Another stacked card from Meydan and Godolphin would appear to have every base covered in the 17:55 Mina Al Hamriya Handicap.
Charlie Appleby has the overnight favourite in the race Cat O’Mountain and Saeed Bin Suroor saddles the remaining trio. While Appleby’s charge does look to have the best form in the race I find it difficult to be too enthusiastic about a horse that’s returning from a 468-day lay-off. Effectively, it’s the price of the horse that is the issue. While the trainer’s record from such lay-offs certainly isn’t poor, it’s not exceptional either and it’s the horse’s debut on dirt. It should be more of a 7/2 – 4/1 shot in my book.
I thought Flag War for Freddy Tylicki and Bin Suroor looked more interesting than most in a race hotter than the local weather but his draw out in stall 10 gives him a tougher task than most and, while he may be able to stay out of the way of the kickback, he’s certainly going to be racing wider and covering more ground than two of his stablemates. Think Ahead is one with a more desirable draw and is the choice of James Doyle but I’m not convinced he’s going to love the surface based on his pedigree/high knee action. He could be one to look out for if they switch him to turf later in the carnival. The remaining Godolphin challenger Good Contact would probably have the weakest form of the four but being the progeny of Teofilo he should appreciate the surface and the draw isn’t insurmountable. That said, I’d want compensation a fair bit greater than 8/1 to start becoming interested as a betting proposition.
All in all, it should be a fascinating race, a race that should hold some clues to the rest of the carnival but, as a betting proposition, it’s a pass.
Another tricky race immediately prior to that is the 5.20 Singspiel Listed Stakes. Big Baz looks as reliable as ever and could do well in Meydan but I have a nagging feeling he’s better on softer ground. The horse with the best form in the race and this week’s selection is Farraaj. The lightly-raced seven-year-old has solid Group 1 form to his name and was highly thought of at his previous stable. If he retains that same level of ability, he wins. His last run should be ignored, that was on dirt at Jebel Ali and trainer Dhruba Selvaratnam reported before the race he would be in need of that run and the turf races at the carnival would be the primary target. He should be able to sit just off the leaders and I expect jockey Chris Hayes to send him for home coming off the final bend. Paul Hanagan‘s mount Mujaarib should be arriving late on the scene but he’s not best drawn in 3 to employ those tactics and I expect the selection to outclass his rivals here.
