Charlie Appelby has had success training English classic winners but is still waiting for his first 1000 Guineas winner. Will that change on May 4 when the English trainer saddles Desert Flower in the 1000 Guineas?
Desert Flower has won all four of her races and is as short as 11/8 with horse racing sites to win at Newmarket on Sunday May 4 as per Horse.bet. After a winning debut in a Class 3 race at Newmarket (where three of his four races have been held), her next race was a class lower and produced another victory.
The filly was swiftly upped in class and won the Group 2 May Hill Stakes at Doncaster. That was run over a mile which is the same distance as the 1000 Guineas. Desert Flower won by a length-and-a-half from January and took on that rival in her next race too.
Returning to Newmarket, there was even more distance between the pair when the two-year-old won the Group 1 bet365 Fillies’ Mile. Desert Flower went clear and finished five-and-a-half lengths ahead of January. That race was run on good to soft ground.
Desert Flower has winning form on both good and good to firm ground and looks to have an excellent chance of winning the 1000 Guineas. At present, the three-year-old is also the 8/1 favourite to win the Epsom Oaks in June. Those odds are likely to shorten substantially if the 1000 Guineas is won but the filly does face strong opposition.
Aidan O’Brien has trained the winner of the 1000 Guineas on seven occasions. His last winner was four years ago but as usual, the Irish trainer has a strong hand in this race. He trains Lake Victoria who is the 6/1 second favourite. At those odds, the filly is well worth an each-way bet to win this year’s 1000 Guineas.
Lake Victoria won all five of her races last year. That included two wins at Newmarket, both in group races. The Group 3 Sweet Solera Stakes was won over seven furlongs last August. The following month was even more success with two Group 1 races won.
The first was at the Curragh before returning to Newmarket to win the Juddmonte Cheveley Park Stakes. While the first of those wins was over seven furlongs, the Newmarket win was over a furlong less and ran on soft ground.
Her season wasn’t over though and a trip across the Atlantic followed. That saw Lake Victoria win the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf which was run over a mile. It was a strong performance at the end of a season and having to travel to the US.
Ger Lyons is due to run the Frankel filly Red Letter. The grey is 7/1 to win the 1000 Guineas but only won one of her three races as a two-year-old. That sole victory came in July in a maiden run over seven furlongs at the Curragh. Her debut had taken place on the same course in June, finishing second behind Lake Victoria.
The two rivals met again in the Moyglare Stud Stakes at the Curragh last September. On that occasion, Red Letter could only finish fourth but did well to get within two lengths of Lake Victoria after losing her position approaching the final furlong. Red Letter has something to find with Lake Victoria but has place claims for this classic.
Aidan O’Brien also has Bedtime Story entered for this race. Again, this is a runner that has good each-way claims. This contender also has Frankel as her sire and made an impressive debut at Ascot last June. A Class 1 listed race was won by nine-and-a-half lengths and that was followed by two more wins in Ireland with success in Group 3 and Group 2.
Her unbeaten record ended in the Group 1 Moyglare Stud Stakes when only able to finish fifth. Bedtime Story went off favourite to win but finished last of the five runners with rivals Lake Victoria and Red Letter among those finishing ahead of her. However, her jockey reported that his ride ended the race lame. If fully fit for the 1000 Guineas, the 20/1 currently available could be a great bet.
Another to consider at 20/1 is Vertical Blue, trained by Francis Henri Grafford. Her first four runs only produced one win but then a major surprise was caused at Longchamp last October when winning a Group 1 race at odds of 33/1.
Desert Flower is going to be hard to beat if she has trained on. Lake Victoria will be a tough opponent and even Bedtime Story could give punters a happy ending.
