One of the highlights of the jump calendar this Saturday as we’ve day two of the Cheltenham November Meeting – four LIVE ITV races to take in from Prestbury Park that include the Paddy Power Gold Cup, while we’ve also two decent Listed races at Lingfield as the AW winter season starts to move up a few notches.
Did you know that 12 of the last 20 Paddy Power Gold Cup winners were aged 6 or 7 years-old?
So, as always, we’ve got it all covered here at RACING AHEAD with all the key trends, plus our verdict, on each of the LIVE ITV races – we’re confident these trends will point you in the direction of a few winners, or at least help narrow down some of the field to highlight the horses that fit the best profile of past winners – So, let’s get GOING!
Cheltenham Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV)
1.45 – From The Horse’s Mouth Podcast Novices´ Chase (Grade 2) (Registered As The November) (GBB Race) Cl2 2m ITV
11/11 – Returned 13/2 or shorter in the betting
11/11 – Finished first or second last time out
10/11 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
10/11 – Favourites placed in the first three
10/11 – Won between 0-1 times over fences
8/11 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
8/11 – Won last time out
8/11 – Had raced at Cheltenham before (hurdles/chase)
7/11 – Ran at Cheltenham (3), Aintree (2) or Uttoxeter (2) last time out
5/11 – French bred
5/11 – Winning favourites
3/11 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/11 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
2/11 – Trained by Dan Skelton
RACING AHEAD BEST BET: MONMIRAL
RACING AHEAD DANGER: BANBRIDGE
2.20 – Paddy Power Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Grade 3) (GBB Race) Cl1 (4yo+) 2m4f ITV
20/20 – Had run at Cheltenham before
19/20 – Had won over at least 2m4f over fences before
19/20 – Won by a UK-based trainer
16/20 – Returned 14/1 or shorter in the betting
14/20 – Carried 11st or less
14/20 – Had won at Cheltenham before
14/20 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
12/20 – Aged 6 or 7 years-old
12/20 – Had won just 2 or 3 times over fences before
11/20 – Trained by Pipe (3), Jonjo O’Neill (3), Nicholls (2) or Twiston-Davies (3)
10/20 – Placed favourites
9/20 – Won by a horse in the first 3 in the betting
9/20 – Aged 7 years-old
8/20 – Won this on their seasonal reappearance
5/20 – Won their last race
5/20 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
4/20 – Trained by the Pipe stable
3/20 – Winning favourites
3/20 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
3/20 – Trained by Jonjo O’Neill
3/20 – Ran at Carlisle last time out
2/20 – Ridden by Sam Twiston-Davies
1/20 – Irish-trained winners
The last winner aged in double-figures was in 1975
Paul Nicholls has saddled 11 placed horses (two winners, Al Ferof & Caid Du Berlais) from his last 43 runners
The average winning SP in the last 20 years is 10.5/1
RACING AHEAD BEST BET: GA LAW
RACING AHEAD DANGER: IL RIDOTO
2.55 – Paddy Power Games Handicap Hurdle (Listed Race) Cl1 3m1f67y ITV
18/20 – Aged 7 or younger
17/20 – Had between 2 and 5 previous hurdles wins
16/20 – Had won over at least 2m4f (hurdles) before
15/20 – Carried 10-11 or less in weight
15/20 – Winning distance – 3 ½ lengths or less
14/20 – Ran at either Cheltenham (7), Aintree (4) or Chepstow (3) last time out
14/20 – Irish bred
13/20 – Placed favourites
13/20 – Officially rated 126 to 137
13/20 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
12/20 – Ran within the last 4 weeks
12/20 – Had run at Cheltenham before
9/20 – Won their last race
7/20 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
7/20 – Returned 11/4 or shorter in the betting
4/20 – Won by the Pipe stable
2/20 – Ridden by Tom O’Brien (2 of last 4)
2/20 – Ridden by Tom Scudamore (2 of last 10)
1/20 – Won by an Irish-trained stable
5 of the last 14 winners have had a claiming jockey riding
On The Blind Side (7/1) won the race in 2020
RACING AHEAD BEST BET: PADLEYOUROWNCANOE
RACING AHEAD DANGER: ON THE BLIND SIDE
3.30 – Paddy Power Feel Like A Favourite Intermediate Handicap Hurdle Cl3 2m5f26y ITV
15/17 – Won between 1-2 times over hurdles before
15/17 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
13/17 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
12/17 – Raced in the last 7 weeks
9/17 – Had run at Cheltenham before
8/17 – Irish-bred winners
8/17 – Returned a double-figure price
7/17 – Favourites unplaced
7/17 – Carried 10-13 or less
6/17 – Went onto finish in the top 4 in a race at the Cheltenham Festival
6/17 – Won last time out
5/17 – French bred winners
3/17 – Ridden by Sam Twiston-Davies
3/17 – Winning favourites
2/17 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2 of the last 9 winners went onto be placed in the Martin Pipe Conditionals race at the Cheltenham Festival that season
2 of the last 13 winners went onto be placed in the Stayers’ Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival that season
RACING AHEAD BEST BET: ELLE PERFECTA
RACING AHEAD DANGER: WISEGUY
Lingfield Horse Racing Trends (ATR/ITV)
2.35 – Betway Golden Rose Stakes (Listed Race) (All-Weather Fast Track Qualifier) Cl1 (3yo+) 6f ITV
14/15 – Previous winner over 6f or 7f
13/15 – Didn’t win last time out
13/15 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
13/15 – Aged 4 or older
12/15 – Had raced in the last 6 weeks
12/15 – Won 5 or more times before
10/15 – Drawn in stall 6 or higher
10/15 – Unplaced last time out
8/15 – Unplaced favourites
4/15 – Ran at Doncaster last time out
5/15 – Winning favourites
Judicial won the race in 2019
RACING AHEAD BEST BET: JUDICAL
RACING AHEAD DANGER: SUMMERGHAND
3.10 – Betway Churchill Stakes (Listed Race) (All-Weather Fast Track Qualifier) Cl1 (3yo+) 1m2f ITV
14/16 – Returned 15/2 or shorter in the betting
13/16 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
11/16 – Rated between 102 and 112
10/16 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
10/16 – Won between 1-4 times before
11/16 – Favourites placed in the top two
11/16 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
9/16 – Placed last time out
6/16 – Winning favourites
3/16 – Trained by Saeed Bin Suroor (2 of the last 7)
2/16 – Trained by John Gosden (2 of the last 3)
8 of the last 9 winners drawn in stalls 7 or lower
RACING AHEAD BEST BET: HARROVIAN
RACING AHEAD DANGER: MISSED THE CUT
