fifth in the Irish Champion Stakes), then he won’t be a million miles away at the finish, and at 16/1 as I write, he is a tempting place option alongside top Japanese filly Liberty Island who is anything but a slouch and could be the one to make the jolly pull out all the stops.
Race 8 – Longines Dubai Sheema Classic – 2410 metres Turf – $6,000,000
Lambourn trainer Owen Burrows is hoping for a big, possibly placed run from Epsom Derby fourth Deira Mile, and after watching a Dubai World Cup trainer interview (thanks again Laura), the four-year-old has apparently improved at home since returning with an acceptable if not earth shattering sixth in a valuable Group Two handicap at Riyadh in February, his first start since his St Leger fourth.
He may get involved where it matters, and I would not put anyone off considering a small interest, but beating Calandagan just looks too huge an ask training.
Photo credit DWC/Liesl King
Lightly raced with just the eight career starts, four of them victories, he has won on going ranging from heavy to good to firm, with an unlucky second to Anmaat in the Champion Stakes at Ascot his latest start in October 2024.
Slowly away and then short of room that day he did well to go under by half a length at the line, gunned down late on after looking the likeliest winner.
He has been spotted moving well in the mornings all week without being asked to do too much by his work rider, and looks a picture in the early Dubai sunshine, much to the delight of the many photographers.
Rebels Romance is an obvious danger for Charlie Appleby and William Buick after his wins around the globe (Kempton, Doha, Meydan, Sha Tin, Cologne, Del Mar, and AL Uqda since December 2023), while the Marco Botti team are pretty sweet on the chances of Hong Kong Vase winner Giavellotto in what could well turn out to be one of the most competitive contests of the entire card.
Add in a hat full of Japanese raiders, possibly headed by Cervinia (too big at 16/1) who was talked up by jockey Christophe-Patrice Lemaire when I spoke to him Thursday morning
Race 9 – Dubai World Cup – 2000 metres Dirt – $12,000,000
I always find myself feeling a little bit disappointed that the highlight of the night and one of the World’s most valuable races sees no European runners thanks to the unfamiliar dirt surface.
I see it as only a matter of time before someone builds a dirt gallop in Newmarket or elsewhere, with the Saudi Cup, Dubai World Cup, and Breeders’ Cup classic and others all too valuable to ignore for very much longer.
Until then, we have to sit back and watch horses from other jurisdictions pick up the big bucks, and it will be a shock if the winner isn’t Forever Young, possibly the best Japanese dirt horse of all time.
Photo credit DWC/Liesl King
Last time out he wore down Romantic Warrior in the Saudi Cup (with the first two over 10 lengths clear) which is easily the best form on offer, though if you are taking the odds-on, there is a chance that race took plenty out of him – maybe.
He is hard to oppose, and I cannot even find a sensible each way alternative – he is just that much better than these and he may have frighted off some of the potential American challengers.
Sean’s Bets:
Win double Romantic Warrior (Dubai Turf) and Forever Young (Dubai World Cup)
Win single Raging Torrent Godolphin Mile
